新贸易保护主义对广东沿海经济带外贸出口的影响及其应对

后危机时代,全球范围内新贸易保护主义抬头且呈现加速发展的趋势。广东省在这场新贸易保护主义中面临着极大的挑战,广东沿海经济带的对外贸易作为广东省外贸的主体,不可避免地遭受新贸易保护主义的严重冲击。文章分析了国际＂两反两保＂措施、知识产权争端、技术性贸易壁垒、绿色贸易壁垒和劳工标准壁垒等新贸易保护主义形式对广东沿海经济带的影响,提出广东沿海经济带外贸出口应对新贸易保护主义的若干策略：适度限制出口和扩大进口;政府协同企业应对国外的＂两反两保＂措施;提升核心竞争力跨越知识产权贸易壁垒;依靠自主创新突破技术性贸易壁垒;发展环保低碳产业应对绿色贸易壁垒和加强社会责任意识化解劳工标准壁垒等。     

Rethinking Trade and Development: A Developmentalist Perspective

Abstract

In one of the longest lasting debates in economics, mainstream economists still basically rest their position regarding trade and development policies on the static principle of comparative advantage, while relying on fancier econometric techniques to find empirical support. This paper draws attention to dynamic considerations, first emphasizing Smith's observation that there was more scope for division of labor in manufactures than in primary production. Prebisch noted that primary products generally have lower income elasticity of demand than manufactures. In a global context where some countries undertook industrial development ahead of others, these would generate the trade patterns that Ricardo predicted. Investment would flow from the industrial center to the periphery to augment primary production as Mill anticipated. Through the dominance of backwash over spread effects, international inequalities would widen à la Mrydal. International dualism, especially in a technological sense, would be aggravated à la Singer. To counter such uneven development, developmentalists such as Hamilton, List, Prebisch, Myrdal, and Singer advocated technological acquisitions and industrial development on the part of the less-developed countries or regions. Contrary to mainstream portrayal they did not simply advocate protectionism. Instead, their policy suggestions were nuanced and sophisticated, and included both non-trade and trade instruments, means of building technological capabilities, and (for those writing after World War II) considerations of how to sensibly direct and regulate the activities of multinational corporations. These policy ideas appear to neatly link up with those drawn from case studies of East Asian development undertaken by some researchers that are outside of the economics mainstream.     

地方保护、区域市场分割与产业集聚——基于制造业数据的实证研究

利用Ellison和Glaeser的行业区域集聚指数,测算了我国制造业20个行业1999~2006年(2004年除外)的集聚程度及发展趋势,发现这20个行业的集聚程度总体上呈现上升趋势,技术密集型行业的集聚程度最高,且集中速度较快。同时,重点考察了地方保护、区域市场分割对产业集聚的影响,实证结果显示,地方保护、市场分割阻碍了市场的空间集中,市场分割的阻碍作用非常显著。另外,行业出口比重、行业外部性及劳动生产率均不同程度地影响着20个行业的集聚趋势。     

新贸易保护主义对我国外贸的影响及应对策略

新贸易保护主义是新形势下出现的以管理贸易理论为指导的贸易保护主义。与传统贸保护主义不同,新贸易保护主义极大影响了各国外贸的发展,受到世界的普遍关注。本文主要分析了新形势下贸易保护主义出现的原因、表现形式、特点及其对我国外贸的影响,并结合我国国情提出了新贸易保护主义下的我国外贸的策略。     

金融危机下贸易保护对中国出口影响的实证分析——以对美出口机电产品遭遇技术性贸易壁垒为例

伴随着美国金融危机引起的世界经济衰退,贸易保护主义出现抬头趋势。文章以机电产品对美出口遭遇技术性贸易壁垒为例,通过协整分析、脉冲响应、方差分解等方法对金融危机下贸易保护对我国出口的短期冲击进行实证研究。结果表明,金融危机下经济的不景气反而促进了中国的出口,但有可能恶化出口商品结构,而贸易保护和总需求下降是严重抑制中国出口的主要因素,引入金融危机冲击这一虚拟变量后,贸易保护的影响加剧。因此,扩大国内外需求和冲破贸易壁垒限制是解决出口下行的根本途径。     

新阶段中国开放型经济发展困局及破题之策

近年来,针对中国开放型经济发展呈现的“乏力”现象,学界的代表性观点认为是结构调整和动力转换加快、发展的质量和效益提高的表现。实际上,开放型经济发展的速度和质量并不矛盾,而且更高层次的开放型经济发展更能提升竞争力,从而有利于加快经济发展速度。中国开放型经济发展增速下降恰恰说明转型升级的速度未能适应“倒逼压力”下的新需求,竞争新优势的培育还未能充分弥补传统优势的丧失。面对国际和国内环境深刻变化的多重倒逼因素,中国开放型经济发展亟待破除转型升级的障碍因素,加快转型发展和竞争新优势培育。     

美国的新贸易保护主义与我国必须应对的挑战

美国对中国的巨额贸易逆差主要是美国自身的产业结构问题造成的,并且美国实行限制对中国高技术转让的贸易政策,自己封闭了实现贸易平衡的渠道。在WTO机制下,美国一方面坐享贸易自由化的成果,另一方面又不愿其他国家也分得一杯羹;旨在推行世界贸易自由化的世贸组织,也对各国的贸易争端持务实的态度,承认贸易保护在双边和多边谈判中的重要作用,这是美国的新贸易保护主义盛行的本质原因。美国等西方国家的贸易保护政策严重损害了我国的贸易利益,我们必须妥善应对。     

Wildland Fire and Organic Discourse: Negotiating Place and Leisure Identity in a Changing Wildland Urban Interface

A lack of research on the conceptual intersection of leisure, place and wildland fire and its role in identity prompted this exploratory study. The purpose of this research was to gather evidence regarding how people negotiate identities under the threat of wildland fire. Qualitative interviews with 16 homeowners and recreationists who value leisure activities in undeveloped places in Colorado's Arapaho-Roosevelt National Forest were conducted. Results show that wildland fire plays a varied role in the identities of many of the research participants. Three dominant discourses of nature (i.e., humanist, protectionist and organic) helped explain these identity-related reactions to wildland fire. An understanding of the multidimensional aspects of place and leisure identity highlighted in this research could help land managers particularly related to the organic discourse.     

Book Reviews

Today both Denmark and Sweden are successful fashion exporters due to the re-export of clothing designed in Scandinavia and produced in low-wage countries, while domestic clothing manufacturing has become almost non-existent over the past 20 years. This article compares the strategies of Danish and Swedish trade associations in clothing manufacturing and discusses whether or not the associations encouraged the abandonment of local manufacturing and adoption of global value chains. The analysis is carried out on the basis of interest group theory as developed by Mancur Olson and others, and the findings confirm that interest group influence can entail long-term negative effects, but also that variations in institutional settings are decisive.     

透视后危机背景下的中美贸易摩擦

在后危机时代的贸易摩擦中,中美贸易摩擦有愈演愈烈之势,美国视中国为贸易保护措施的最大目标,中国对美贸易形势日益严峻。中美贸易摩擦升温是由美国内在政治、经济结构调整需求所决定的。