不可再生资源的最优储备与开发战略控制模型

宏观经济系统中，不可再生资源储备与开发的战略决策，是该系统中物流动态发展的基础，更是系统经济可持续发展，并在未来经济竞争中维持资源优势的决定性要不比，在进行了五种战略思考的基础上，构建了四个不可再生资源的最优储备与开发的战略控制模型。     

Efficient rank tests for semiparametric competing risk models

We consider a semiparametric competing risk model given by k independent survival times. The paper offers an asymptotic treatment of tests for the semiparametric null hypothesis of equality of the underlying risks. It turns out that modified rank tests are asymptotically efficient for certain semiparametric submodels, where the baseline hazard is a nuisance parameter. In addition, the asymptotic relative efficiency of the present tests is derived. A comparison of asymptotic power functions can then be used to classify various tests proposed earlier in the literature. For instance a chi-square type test is efficient for proportional hazards. Data driven tests of likelihood ratio type are proposed for cones of alternatives. We will consider certain stochastically increasing alternatives as a special example. The paper shows how the concept of local asymptotic normality of Le Cam works for hazard oriented models.     

The association between two random elements: A complete characterization and odds ratio models

For random elements X and Y (e.g. vectors) a complete characterization of their association is given in terms of an odds ratio function. The main result establishes for any odds ratio function and any pre-specified marginals the unique existence of a corresponding joint distribution (the joint density is obtained as a limit of an iterative procedure of marginal fittings). Restricting only the odds ratio function but not the marginals leads to semi-parmetric association models for which statistical inference is available for samples drawn conditionally on either X or Y. Log-bilinear association models for random vectors X and Y are introduced which generalize standard (regression) models by removing restrictions on the marginals. In particular, the logistic regression model is recognized as a log-bilinear association model. And the joint distribution of X and Y is shown to be multivariate normal if and only if both marginals are normal and the association is log-bilinear.Acknowledgements The author thanks both referees for their helpful comments which improved the first draft of the paper.     

论我国住房商品化与住房消费

传统经济学理论认为,当一种商品的供给增加时,其价格呈下降趋势。然而我国当前的住房消费市场却恰恰相反：一方面,市场上出现了大量的商品房积压或闲置,而另一方面住房价格却依然居高不下。本文认为,出现这一问题的原因是供给没有有效地创造出自己的需求,而解决这一问题的方法是通过降低利率、成本以及减少税收等手段增加居民的相对收入并达到有效刺激市场需求的目的。     

中东欧转轨国家外资持股比例与银行竞争力、金融安全关系的实证考察

近年来我国银行业引进境外战略投资者的行为引发了理论界关于外资持股比例对中资银行竞争力提升与国家金融安全影响的争论。本文选取与我国具有相似的银行业改革历程、但改革先于我国的中东欧转轨国家为样本,实证考察这些国家外资持股比例与银行竞争力提升和金融安全之间的关系。得出的基本结论是:外资持股比例与银行竞争力的提升具有一定的联系,但并不十分紧密;从金融与经济关系的视角考察外资持股比例与金融安全的关系,并不能得出外资持股比例越高的银行对金融安全的威胁性越大的结论。     

提高银行资本充足率：减税还是注资？

激励相容银行监管的目的是，一方面实现宏观经济稳定，保证银行业的安全稳健运行，另一方面使银行业实现较好的盈利性。政府注资国有银行是为了充实银行资本金，提高银行业的经营稳健性。但注资具有低激励相容度，这在宏、微观两方面表现出来。微观方面可以通过净资产收益率与资本充足率的关系考察注资的激励相容程度，宏观方面则可以从不良贷款货币化效应来考察。与此同时，税收通过银行内源资本影响银行资本充足率，而目前我国银行业税负偏重。解决这个悖论的有效方法是要逐步降低银行业的税负，加大银行税返还，提高其盈利能力，通过自身的积累，增强内源补充资本能力，切实提高资本充足率。     

The Distributional Properties of the Debt to Equity Ratio: Some Implications for Empirical Research

The purpose here is to assess empirically the quasi-supply side model of the firm developed in the paper by Ashton et al. (2004 ) by testing the prediction of the model that the evolution of a firm's debt to equity ratio will be compatible with a non-linear (target adjustment) process whose underlying probability density function possesses no convergent moments. Using a thirty-two-year history of the debt to equity ratio for each of ninety 'mature' United Kingdom firms, a non-parametric estimation procedure shows that the debt to equity ratio evolves in terms of a process which is largely consistent with the predictions of this model. In particular, the evolution of the debt to equity ratio is compatible with a 'long (fat) tailed' density function with no convergent moments. This has the important implication, supported by our empirical analysis, that the linear dynamic models which characterize empirical work in this area will be mis-specified and will return inconsistent and temporally unstable estimates of the target adjustment process as a consequence.     

减轻银行业税负提高银行业资本充足率

随着加入WTO过渡期的结束,我国内资银行业普遍面临着与外资银行间开展激烈竞争,以及资本充足率不足两大问题。本文分析认为,我国银行业税负与国外银行业比较相对偏重,内资银行业税负与外资银行业相比也较重。因此,减轻税负,完善金融税制是提高我国银行业资本充足率、增强自身竞争力的当务之急。     

Corporate giving in Taiwan: agency cost theory vs. value enhancement theory

This article examines the determinants of corporate giving (CG) in Taiwan according to agency cost (AC) and value enhancement (VE) theories. Panel regression test results reveal several new and interesting pieces of evidence. First, VE determinants outweigh AC determinants in explaining CG there. Second, the positive link between the current CG ratio (CGR) and the lagged CGR (CGR(-1)) suggests the consistent nature of CG. Third, after the global financial crisis in 2008, the influence of debt leverage on CGR vanished, but the impact of managerial insiders’ shareholdings on CGR became significant. Last, the influences of VE determinants and CGR(-1) on CGR remain during both pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Moreover, after the crisis, CG was still motivated to create current value for shareholders, and was apparently used as a business strategy to signal companies’ financial or managerial stability.     

高校教师对延迟退休年龄意愿的实证研究——基于成都市高校教师的调查

通过PPS抽样从成都市随机抽取了九所高校,并就其专任教师对延迟退休年龄的意愿进行了问卷调查,得到影响成都市高校教师退休意愿影响因素的数据,建立了二维选择logistic回归模型。是否延迟退休年龄的主要影响因素为性别、收入、和身体健康状况。对赞成延迟退休教师的意愿退休年龄进行了分布检验,发现其服从正态分布,并预测出赞成延迟退休的男教师意愿退休年龄为64-65岁,女教师的意愿退休年龄为61-62岁。