A time‐series approach to the determination of savings rates

Time series analysis is used to study the savings rate and its determinants. The real effective exchange rate is introduced as a new independent variable in the savings function. Borrowing constraints, the current account balance, real rate of interest, macroeconomic stability, and age dependency are shown to be significant determinants of the savings rate. In addition, the real effective exchange rate is found to be significant across countries. Violations of Purchasing Power Parity are shown to explain some of the differences in savings rates between Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.     

The economic burden of advanced Parkinson’s disease: an analysis of a UK patient dataset

Abstract

Background:

To evaluate the cost burden of patients with advanced Parkinson’s disease (PD) according to the waking hours per day spent in OFF state. An analysis of resource use comprising medical services, professional care and informal care data from an observational, cross-sectional study was conducted.

Methods:

A total of 60 physicians comprising 40 neurologists and 20 geriatricians across the UK participating in the Adelphi PD Disease Specific Programme took part. There were 302 PD patients at H&Y stages 3–5. Patients were characterised according to the percentage of time per day spent in OFF state (<25%, 26–50%, 51–75%, >75%).

Results:

Average 12-monthly total costs increased according to the time spent in OFF state from £25,630 in patients spending less than 25% of their waking hours in OFF to £62,147 for patients spending more than 75% of their time in OFF. Overall, 7% of costs were attributed to direct medical care, while 93% were split between direct non-medical professional care (50%) and indirect informal care (43%).

Limitations:

Low patient numbers in the more advanced disease stages of PD led to very little or no data to directly inform some of the severe health states of the analysis. Data gaps were filled in with data derived from a regression analysis which may affect the robustness of the analysis.

Conclusion:

This study illustrates the increasing costs of advancing PD, in particular related to the time spent in OFF state, and identifies that the foremost cost burden is associated with the care needs of the patient rather than medical services.     

On the determinants of household debt maturity choice

This article jointly analyses a behavioural and a cultural concept to explain household debt portfolio choice. The behavioural approach explores the role of time preferences on household debt maturity in a theoretical model and a numerical analysis. We derive a positive relationship between the long-term discount factor δ and the optimal maturity of household loans. The cultural approach examines whether national culture is a reasonable predictor for household debt maturity. We show that culture is an important factor for households’ borrowing decisions and has even more predictive power than time preferences. Countries with higher scores on the Hofstede dimension of long-term orientation tend to have shorter household debt maturity. Time preferences incur a primarily mediating role, because the effect of national culture on the borrowing decision is reduced, as the long-term discount factor δ increases.     

Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?

This article uses a small set of variables – real GDP, the inflation rate and the short-term interest rate – and a rich set of models – atheoretical (time series) and theoretical (structural), linear and nonlinear, as well as classical and Bayesian models – to consider whether we could have predicted the recent downturn of the US real GDP. Comparing the performance of the models to the benchmark random-walk model by root mean-square errors, the two structural (theoretical) models, especially the nonlinear model, perform well on average across all forecast horizons in our ex post, out-of-sample forecasts, although at specific forecast horizons certain nonlinear atheoretical models perform the best. The nonlinear theoretical model also dominates in our ex ante, out-of-sample forecast of the Great Recession, suggesting that developing forward-looking, microfounded, nonlinear, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models of the economy may prove crucial in forecasting turning points.     

The Route Matters: Poverty and Inequality among Lone-Mother Households in Russia

Using the case of Russia, this paper takes issue with the stereotype of lone mothers as the poorest women in society, with the most disadvantaged children. Analysis of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey suggests there is enormous diversity in the material circumstances and livelihoods of lone mothers. Complementing the diversity of lone mothers' experiences is the finding that women who live with male partners, but who are responsible economically for their households, face problems much like those of lone mothers. The structural inequities that result from combining paid labor with unpaid care and childrearing have particularly adverse consequences for lone mothers and for women who bear the brunt of maintaining their households. While this analysis emphasizes the different aspects of the falsely homogenizing category “lone mother,” it also recognizes the structural disadvantages shared by lone mothers and other women in Russia today.     

The incremental time costs of children: An analysis of children's impact on adult time use in Australia

Abstract

Raising children takes both time and money. Scholars have sought convincing ways to capture the costs of children, but even when these estimates include indirect costs, such as mothers' foregone earnings, they fall short of the true time costs involved. This paper uses data from the 1997 Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Time Use Survey to study how the allocation of time differs across households with varying numbers and ages of children and how households with children differ from those without children. It also examines the intra household division of time resources, showing how childcare, related unpaid work, and the total market and non-market workloads compare for a couple in the same household. It includes secondary activity in an analysis of total parental time commitments to give a more accurate picture of the time cost of children than is possible on the basis of analyzing “primary” activities alone.     

Minimising emergency response time of ambulances through pre-positioning in Dhaka city,Bangladesh

This study conducted a large-scale survey in Dhaka, Bangladesh; the survey involved 95 major hospitals, more than 3000 emergency room patients, and 2 of the largest ambulance operators. Currently, most ambulances are parked within the vicinity of hospitals and are either dispatched or fetched by the acquaintances of the patient on demand, resulting in lengthy round trips. Reducing the response time of ambulances would certainly improve the emergency service, and pre-positioning of the ambulances could be a solution to reducing the response time. This study used two approaches to address the problem. First, the location-allocation problem was solved to find the optimal number of ambulance locations by maximising the demand coverage. Second, separate location-allocation for the peak and off-peaks, using K-means clustering, was applied to systematically optimise the ambulance positioning in small clusters near demand points. These approaches could substantially improve the existing emergency response time. Distributing ambulances near demand points yielded greater improvements in response time than when the ambulances are stationed near hospitals.     

广州市居民的旅游偏好和出游时间研究

根据2001年10月至2002年1月对广州702名市场进行的抽样调查资料，对广州市居民的旅游偏好和出游时间进行了分析研究，试图找出广州居民的旅游偏好和出游时间特征。     

Suburban Nongrowth Policies

Because work time and its control are unevenly distributed, it shapes opportunities across different groups in society, both reflecting and reinforcing existing forms of inequality. Work time flexibility is seen by many as a way to promote gender equality by increasing the ability of women to exercise some control over their work time, thus facilitating their ability to participate in paid work while maintaining families. Yet, flexibility may take on very different meanings in different contexts, particularly with respect to the degree of control workers have over important aspects of their working time. This paper examines the meaning and distribution of work time flexibility for women in the United States. The paper begins with a brief discussion of the social construction and gendered nature of work time, and the complex and evolving distribution of work time in the United States. Measures of flexibility that seek to capture different aspects of workers' control over work time are then defined and examined through recent data for male and female workers from the General Social Survey (GSS).     

Reform of Metropolitan Governments; Minority Perspectives; Metropolitanization and Public Services

America has often been labeled a "throw-away" society due to the large amount of products that could have been reused but are discarded from a typical household on a daily basis. This paper attempts to answer the question of why, when given two consumers with the same income level and socio-economic background, does one consumer choose to replace an older, malfunctioning household product while the other chooses to have the product repaired for further reuse. To help address this question an enhanced replacement model is presented and empirically tested. The replacement model has been around for some time, helping consumers and firms make capital budgeting decisions. This analysis can be extrapolated to the macro level where one economy with a higher societal discount rate might be more strongly characterized as a "throw-away society" than a similar economy with lower societal consumption discount rates.