开采急倾斜煤层沉陷预测实例研究

沉陷预测是煤炭项目环境影响评价中最核心内容之一,其准确性直接关系到生态保护措施的有效性及可行性。急倾斜煤层由于采深变化大、顶底板条件不同,且没有实测的移动变形参数,采用常规概率积分法预测沉陷范围可能出现的偏差较大。以贵州省仁怀保利煤矿环评为实例,依据不同开采时段,分别采用深度积分及等价工作面方法预测沉陷范围。采用该方法对急倾斜煤层作沉陷预测更加符合实际,为其他类似矿井对环境影响评价的沉陷预测提供了参考。     

基于BG/NBD模型的电信客户终身价值测度研究

在技术水平不断提升以及产品服务趋于同质化的环境下,我国移动通信企业开始由基础网络建设向专业化的增值业务转型,在激烈的市场竞争中,及时准确的挖掘高价值客户,提供个性化的功能业务,提升客户价值,成为各通信企业获取新竞争优势的有效途径之一。在BG/NBD模型的基础上,通过捕捉客户随机交易行为,构建了客户终身价值测度模型,结合电信运营商的客户数据进行客户终身价值预测研究,结果发现,模型在客户整体层面和个体层面均能有效且准确的预测客户终身价值。     

基于贯通综合素养成绩评价基础上的贯通素养教育

我校自2015年开始实施高端技术技能人才贯通培养项目,到今年已经进入第四个招生季。贯通培养项目基础教育阶段财贸素养教育的实施逐渐成为这个项目的关注点。本文通过实证研究,对2015级、2016级及2017级三届贯通学生素养教育的实施和素养成绩的评价进行深入研究,探索出我校贯通培养项目基础教育阶段实施财贸素养教育的教育主题、教育实施体系以及方法和途径。     

职业成长对员工建言行为的影响

基于员工利益视角,整合社会交换理论与关系人口学理论,并探索性地引入员工与主管前摄性人格匹配,可深入研究职业成长对员工建言行为的作用机理。运用多元线性回归分析多个组织的335份员工-主管配对样本数据,结果表明：职业成长对员工建言行为具有正向影响,员工对组织的责任感知在职业成长与建言行为间起到中介作用,员工-主管前摄性人格匹配不仅正向调节职业成长对建言行为的作用,而且正向调节责任感知对建言行为的作用。     

Into the Mussa puzzle: monetary policy regimes and the real exchange rate in a small open economy

Industrial countries moving from fixed to floating exchange rate regimes experience dramatic rises in the variability of the real exchange rate. This evidence, forcefully documented by Mussa [Nominal exchange regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: evidence and implications. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 25 (1986) 117], is a puzzle because it is hard to reconcile with the assumption of flexible prices. This paper lays out a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy that combines nominal price rigidity with a systematic behavior of monetary policy able to approximate a continuum of exchange rate regimes. A version of the model with complete exchange rate pass-through is broadly consistent with Mussa’s findings. Most importantly, this holds independently of the underlying source of fluctuations in the economy, stressing the role of the nominal exchange rate regime per se in affecting the variability of the real exchange rate. However, only a model featuring incomplete exchange rate pass-through can account for a broader range of exchange rate statistics. Finally there exist ranges of values for either the degree of openness or the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods for which the baseline model is also consistent with the empirical insensitivity of output volatility to the type of exchange rate regime, as documented by Baxter and Stockman [Journal of Monetary Economics 23 (1989) 377].     

The Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing under Proportional Transaction Costs in Finite Discrete Time

We prove a version of the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing, which applies to Kabanov's modeling of foreign exchange markets under transaction costs. The financial market is described by a   d × d   matrix-valued stochastic process  (Π _t ) ^T _{t =0}  specifying the mutual bid and ask prices between d assets. We introduce the notion of "robust no arbitrage," which is a version of the no-arbitrage concept, robust with respect to small changes of the bid-ask spreads of  (Π _t ) ^T _{t =0}  . The main theorem states that the bid-ask process  (Π _t ) ^T _{t =0}  satisfies the robust no-arbitrage condition iff it admits a strictly consistent pricing system. This result extends the theorems of Harrison-Pliska and Kabanov-Stricker pertaining to the case of finite Ω, as well as the theorem of Dalang, Morton, and Willinger and Kabanov, Rásonyi, and Stricker, pertaining to the case of general Ω. An example of a  5 × 5  -dimensional process  (Π _t )² _{t =0}  shows that, in this theorem, the robust no-arbitrage condition cannot be replaced by the so-called strict no-arbitrage condition, thus answering negatively a question raised by Kabanov, Rásonyi, and Stricker.     

中国积极财政政策与货币政策效力的比较——对蒙代尔—弗莱明模型的一个修正运用

运用一个修正的MF模型 ,对我国积极财政政策和货币政策的效力进行比较 ,得出在我国现行汇率制度安排下 ,积极财政政策的效果要优于货币政策。当前我国的经济政策应以财政政策为主 ,坚持积极的财政政策 ,淡化扩张性的货币政策。     

Doing Unto Others: The Reciprocity of Helping Behavior in Organizations

Reciprocity is a fundamental aspect of social life, and a phenomenon studied from a wide variety of philosophical, theological, and social scientific perspectives. In this study, we use social exchange theory to investigate why employees help other employees. We hypothesize, based on the norm of reciprocity (Gouldner, 1960), that a significant cause of an employee's helping behavior is how much organizational citizenship behavior (OCB) the employee has received from coworkers. To provide evidence of the discriminant validity of OCB received as an antecedent of helping behavior, we also assess its effects on another form of extra-role behavior, voice, as well as in-role performance. We found, in a sample of 157 employee-supervisor dyads, that OCB received was related to helping behavior after controlling for several antecedents of helping behavior identified in past research, and was less related to voice and in-role behavior, as hypothesized. Implications for theory and practice are presented.     

Segmented asset markets and optimal exchange rate regimes

This paper revisits the issue of the optimal exchange rate regime in a flexible price environment. The key innovation is that we analyze this question in the context of environments where only a fraction of agents participate in asset market transactions (i.e., asset markets are segmented). Under this friction alternative exchange rate regimes have different implications for real allocations in the economy. In the context of this environment we show that flexible exchange rates are optimal under monetary shocks and fixed exchange rates are optimal under real shocks.