基于失效风险的建筑物预防维修成本模型优化

建筑物预防性维修成本的最优控制问题,是企业现代化经营管理的一个重要组成部分,直接影响到企业的经济效益。针对承受重复荷载作用的建筑构件,失效概率随服役时间增加而增大的实际情况,提出了失效风险的概念。采用役龄回退因子描述了维修后失效概率降低的程度,在此基础上推算出满足可靠度约束条件,适用于特定时间段非等间隔检测期序列,计算出单位维修周期内的检测次数。通过对维修成本函数的分析,建立了基于等失效风险状态的维修成本优化模型。为房屋物业管理部门进行建筑物的维修和更换决策提供参考依据。     

The relationship between corporate social responsibility and shareholder value: an empirical test of the risk management hypothesis

Do shareholders gain when managers disperse corporate resources through activities classified as corporate social responsibility (CSR)? Strategy scholars have recently developed a theoretical model that links such activities to shareholder value when a firm suffers a negative event; we test key portions of this theory of the ‘insurance‐like’ property of CSR activity. We posit that such activity leads to positive attributions from stakeholders, who then temper their negative judgments and sanctions toward firms because of this goodwill. We extend the risk management model by theorizing that some types of CSR activities will be more likely to create goodwill and offer insurance‐like protection than other types. We delineate several firm and event specific characteristics that we expect to influence the link between CSR activities and an insurance effect. We then test our model using an event study of 178 negative legal/regulatory actions against firms throughout the 11 years from 1993–2003. We find that participation in institutional CSR activities—those aimed at a firm's secondary stakeholders or society at large—provides an ‘insurance‐like’ benefit, while participation in technical CSRs—those activities targeting a firm's trading partners—yields no such benefits. We conclude by considering the implications of our findings for future theorizing and research into the economic value of CSR engagement. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

International Housing Markets and the U.S. Subprime Crisis

We propose a novel decomposition approach to study the degree of co-movement of international housing markets while distinguishing among different economic drivers. We find that the housing market variability for an average country was mainly driven by the common housing risk premium components during the years leading up to the 2007–08 subprime financial crisis. A decrease in the common housing risk premium was followed by a housing boom and economic expansion in the United States prior to the crisis. Our findings add to the understanding of the role of common risk factors across international housing markets before the crisis.     

Secured Loans and Risky Assets in a Monetary Economy

We study the implication of secured credit with a default option for monetary equilibrium. The intermediary structure has the feature of costly state verification, with the monitoring cost interpreted as the cost of foreclosing assets once a default occurs. Without monitoring costs, uncertainty in asset payoffs does not matter for allocation. The asset price can exhibit a liquidity premium because more assets as collateral raises the borrower's credit limit. When there are monitoring costs, the asset's liquidity premium is strictly positive because pledging more assets reduces the default probability and thus the chance to incur monitoring costs. Under some circumstances, increased risk to dividends of the pledged asset may decrease the marginal borrowing cost to such an extent that bank lending rises, and higher default rates are accompanied by larger aggregate liquidity.     

基于正则藤Copula的行业系统性信用风险传染分析

本文利用国民经济中九大门类行业相关数据,将度量行业信用风险的CCA方法加以改进,并构建正则藤Copula模型,揭示了样本行业间信用风险的非线性相依结构及信用风险传染路径。实证结果显示：各行业信用风险水平不一,但都较好地拟合了实际经济;任意两行业间无条件信用风险大多表现为下尾相关性,但条件信用风险的尾部相关性总体较弱;国民经济行业体系中存在加剧和减缓行业信用风险传染的“风险催化行业”和“条件隔离行业”。最后,提出了有效控制系统性金融风险、防范金融危机的措施建议。     

供应链金融融资模式下中小企业信用风险评估——以汽车行业实证研究为例

本文从中小企业综合实力、核心企业资信状况、融资项的资产状况、供应链关系状况及宏观经济环境五个方面初步构建供应链金融融资模式下中小企业信用风险指标体系,并通过专家打分法、相关性分析及鉴别性分析等方法解决指标体系中存在的非重要性及指标内容相互覆盖的问题,得到具有全面性与可操作性的中小企业信用风险评价指标体系;运用熵值法对中小企业进行信用等级评级,解决以往学者采取评级方法时具有的主观性缺陷;实证研究以汽车行业为例,得出在供应链金融融资模式下60%中小企业信用等级将得到上升的结论,有助于从中小企业信用风险评估角度缓解中小企业融资难问题。     

物流经营人的法律责任及风险防范

物流业作为一新兴产业正在突飞猛进的发展,因此探讨物流经营人的法律责任及风险防范就十分必要。物流经营人作为物流供应链的组织者,其与客户、分包方及与信息技术服务商之间的法律责任除依据法律规定外,合同是划分双方责任的重要依据。而如何防范物流经营人面临的巨大法律责任,笔者从企业管理、合同管理、分包方管理、保险等四个方面进行了探讨,希望能对大家有所启示。     

The Methodology of Risk Perception Research

Risk perception is not strictly a matter ofsensory perception, but of attitudesand expectations. As such, it can be studied byreasonably well developed methods of attitudemeasurement and psychological scaling. Suchmeasurement needs to be applied in a pragmaticfashion, however, since the discussions of fundamentalmeasurement and requirements of scale levelsappropriate for various types of statistical analysis hasfailed in establishing a useful basis for empiricalresearch. The paper also discuses samplingprocedures and the response rateproblem. In risk perception work, there is usually abias involving too many respondents withan above average level ofeducation, but that variable tends to be weaklyrelated to risk perception variables. Finally,post-modern claims and their rejection ofquantitative methods are critically discussed.     

Unraveling the Genetic Component of Multifactorial Diseases: Dream or Reality

The etiology of many human diseases is complex and very likely involves a combination of genetic and environmental risk factors. A popular strategy to detect genetic risk factors is to perform a systematic screening of the genome searching for linkage. The power of such and approach depends very much on the unknown characteristics of the genetic factors and the main difficulty is to establish a good trade-off between false positives and false negatives. Besides, a precise localisation of the risk factor will generally not be obtained. The set up of a candidate gene stratery is necessary to go further in genetic factor identification. It is likely that for multicfactorioal diseases the only genetic risk factors that can be detected are those with fairly strong effect. Even in that case, it is important to design strategies which increase the power of detection and provide for a better evaluation of the associated risks.     

A New Decision Making Model for Subcontractor Selection and Its Order Allocation

All experts agree on the importance of subcontracting. The high impact of subcontractors on the construction process means that the selection of subcontractors is a sensitive activity. Previous investigations documented the selection of subcontractors based on criteria but did not consider the number of subcontracted tasks. This paper explores allocating the best portion of tasks to subcontractors while optimizing the risk and cost in the fixed project schedule. The study's main finding demonstrates that subcontractor selection without attention to the order allocation is not a realistic approach; therefore, a hybrid model that applies continuous ant colony and fuzzy set theory is proposed.