Bank fragility, “money under the mattress”, and long-run growth: US evidence from the “perfect” Panic of 1893

This paper examines how the US financial crisis of 1893 affected state output growth between 1900 and 1930. The results indicate that a 1% increase in bank instability reduced output growth by 2–5%. A comparison of Nebraska, which had one of the highest bank failure rates, with West Virginia, which did not experience a single bank failure, reveals that disintermediation affected growth through a portfolio change among savers: people simply stopped trusting banks. Time series evidence from newspapers indicates that articles containing the words “money hidden” significantly increase after banking crises, then slowly die out.     

关于上海同业拆借利率定价影响因素及其基准性建设

Shibor作为推进利率市场化的重要基础条件和机制建设内容，将在深化改革过程中发挥重要作用。文章概括了Shibor的总体市场表现，用计量分析的方法筛选确定对3个月Shibor定价有显著影响的相关利率，从市场运行的角度探讨这些金融产品利率对3个月Shibor定价的影响和传导途径，并就进一步加强Shibor基准性建设提出相关政策建议。     

Protein and the demand for hard wheats*

Wheat protein is one of the most important specifications used in domestic and import purchase contracts and is used partly as a proxy for functional quality. The purpose of this article is to analyse the demand for wheat delineated by protein class. A choice‐based econometric model is specified and estimated using a novel dataset of pooled wheat shipments to individual importing countries. Buyers are importing countries that make purchase decisions among different protein levels. The model frames the choice in terms of attributes of the choice and of the importing countries. Results indicate that there have been shifts over time, and purchase probabilities are highly price elastic and vary across importing regions. Functional characteristics including wet gluten content and extraction rates have significant impacts on purchase probabilities. These results have implications for breeders as it clearly illustrates the role of protein and functional characteristics on demand. The results also have implications for analysts modelling wheat trade in that there are many factors impacting market segments that would not be captured in conventional demand specifications.     

血浆血栓调节蛋白检测在乳腺癌治疗与转移中的临床应用价值

为研究乳腺癌患者外周血TM 的表达水平以及与预后的关系，采用 ESISA 法测定47例乳腺癌患者、21例乳腺良性病患者和25例健康志愿者血浆 TM 水平，并评价其对乳腺癌诊断和转移的价值。结果为：乳腺癌组的TM 水平明显高于对照组、良性组（ P ＜0．01）。良性组的 TM 水平与对照组无明显差异（ P＞0．05），乳腺癌血浆 TM 水平随临床分期逐渐升高（与对照、良性、I ＋II 组比较，均P＜0．01）；术后乳腺癌组血浆TM 水平较术前有所下降，但无统计学意义（P ＞0．05）；化疗后乳腺癌组血浆TM水平较术前、术后均显著升高（P＜0．05）；术前TM升高的阳性率为66．0％，在 TM 水平升高组中，乳腺癌转移率为71．0％，在 TM 水平下降组中，乳腺癌转移率为37．5％（与升高组比较 P ＜0．01）。 TM 与乳腺癌的发展密切相关，是乳腺癌转移的重要因子，其高水平表达提示患者转移、预后差，反之提示患者近期预后良好。     

Cost effectiveness of escitalopram versus SNRIs in second-step treatment of major depressive disorder in Sweden

Abstract

Objectives:

Escitalopram is the S-enantiomer of citalopram and is the most discriminating of the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI). The aim of the current analysis was to assess the cost effectiveness of escitalopram versus the serotonin norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors (SNRI) duloxetine and generic venlafaxine as second-step treatment of major depressive disorder.

Methods:

The analysis was based on a decision analytic model. Effectiveness outcomes were quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and remission rates; cost outcomes were direct medical costs, including impact of treating adverse events, and indirect costs associated with lost productivity. The analysis was performed from the societal perspective in Sweden over a 6-month timeframe.

Results:

Estimated remission rates showed an incremental effectiveness in favour of escitalopram of 16.4 percentage points compared with both SNRI comparators. The escitalopram strategy was associated with a 0.025 increase in QALYs. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the model is robust and that escitalopram remains a cost-effective option when considering future predicted price reductions of generic venlafaxine.

Limitations:

The main limitation in this study was the lack of data available for second-step treatment. The remission rates, which are a key input to the model, were obtained from a relatively small sample of patients on second-step treatment and there are no published relapse rates for second-step treatment. The model also assumed that there was no difference in the adverse event (AE) rates between treatments after the first 8 weeks.

Conclusions:

This cost-effectiveness analysis indicates that, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £30,000, escitalopram is the most cost-effective second-step treatment option for MDD in Sweden in over 85% cases compared with both venlafaxine and with duloxetine. Benefits for escitalopram included both increased effectiveness and reduced overall costs. The major contributing costs were those associated with productivity loss.

The model was shown to have internal validity and robustness through the use of stochastic simulations and sensitivity analyses, which were conducted around the key efficacy parameters.     

Francis Ysidro Edgeworth's Catalan grandfather

Based on a 1831 note by Lord Holland, Sir John Hicks incorrectly concluded in a 1984 article that the maternal grandfather of Francis Ysidro Edgeworth, General Antonio Eroles, ‘a political refugee from Catalonia’ according to Keynes (), was a close relative of the Baron of Eroles. In this article, new information from Spanish and Irish sources about Antonio Eroles and his family is presented. It includes his birth place and day and it details his activities during the period 1823?–?34. As a consequence of this information, Lord Holland and Sir John Hicks' speculations are refuted.     

Economic simulation of canagliflozin and sitagliptin treatment outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus with inadequate glycemic control

Abstract

Objectives:

This study examines the association between changes in diabetes-related quality measures (QMs) (HbA1c, systolic and diastolic blood pressure [BP], low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], and body weight) and healthcare costs in Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients. It also performs an economic simulation that evaluates the cost implications of the changes in QMs and of the incidence rates (IRs) of adverse events (AEs) associated with canagliflozin (CANA) and sitagliptin (SITA) treatments in a real-world setting.

Methods:

Health-insurance claims and electronic medical records from the Reliant Medical Group database (2007–2011) were used to identify adult patients with T2DM receiving metformin and sulfonylurea who did not achieve adequate glycemic control. The association between the changes in QMs and healthcare costs was evaluated using multivariate regression and non-parametric bootstrap methods. AE-related costs were taken from the literature. The cost impact of CANA and SITA outcomes was evaluated using the aforementioned costs and the changes in QMs and the IRs of AEs observed in a recent phase 3 trial comparing CANA and SITA as third oral agent (DIA3015).

Results:

Eight hundred and fifty-six T2DM patients were identified (mean age?=?65.8; female 45.4%). The regression analysis found that increases of 1 percentage point in HbA1C and 1% in systolic and diastolic BP, LDL-C, or weight were associated with a per patient per year (PPPY) cost increase of $4476 (p?=?0.028) and $566 (p?=?0.006), a decrease of $362 (p?=?0.070) and $7 (p?=?0.817), and an increase of $241 (p?=?0.481), respectively. The economic simulation showed that changes in QMs and IRs of AEs equivalent to those reported in DIA3015 would be associated with a reduction in PPPY healthcare costs of $6061 (p?=?0.036) for CANA and $2190 (p?=?0.098) for SITA.

Conclusions:

This study suggests that integrated approaches that manage to control a combination of quality measures are most successful at reducing downstream healthcare costs.     

Economic burden in patients with ALK + non-small cell lung cancer,with or without brain metastases,receiving second-line anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) inhibitors

Abstract

Aims: To describe the real-world economic burden of patients with anaplastic lymphoma kinase-positive (ALK+) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with post-crizotinib, second-line ALK inhibitor therapy.

Materials and methods: Retrospective analysis using data from US Optum: Clinformatics Data Mart administrative claims database. Adult patients with ALK?+?NSCLC treated with ceritinib or alectinib as second-line ALK inhibitors between 1 January 2011 and 30 September 2017 were included. Healthcare costs and resource utilization for up to 1?year of therapy were calculated on a per-patient-per-month (PPPM) basis and stratified by presence or absence of brain metastases (BM). Multivariate regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with costs. Top ten cost drivers of non-inpatient procedure costs were recorded.

Results: One hundred and twelve patients received second-line ALK inhibitors. Total mean PPPM healthcare costs were $23,984 for all patients receiving up to 1?year of post-crizotinib, second-line ALK inhibitor therapy. Total mean PPPM costs for patients with BM on or prior to post-crizotinib, second-line ALK inhibitor therapy were 1.37-times as high as those for patients without BM (p?=?0.0406). Mean PPPM outpatient visits and inpatient hospitalization stays were higher for patients with BM versus no BM. The main cost drivers for non-inpatient procedures were radiation therapy, medications, and diagnostic radiology.

Limitations: Analyses did not include newer ALK-directed therapies. BM development after the index date (defined as the date of the first claim for a second-line ALK inhibitor) may have been misclassified as non-BM. Findings may not be generalizable to patients with no health insurance coverage.

Conclusions: Treatment of patients with ALK?+?NSCLC with ceritinib or alectinib as post-crizotinib, second-line ALK inhibitor therapy represents a high economic burden. Healthcare costs and resource utilization were significantly higher for patients with ALK?+?NSCLC with BM versus no BM.     

The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the expansion of China's higher education in overseas markets along the route

Due to the differences in economic and social conditions among the Belt‐and‐Road (B&R) countries, resources exchange might bring significant effect on companies and organizations in these countries. In recent years, vigorously developing university education and attracting more outstanding international students have become important means for “B&R” countries to expand education market and enhance international influence. However, there is limited research discussing the impact of “B&R” on the internationalization of higher education. Taking the sponsoring country (China) of the “B&R” strategy as an example, this article explores the impact of this strategy on Chinese universities' expansion in the education market, and further analyzes the important relevant factors from the perspectives of international competitiveness. The findings show that the B&R Initiative has a significant impact on the expansion of Chinese universities in overseas markets along the route. Furthermore, we have found “push” factors related to China's macro and micro environments, and “pull” factors associated with countries along the B&R route.