Impact of state-dependent oil price on US stock returns using local projections

In this paper, we investigate the impact of oil prices on both aggregate and industry US real stock returns over the period 1973–2017. The empirical analysis contributes to the related literature introducing a state-dependent oil price (high and low) and the local projections approach. Our main finding is that, depending on the nature of the shock and industry, the negative effects of oil price shocks become exacerbated -and the positive effects get moderated- if oil prices are already high.     

美国生物技术企业市场定价及启示

生命科学和生物技术行业不断凸现出投资价值,其日益受到证券市场的青睐,生物技术公司成为了投资者追捧的对象.由于该产业在我国的发展刚刚起步,企业在获取投资者认可等方面还存在很多问题.通过对美国生物技术行业主要上市公司的数据分析,探索了该类企业在证券市场定价的一般规律.     

地价杠杆在城市经营中的调控作用——以南京市为例

本文紧密结合经营城市这个热点问题，首次系统地阐述了地价杠杆在城市经营中的重要作用。并结合南京市1998－1999年的土地出让实际工作成果，运用文中提出的观点，设立不同的口径进行详细分析与对照。通过综合分析与尝试，一方面，说明地价杠杆在政府经营城市的过程中具有不可替代的地位；另一方面，城市政府完全可以运用地价杠杆的经济特性，趋利避害，更好地促进国民经济的健康有序发展。     

How fiscal policy affects housing market dynamics: Evidence from Spain

This paper studies how the announcements of fiscal law changes affect the real estate market, focusing on the case of Spain. An announcement of a future fiscal law change gives the opportunity to buyers to advance or delay purchases to maximize fiscal benefits. In particular, we study announcements and their posterior effects about the mortgage tax laws in 1998, 2010, 2011, and 2013 plus the VAT law in 2012. The paper is based on contextually rich data from 2004 through 2015 for Spain, provided by a real estate agent with a strong presence across the Spanish territory. We use two dependent variables to best capture the changes: time on market of a dwelling and the price discount of the dwelling. Simultaneity bias is avoided by considering that the degree of overpricing and atypicality affects time on market but not the selling price. The identification strategy is improved by considering the type of properties most affected by the changes versus the rest of properties, using a difference-in-difference estimation. We consider two tax policy announcements: income tax credit on dwelling purchases and VAT rate change on the purchases of new dwellings. In the case of the income tax credit, this fiscal policy affects only primary accommodations. In the case of the VAT tax rate, only new houses are affected. We show that credible fiscal policy announcements distort the housing market by temporarily decreasing dwellings’ time on market and their price discounts, to immediately and long-lastingly increase them just after the tax policy expires. There is a negative causal effect of tax policy announcements on the housing market.     

分行业能源差别定价促进节能模型研究

促进节能减排是当前建设环境友好型社会以及促进经济又快又好发展的重要措施。如何完成"十一五"规划提出的节能减排的两个约束性指标是亟待解决的重大课题。笔者根据能源价格由市场调节与政府调控相结合形成的原则,根据不同行业节能情况的差异性,对不同行业能源消费价格进行差别定价,建立了分行业能源差别定价促进节能模型,以期对政府制定节能减排政策具有一定的借鉴意义。     

考虑供给与需求波动性的安全库存定量研究

本文以商业企业和MTS模式下生产企业的安全库存为研究对象,将供给与需求的变动程度作为两个动态指标研究四种不同战略与运营环境下的安全库存模型,并进一步分析了降低安全库存所需的管理杠杆.     

股票价格均值回归理论研究综述

随机漫步理论认为股票的价格是不能预测的,许多实证检验的结果也支持了这一结论。但是,近年来均值回归理论对随机漫步理论提出了挑战。从长期来看,股票价格呈均值回归是必然的;均值回归具有不对称性;政府行为对股票的均值回归具有一定的影响。     

基于TOPSIS法的辽宁省经济水平评价

考虑到经济水平评价问题的重要性,以辽宁省14个市为研究对象,选取了人均生产总值、职工平均工资等七个反映经济水平的指标,通过熵值法确定各个指标的权重,并利用TOPSIS法客观合理地对辽宁省的14个城市2009年的经济水平进行了综合评价,并给出了排名。     

复合支护技术在深水平破碎岩层中的应用

深部破碎巷道具有非线性大变形特征,单一的支护方式难以控制。矿井在进入深部开采后,软岩巷道围岩出现显著变形,围岩破碎严重,对巷道围岩稳定性的控制变得极其困难。针对平煤四矿三水平上部变电所岩性较为破碎的特点,通过理论分析和对以往成功经验的借签,提出了采用锚网喷+锚索+U型钢支架+喷浆的支护技术,加强了深部破碎岩巷的支护,较好地解决了围岩松软破碎、高变形巷道的支护难题,为其它类似条件下巷道围岩控制提供了参考。     

What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent–price ratio

We apply the dynamic Gordon growth model to the housing market in 23 US metropolitan areas, the four Census regions, and the nation from 1975 to 2007. The model allows the rent–price ratio at each date to be split into the expected present discounted values of rent growth, real interest rates, and a housing premium over real rates. We show that housing premia are variable and forecastable and account for a significant fraction of rent–price ratio volatility at the national and local levels, and that covariances among the three components damp fluctuations in rent–price ratios. Thus, explanations of house-price dynamics that focus only on interest rate movements and ignore these covariances can be misleading. These results are similar to those found for stocks and bonds.