Excessive Volatility is Also a Feature of Individual Level Forecasts

The excessive volatility of prices in financial markets is one of the most pressing puzzles in social science. It has led many to question economic theory, which attributes beneficial effects to markets in the allocation of risks and the aggregation of information. In exploring its causes, we investigated to what extent excessive volatility can be observed at the individual level. Economists claim that securities prices are forecasts of future outcomes. Here, we report on a simple experiment in which participants were rewarded to make the most accurate possible forecast of a canonical financial time series. We discovered excessive volatility in individual-level forecasts, paralleling the finding at the market level. Assuming that participants updated their beliefs based on reinforcement learning, we show that excess volatility emerged because of a combination of three factors. First, we found that submitted forecasts were noisy perturbations of participants’ revealed beliefs. Second, beliefs were updated using a prediction error based on submitted forecast rather than revealed past beliefs. Third, in updating beliefs, participants maladaptively decreased learning speed with prediction risk. Our results reveal formerly undocumented features in individual-level forecasting that may be critical to understand the inherent instability of financial markets and inform regulatory policy.     

中国完善生育政策战略研究—基于“十二五”期间放开“单独”的思考

生育政策对人口发展具有先导性、递延性,生育政策通过调控出生人口,渐次影响人口发展全局。须在科学预判人口发展趋势的基础上,不同时期制定不同导向的生育政策。通过测算表明,放开"双独"、"单独"、"全面二孩"等生育政策,分别有占总人口4.1%、18.8%、24.0%的人群获益。应遵循"公平性、时机性、渐进性、均衡性"的原则,逐步完善生育政策。     

Toward Deepening Cultural and Language Understanding: The Design and Practice of a Hybrid Business Chinese Course

This article introduces an ongoing effort to use Internet resources in an Advanced Business Chinese for Professionals (ABCP) course in order to deepen learners’ language and cultural understanding. This course blends face-to-face (F2F) classroom instruction and online communications using Brix, an online course management system developed by the University of Hawai‘i. This article starts with the rationale and necessity of a hybrid course for ABCP and presents an overview of a traditional F2F business Chinese class with its strengths and weaknesses. Following the overview, this article outlines the design of a hybrid environment for this course, detailing its structure, content, and instructional processes. Illustrations of the F2F and online alternations in classroom teaching, online tasks with instructor’s guidance and feedback, and online forum discussion for each unit are offered. Experiences gained in this process regarding instructional intervention, projected learners’ learning outcomes, and interactive peer learning through the Internet will also be shared. Reflections and suggestions on aspects that may impact the success of this approach are proposed for future improvement in an ideal hybrid business language course.     

What patents are used as collateral?—An empirical analysis of patent reassignment data

Only anecdotal evidence exists that ventures use patents as collateral to access debt financing. In this paper, we use a novel dataset on patent reassignments with a security interest to explore quantitatively what patents are used as collateral. We analyze characteristics of patents to disentangle whether it is the technology underlying a patent or the patent's exclusion right per se matters for collateralization. We do find empirical support only for technology-related characteristics, suggesting that lenders use patents to collateralize high-quality technology that can, in case of default, be redeployed to ventures in similar technology fields. On the other hand, patent-related characteristics like scope, which are, in general, related to patent value and are particularly important for non-practicing entities, do not matter.     

External liabilities and crises

We examine the determinants of external crises, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition. Using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970–2011, we find that the ratio of net foreign liabilities to GDP is a significant crisis predictor. This is primarily due to the net position in debt instruments—the effect of net equity liabilities is weaker and net FDI liabilities seem, if anything, an offset factor. We also find that: i) breaking down net external debt into its gross asset and liability counterparts does not add significant explanatory power to crisis prediction; ii) the current account is a powerful predictor; iii) foreign exchange reserves reduce the likelihood of crisis more than other foreign asset holdings; and iv) a parsimonious probit containing those and a handful of other variables has good predictive performance in- and out-of-sample. The latter result stems largely from our focus on external crises sensu stricto.     

Franchisees' trust in and satisfaction with franchise partnerships

This paper aims to establish the relationship between the antecedents of trust, trust itself, and franchisee satisfaction. Taking its cue from power-dependence, international business, and social exchange theories, the paper contributes to the franchise literature by offering a more comprehensive theoretical perspective to aid understanding of trust development in and satisfaction with franchise partnerships. Drawing on a multi-sector survey of Turkish franchisees, the study provides empirical evidence of the impact of the franchisors' role performance and cultural sensitivity on franchisees' trust in and satisfaction with franchise partnerships. Furthermore, this research demonstrates the central role of communication in the development of franchisees' trust.     

居民个人理财工具持有状况分析及理财规划——以镇江为例

随着中国市场经济体制的确立和发展,特别是金融业的发展,居民个人理财工具越来越多,且仍呈发展趋势。本文对理财工具进行了对比,重点将各理财工具的优缺点进行比较分析,并就镇江市居民理财工具持有现状通过调查问卷进行调查研究,最终,对单薪家庭、老年人、中年人和营业主、未婚青年等提出理财规划建议。     

遏制现阶段中国粮食浪费措施的有效性分析

“民以食为天”,粮食安全问题一直是人们关注的焦点。随着人们经济水平的提升和生活质量的提高,餐饮消费日趋火爆,但在餐饮业繁盛的背后是让人痛心的浪费现象。据测算,我国粮食产后仅储藏、运输、加工等环节损失浪费总量达1224．3亿公斤,围绕这一问题,本文分析了我国粮食的基本现状,探讨了我国粮食浪费的主要类型,提出了加大节约粮食的立法力度;强化宣传教育活动;引导消费者摆正消费心态;多环节控制粮食浪费与损失。等遏制粮食浪费的对策。     

人民币汇率的中长期走势

近期人民币汇率贬值幅度较大,引起市场广泛关注。作为基本的宏观价格变量,汇率牵一发而动全身,不仅影响宏观经济走势,还通过国内外商品比价的变化影响经济结构。本文分析了人民币汇率变动原因及人民币贬值对经济的影响,估计了汇率的中长期走势。