Volatility‐Spillover Effects in European Bond Markets

Volatility spillover from the US and aggregate European bond markets into individual European bond markets using a GARCH volatility‐spillover model is analysed. Strong statistical evidence of volatility spillover from the US and aggregate European bond markets is found. For EMU countries, the US volatility‐spillover effects are rather weak (in economic terms) whereas the European volatility‐spillover effects are strong. The bond markets of EMU countries have become much more integrated after the introduction of the euro, and in recent years they have become close to being perfectly integrated. The main driver of the integration appears to be convergence in interest rates.     

全球不均衡货币、金融体系下的危机与对策

"布雷顿森林体系"崩溃后,形成的以美元为主的全球不均衡货币、金融体系,是国际流动性膨胀的根本原因,也是金融系统性风险的重要因素。基于这个背景,本文着重阐述在这个体系下,国际短期资本流动、汇率问题、资产价格波动对金融系统性风险的影响。     

价格、时间敏感性供应链收益混合分配契约模型研究

供应链企业通过何种契约方式进行协同合作，以达到整体目标的最优，是供应链管理的一个重要研究课题。在一个两阶供应链系统中，面对价格和响应时间敏感性市场需求，文章通过引入供应商的激励——响应时间函数和市场关于价格和响应时间的需求函数，构建了供应链的收益混合分配契约模型，最后文章给出了算例分析，验证了该模型的可行性。     

China＇s Inbound Tourist Revenue and Beijing Olympic Games 2008

During the process of economic globalization, China＇s inbound tourism has developed strongly. The present paper deals with one of the core issues of the international tourism industry： inbound tourist revenue. With the aid of conventional theories and the use of empirical tests, our study identifies some decisive factors that have influenced China＇s inbound tourist revenue through an analysis of the global and local conditions at macro and micro levels. The findings were then linked to the Olympic Games, the mega event having impacted international tourism. The findings were also linked to further.discussions and suggestions for the interactions between the Beijing Olympic Games 2008 and China＇s inbound tourism.     

南欧3国社会救助制度反贫困脆弱性：经验分析和比较反思

对南欧的希腊、意大利和西班牙3国的最低收入计划的反贫困经验进行了讨论，从相对贫困率变化的角度看，南欧3国社会救助制度对于贫困减少仍存在脆弱性。同时，分析、对比了中国城市最低生活保障制度对于城市贫困减少的效果，结果表明，就相对贫困而言，贫困减少效果目前还较为有限。最后，就制度设计、政策支持和价值取向等方面提出了思考。     

Value Relevance of Fair Values—Empirical Evidence of the Impact of Market Volatility

This study examines empirically the effects of market volatility on the value relevance of fair values. Using the modified Ohlson model ( 1995 ) and a sample of U.S. financial companies for the period of 2008 to 2013, this study shows that fair values are priced at a significant discount when market volatility is high. Song ( 2013 ) shows analytically that the effectiveness of fair value accounting is negatively affected by market volatility. Findings of the current study suggest that investors understand the effects of market volatility on fair values and price them accordingly. The study extends the research on the determinants of the usefulness of fair values by looking beyond factors associated with the reliability of estimated fair values (Level 2 and Level 3 fair values). This study has practical implications: current accounting standards for fair value measurement acknowledge the limitations of the market as a source of fair values by offering a three‐level fair value hierarchy with provisions for fair values to deviate from market prices. Findings of this study shed light on a previously little studied factor, that is, market volatility, on the usefulness of fair values.     

Capital control and exchange rate volatility

The study offers one conceptual and theoretical framework for evaluating the economic effects of a trading tax on foreign exchange transactions. Taxes and the price stickiness mechanism are taken into account in the model. When prices are flexible, full monetary neutrality can be obtained even in the short-term. Intuitively, taxes on foreign exchange transactions discourage speculation by rising currency trading costs, and, thus, increase the stability of the exchange rate. Finally, the results show that not only the exchange rate but consumption, investment and employment will become less volatile by imposing trading taxes on foreign exchange transactions.     

The Beauty Contest and Short‐Term Trading

Short‐termism need not breed informational price inefficiency even when generating beauty contests. We demonstrate this claim in a two‐period market with persistent liquidity trading and risk‐averse, privately informed, short‐term investors and find that prices reflect average expectations about fundamentals and liquidity trading. Informed investors engage in “retrospective” learning to reassess inferences (about fundamentals) made during the trading game's early stages. This behavior introduces strategic complementarities in the use of information and can yield two stable equilibria that can be ranked in terms of liquidity, volatility, and informational efficiency. We derive implications that explain market anomalies as well as empirical regularities.     

A Tale of Two Anomalies: Higher Returns of Low‐Risk Stocks and Return Seasonality

Prior studies have shown that low beta and low volatility stocks earn higher average returns than high beta and high volatility stocks, contradicting the prediction of the capital asset pricing model and the fundamental relationship between risk and return. In this paper, we demonstrate that this phenomenon is driven by the seasonality of stock returns. We show that the risk‐return tradeoff does hold in the nonsummer months, and that switching to a portfolio of low‐risk stocks in summer outperforms—both in terms of absolute and in risk‐adjusted returns—buy and hold strategies as well as the Sell in May strategy of switching to treasury bills in summer.     

Realizing stock market crashes: stochastic cusp catastrophe model of returns under time-varying volatility

This paper develops a two-step estimation methodology that allows us to apply catastrophe theory to stock market returns with time-varying volatility and to model stock market crashes. In the first step, we utilize high-frequency data to estimate daily realized volatility from returns. Then, we use stochastic cusp catastrophe theory on data normalized by the estimated volatility in the second step to study possible discontinuities in the markets. We support our methodology through simulations in which we discuss the importance of stochastic noise and volatility in a deterministic cusp catastrophe model. The methodology is empirically tested on nearly 27 years of US stock market returns covering several important recessions and crisis periods. While we find that the stock markets showed signs of bifurcation in the first half of the period, catastrophe theory was not able to confirm this behaviour in the second half. Translating the results, we find that the US stock market’s downturns were more likely to be driven by the endogenous market forces during the first half of the studied period, while during the second half of the period, exogenous forces seem to be driving the market’s instability. The results suggest that the proposed methodology provides an important shift in the application of catastrophe theory to stock markets.