普惠金融的反贫困效应研究——基于西部地区的面板数据分析

本文基于2005~2015 年西部12 省市（区）数据,测度普惠金融发展水平、贫困程度,运用面板数据实证检验普惠金融的反贫困效应,研究表明：（1）西部地区普惠金融发展水平整体较低,发展速度缓慢,省际差异明显;（2）西部地区的扶贫开发取得了明显效果,贫困程度较轻;（3）从普惠金融的各个维度看：金融服务覆盖率、金融服务可得性以及金融资源的实际使用效率对贫困均有明显的减缓作用;（4）普惠金融对西部地区反贫困效应整体显著,但分省效果并不明显。最后,就发展普惠金融以减缓西部地区的贫困现状提出相关的政策建议。     

“一带一路”沿线国家基础设施投资社会风险评价研究

“一带一路”沿线国家在社会治安、人文环境、医疗卫生、劳动用工等社会环境方面存在着较大差异,使得我国对外基础设施投资面临巨大的社会风险。为评价和分析“一带一路”沿线国家基础设施投资的社会风险,本文采用独立性权重法、变异系数法和CRITIC权重法对指标进行客观赋权,使用灰色关联分析法对49个“一带一路”沿线国家进行社会风险评价,并基于风险相似度对评价结果进行分析。研究分析发现,本文选取的49个样本国家社会风险等级可以分为五大类及两个孤立点,其中每一类国家的社会风险存在相同的风险特征。基于本文研究,希望为我国对“一带一路”沿线国家进行基础设施投资决策和社会风险管理提供参考。     

互联网发展与区域经济收敛——基于空间计量的分析

互联网具有“时空压缩”特质和新经济增长点“催化剂”效应,逐渐成为欠发达地区实现跨越式发展的驱动力量。本文以中国30个省(区、市)2006~2019年的面板数据为样本构建互联网发展指标体系,基于空间条件收敛模型,分析互联网发展对区域经济收敛的影响。结果表明:互联网发展对中国区域经济收敛具有促进作用,且呈现直接和溢出的双重促进效应;异质性研究发现互联网发展对东、西部区域经济收敛具有促进作用,但对中部地区影响不显著。本文研究一定程度上解释了互联网发展对区域差距稳态趋同的作用,对实现我国区域协调发展具有重要的现实意义。     

Active-set sequential quadratic programming method with compact neighbourhood algorithm for the multi-polygon mass production cutting-stock problem with rotatable polygons

The cutting-stock problem, which considers how to arrange the component profiles on the material without overlaps, can increase the utility rate of the sheet stock, and is thus a standard constrained optimisation problem. In some applications the components should be placed with specific orientations, but in others the components may be placed with any orientation. This study presents an overlap index and it is much more suitable for the active-set SQP method which can reduce the time spend for constraint consideration. Using this method, various object orientations can be considered easily and the number of object on the sheet stock can be improved by up to eight percent.     

中国入境旅游业对危机事件响应的区域差异研究

危机事件给入境旅游业带来负面影响,准确分析各种危机事件对我国不同区域的影响差异具有现实意义。通过时间序列法和变异系数进行分析,结果表明,在区域灾害高发期或者灾害发生年,特定时段入境旅游流占区域全年比例往往低于同期全国相应水平,对生命安全造成威胁、引起交通中断的灾害对区域入境旅游流影响较严重。我国东部地区入境旅游业对危机事件反应较为缓和,抗御危机事件能力较强且恢复速度快;西北部干旱地区以及西藏、海南入境旅游业对危机事件反应较为敏感,抗御危机事件能力较弱且恢复速度慢。北京、上海入境旅游业一直走在全国前列,但是易受危机事件干扰。政治与疾病事件对入境旅游业与国内旅游业均造成严重打击,同时多种危机事件叠加也会对入境旅游业造成较大影响,与国内旅游业相比入境旅游业对危机事件反应更为敏感。     

Cultural distance in international business and management: from mean-based to variance-based measures

Extant practice in international management is to measure cultural distance as a nation-to-nation comparison of country means on cultural values, thereby ignoring the cultural variation that exists within countries. We argue that these traditional mean-based measures of cultural distance should take within-country cultural variation into account. Therefore, we propose the use of variance-based measures of cultural distance. To illustrate our argument, we examine total US foreign affiliate sales in more than 40 host countries over the 1983–2008 period, complemented with data from the World Values Survey. We analyze the effects of three cultural distance measures: the Kogut and Singh (1988 Kogut, B., and Singh, H. (1988), ‘The Effect of National Culture on the Choice of Entry Mode,’ Journal of International Business Studies, 19, 411–432.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) mean-based index of cultural distance, the Kogut and Singh (1988 Kogut, B., and Singh, H. (1988), ‘The Effect of National Culture on the Choice of Entry Mode,’ Journal of International Business Studies, 19, 411–432.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) index conditioned by host-country cultural variation and a variance-based measure that takes into account both home- and host-country cultural variation. Our findings indicate that, when within-country cultural variation is taken into account, the explanatory power of the Kogut and Singh (1988 Kogut, B., and Singh, H. (1988), ‘The Effect of National Culture on the Choice of Entry Mode,’ Journal of International Business Studies, 19, 411–432.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) index is substantially decreased. In addition, our variance-based measure of cultural distance outperforms the Kogut and Singh (1988 Kogut, B., and Singh, H. (1988), ‘The Effect of National Culture on the Choice of Entry Mode,’ Journal of International Business Studies, 19, 411–432.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) measure in the explanation of foreign US sales. We therefore suggest to move from mean-based to variance-based measures of cultural distance, thereby taking the cultural variation within countries into account.     

Does the stock market contain information about economic growth? Time-varying out of sample causality tests

We present a new approach to conduct time-varying out of sample causality tests and apply our method to examine the information content of the stock market for economic growth in the US context. We show that equity valuations convey little information in the period after the 1960s. Particularly, there is no evidence to suggest that the recent bull market in equities is indicative of higher future economic growth. Hence, our results are against the argument that the stock market should be included as a leading indicator in economic policymaking.     

生态语言学视野中湘南瑶语的保存和变异——以榴星瑶语为例

湖南永州东安榴星村有汉瑶两个民族,现代榴星村里有一种瑶语方言,两种汉语方言。这三种方言共存于一个语言生态系统里。汉语方言处于优势地位,榴星瑶语的演变是语言的生态变异,瑶语在竞争中仍保持了自己的特色但又趋于濒危。     

Markowitz's证券组合投资决策模型的有效集解法

在分析Markowitz's证券组合投资模型最优解方法的基础上,给出了求解Markowitz's证券组合投资模型的有效集法。用该方法对一个具体实例的允许卖空情形与不允许卖空情形分别进行计算求解。实例的数值计算结果,显示该方法是可行有效的。     

浅谈建筑工程施工阶段工程变更签证管理

为了加强对建筑工程造价的有效控制,尽量减少工程施工阶段工程变更签证,保证工程结算价不超过即定的投资计划额,同时加快工程结算进度。针对以往建筑工程中工程变更的管理经验和体会,提出了一些看法和措施。