The house price determination process: Rational expectations with a spatial context

Applying the rational expectations hypothesis, this essay models the current value of a house as the conditional expectation of the discounted stream of housing services accruing to the owner of the house. The value of housing services is determined by neighborhood effects as well as the physical attributes of the property itself. In the existing hedonic literature, future transactions have not been utilized to describe neighborhood effects. The rational expectations asset pricing model in this study accounts for expected future neighborhood effects as well as observed current neighborhood effects. The reduced form of the rational expectations model is a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model with two spatial lags. After employing the generalized method of moments (GMM) in estimating the spatial asset pricing model, I find that both expected future transactions and prior transactions in the neighborhood are significant. The inclusion of expected future transaction prices in the neighborhood takes into account the influence of expected changes in the community and factors these potential changes into the current house price. This is consistent with forward-looking households. The forward-looking model generates superior out-of-sample prediction performance relative to both the conventional hedonic model without considering neighborhood effects or the standard spatial hedonic model including only past transactions.     

工程招标暂定价的造价管理

在工程招标时,通常设定暂定价,加强招标暂定价的管理,有利于工程总投资的造价控制。本文简单介绍了招标暂定价的特点和分类,提出了从建设项目招标、施工、竣工结算三个阶段加强暂定价造价管理的具体措施。     

住房流动性对房价指数的影响及其定量分析

目前中国城市住房市场不稳定程度较高,这不仅体现为房价的迅速变化,而且反映在交易量的大幅波动上,后者就是住房流动性的变化。有学者研究指出,以实际交易价格为基础的房价指数可能会低估住房市场的波动程度。为了更准确地把握住房市场的运行状态,本文借鉴美国MIT的相关技术,分析了住房流动性（交易活跃程度）对房价指数的影响,并尝试将流动性信息引入房价指数当中。我们发现,住房流动性对于房价指数有较大影响,且符合人们对于市场走势的直观判断,能够较好地反映市场转折点。     

微观层面的对外直接投资与对外贸易关系研究

对外直接投资与对外贸易存在替代、互补或者互动的关系;从不同角度,会观察到对外直接投资与对外贸易不同的关系。     

控股股东股权质押、市场化水平与公司风险承担

聚焦微观企业,以我国A股上市公司为样本,研究了控股东股权质押对上市公司风险承担的影响。研究发现：（1）控股股东股权质押正向影响上市公司的风险承担水平,且这种影响在控股股东持股比例较低和所处地区市场化程度较高的公司中更为显著。（2）控股股东股权质押对上市公司风险担的正向影响只有在股权质押率较高和公司存在融资约束时才会发挥作用。（3）上市公司风险承担的提高可以促进公司价值的提升,有助于公司的长远发展。     

浅谈固定总价合同对承包商的利弊

本文集中就固定总价合同对承包商的利与弊进行了有效的分析与研究,对固定总价合同中的项目承包方的风险与风险控制提出了良好的解决策略,以期对承包商的利益与稳定发展提供良好的意见指导与帮助。     

供应突变下的供应链协调仿真研究

研究供应链的供应突然大幅度变动时,供应链应该如何应对该突发事件,使供应链重新达到协调。鉴于此,首先对供应链突发事件、供应链协调等相关概念进行了陈述。指出突发事件打破了供应链的原有协调,并建立了系统动力学模型。通过模型的数据仿真分析得出面对供应链的供应大幅度变动的突发事件时供应链应该采取何种措施。其中,主要研究的是在供应链收益一定的情况下供应商与生产商之间如何通过销售价格来调整他们之间的收益分配比例,使得供应链重新达到协调。     

Exact confidence sets and goodness-of-fit methods for stable distributions

Usual inference methods for stable distributions are typically based on limit distributions. But asymptotic approximations can easily be unreliable in such cases, for standard regularity conditions may not apply or may hold only weakly. This paper proposes finite-sample tests and confidence sets for tail thickness and asymmetry parameters (α$\alpha$ and β$\beta$) of stable distributions. The confidence sets are built by inverting exact goodness-of-fit tests for hypotheses which assign specific values to these parameters. We propose extensions of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Shapiro–Wilk and Filliben criteria, as well as the quantile-based statistics proposed by McCulloch (1986) in order to better capture tail behavior. The suggested criteria compare empirical goodness-of-fit or quantile-based measures with their hypothesized values. Since the distributions involved are quite complex and non-standard, the relevant hypothetical measures are approximated by simulation, and p$p$-values are obtained using Monte Carlo (MC) test techniques. The properties of the proposed procedures are investigated by simulation. In contrast with conventional wisdom, we find reliable results with sample sizes as small as 25. The proposed methodology is applied to daily electricity price data in the US over the period 2001–2006. The results show clearly that heavy kurtosis and asymmetry are prevalent in these series.     

基于性能化的工业建筑抗震设计分析

本文提出来在重要的不规则的工业结构设计过程中采用性能化抗震设计的方法及实现。主要阐述了结构抗震性能目标的确定方法,文章结合设计实例分析建筑结构的是否满足选定的抗震性能设计,旨在为其他建筑的抗震设计提供参考和借鉴作用。