Demand for ecolabeled seafood in the Japanese market: A conjoint analysis of the impact of information and interaction with other labels

The use of seafood ecolabels is expanding in the world marketplace, but so are labels indicating other product attributes, such as country of origin and wild vs. farmed. The interactive effects of these labels and attributes in evaluating consumers’ preferences for ecolabeled seafood are relatively unexplored. In this paper we investigate (1) the direct and interactive effects of seafood ecolabels with other common fish labels, and (2) how consumers’ perceptions about the state of marine stocks and the valuation of ecolabels may be affected by different information. We find moderate interactive effects between ecolabels and country of origin labels, whereas the valuation for seafood ecolabels is fairly high. In terms of information, we find that consumers’ perceptions about fish stock levels changed (negatively) after receiving information on declining stock levels, and more sensationalized information led to increased change. However, valuation for a seafood ecolabel increases only when the information was perceived positively (credible/interesting); whereas exaggerated information (which was also perceived less credible) had insignificant effects on WTP.     

Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks and Their Effect on Growth in Sub‐Saharan Africa

Commodity price shocks are an important type of external shock and are often cited as a problem for economic growth in Sub‐Saharan Africa. We choose nine Sub‐Saharan African countries that are heavily dependent on a single agricultural commodity for a significant portion of their income. This paper quantifies the impact of agricultural commodity price shocks using a structural non‐linear dynamic model. The novel aspect of this study is that we determine whether the response of per capita GDP for the selected Sub‐Saharan African countries is different to unexpected increases in agricultural commodity prices as opposed to decreases in prices. We conclude that there is very little evidence that an unanticipated price increase (decrease) will lead to a significantly different response in per capita incomes.     

Was It Possible to Stabilise the Price of Wool? Organised Wool Marketing 1916 to 1970

Wool is the only Australian commodity for which there has been an attempt to organise price stability through a buffer stock scheme (1970–91). Growers pressed for the introduction of a scheme since the early 1920s. We test the veracity of claims that the sale of the stockpiles optimised growers' returns. We also simulate the likely outcomes of the reserve price schemes (RPS) proposed in 1925 and 1952, respectively. Our findings are that post-war stockpile disposals did not optimise wool growers' incomes, the undercapitalised proposed RPS of the 1920s would have collapsed in the depression, and that the post-1952 RPS would have been in considerable difficulty.     

A Systematic Review on the Effects of Personalized Price Promotions for Food Products

Recent decades have witnessed the increasing adoption of personalized price promotion (PPP) at grocery stores. Despite the growing body of research debating whether PPP is more effective than untargeted price promotions, there is no literature synthesizing the relevant evidence on food products. Therefore, we conduct a systematic review to examine empirical findings on the effects of PPP targeting food products. Outcomes of 12 identified studies demonstrate larger sales and profit boosting effects of PPP than its non-personalized counterparts. Meanwhile, the results on how this approach influences consumer behavior are mixed. The effectiveness of PPP varies among different targeting strategies (e.g. reward or cross-selling) and information collection methods (e.g. using within- or across-chain data). The findings of this review have important managerial implications for the future evaluation and application of PPP as well as imply potential directions of further research on this topic.     

Quote inefficiency in options markets

In an arbitrage-free economy with non-zero bid-ask spreads the existence of payoffs whose price is lower than the price of a dominated payoff cannot be discarded in general. However, when the former price corresponds to trivial portfolios which involve buying or selling one unit of the basis assets, its presence, although not an arbitrage, is a severe market anomaly which we refer to as an inefficient quote. In an empirical study, we report evidence that indicates that in options markets both the frequency and the magnitude of these anomalies are substantial and we document puzzling patterns in their behavior.     

Positive welfare effects of trade barriers in a dynamic partial equilibrium model

We develop a simple two-region, cobweb-type dynamic partial equilibrium model to demonstrate the existence of optimal, possibly non-zero, trade barriers. A pure comparative statics analysis of our model suggests that a reduction of trade barriers, modeled as small but positive import tariffs, always enhances welfare. However, taking a dynamic perspective reveals that nonlinear trade interactions between two regions may generate endogenous price fluctuations which can hamper welfare. Finally, we allow special interest groups, such as consumers or producers from these two regions, to lobby for a particular level of trade barriers. Our model predicts that time-varying trade barriers may be another channel for market instability.     

The role of text-extracted investor sentiment in Chinese stock price prediction with the enhancement of deep learning

Whether investor sentiment affects stock prices is an issue of long-standing interest for economists. We conduct a comprehensive study of the predictability of investor sentiment, which is measured directly by extracting expectations from online user-generated content (UGC) on the stock message board of Eastmoney.com in the Chinese stock market. We consider the influential factors in prediction, including the selections of different text classification algorithms, price forecasting models, time horizons, and information update schemes. Using comparisons of the long short-term memory (LSTM) model, logistic regression, support vector machine, and Naïve Bayes model, the results show that daily investor sentiment contains predictive information only for open prices, while the hourly sentiment has two hours of leading predictability for closing prices. Investors do update their expectations during trading hours. Moreover, our results reveal that advanced models, such as LSTM, can provide more predictive power with investor sentiment only if the inputs of a model contain predictive information.     

Seven Fallacies Concerning Milton Friedman's “The Role of Monetary Policy”

This paper analyzes Milton Friedman's (1968a) article “The Role of Monetary Policy,” via a discussion of seven fallacies concerning the article. These fallacies are as follows: (i) “The Role of Monetary Policy” was Friedman's first public statement of the natural rate hypothesis. (ii) The Friedman–Phelps Phillips curve was already present in Samuelson and Solow's (1960) analysis. (iii) Friedman's specification of the Phillips curve was based on perfect competition and no nominal rigidities. (iv) Friedman's (1968a) account of monetary policy in the Great Depression contradicted the Monetary History’s version. (v) Friedman (1968a) stated that a monetary expansion will keep the unemployment rate and the real interest rate below their natural rates for two decades. (vi) The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates invalidates the natural rate hypothesis. (vii) Friedman's (1968a) treatment of an interest-rate peg was refuted by the rational expectations revolution. The discussion lays out the reasons why each of these seven items is a fallacy and infers key aspects of the framework underlying Friedman's (1968a) analysis.     

A Framework for the Simultaneous Measurement of Spatial Variation and Temporal Movement in Prices in a Heterogeneous Country: The Dynamic Household Regional Product Dummy Model

This paper contributes to the growing literature on spatial prices in large heterogeneous countries. While the literatures on spatial variation and temporal movement in prices have grown in parallel, this study marks a departure by providing a unified treatment and proposing a comprehensive framework that allows both approaches. The proposed model is based on twin extensions of the household version of the “country product dummy model” by allowing for a dynamic stochastic specification and interdependence of spatial prices of geographically adjacent regions. Tests of temporal stability and regional independence of the estimated spatial prices are proposed and applied in this paper. The paper shows that the introduction of an autoregressive error process of order one, AR(1), improves the efficiency of the estimates of parameters, urban‐rural and temporal price indices under certain conditions. The Indian application points to a rich potential for using the proposed framework in cross country comparisons such as the International Comparison Program (ICP) exercises.     

Land price diffusion across borders – the case of Germany

ABSTRACT

Land market regulations are often justified by the assumption that activities of foreign and non-agricultural investors drive up prices in domestic land markets. However, empirical knowledge about the dynamics of agricultural land prices across borders is sparse. Using the German reunification as a natural experiment, we study the effect of the former inner German border on the dynamics of agricultural land prices in East and West Germany. We apply a land price diffusion model with an error correction specification to analyse spatial agricultural land markets. A novel feature of our model is its ability to distinguish price diffusion within states and across state borders. We provide evidence for a persistent border effect given that the fraction of spatially integrated counties is larger within states than across the former border. Moreover, we observe non-significant error correction terms for many counties along the former border. From a policy perspective, it is striking to realize that even 25 years after German reunification, pronounced land price differences persist. It is quite likely that price diffusion through existing borders within the EU would take even more time given language barriers, different institutional frameworks, and information asymmetries between domestic and foreign market participants.