GATT过境自由争端第一案评析——评哥伦比亚入境口岸限制措施案

在对哥伦比亚有关入境口岸限制措施的审理中,WTO专家组第一次适用《关税与贸易总协定》第5条做出裁决。在裁决中专家组解释了该条的适用范围和所规定的具体义务,明确了成员方在不同情形下对过境运输货物的义务,对成员方有关贸易管理措施的实施具有指导意义。     

KEY WDRDS for Foreign Investment in China

FDI(Foreign Direct Investment),a component of a country's national financlal accounts,is investment of foreign assets into domestic structures,equipment,and organizations.It does not include foreign investment into the stock markets,concession and subcontract.FDI iS thought to be more useful to a country than investments in the equity of its companies because equity investments are potentially "hot money"which can leave at the first sign of trouble,whereas FDI is durable and generally useful whether things go well or badly.     

论市场对财政的约束

市场经济的本质和效率在于尊重私人主体的选择行为,财政行为也不例外。财政与市场相伴相生、分工合作,共同实现效率、公平、稳定的统一。但是,市场是基础性的,财政要受到市场的约束,从经济的角度分析,市场对财政的约束主要体现在财政收入和财政支出上;从管理的角度分析,市场对财政的约束主要体现在财政管理的法制化上。     

海峡两岸票据抗辩限制原则除外制度研究

为保护票据流通中的善意受让人,以维护票据的安全性和便捷性,海峡两岸票据法均对票据抗辩制度予以合理限制。笔者以"债权承受说"为理论依据,研读我国海峡两岸抗辩限制的立法例,具体探讨了抗辩限制除外的两种情形:恶意抗辩和对价抗辩,并从实证角度对存在恶意无对价取得票据的法     

Changes in US Monetary Policy and Its Transmission over the Last Century

In this paper, we investigate US monetary policy and its time‐varying effects over more than 130 years. For that purpose, we use a Bayesian time‐varying parameter vector autoregression that features modern shrinkage priors and stochastic volatility. Our results can be summarized as follows: First, we find that monetary policy transmits jointly through the interest rate, credit/bank lending and wealth channels. Second, we find evidence for changes of both responses to a monetary policy shock and volatility characterizing the macroeconomic environment. Effects on the macroeconomy are significantly lower in the period from 1960 to 2013 than in the early part of our sample, whereas responses of short‐ and long‐term interest rates are nearly unaltered throughout the sample. Changes in the way the Fed conducts monetary policy and different economic environments may account for that.     

房地产业链纵向双轨与房地产价格分析

本文分析了近年来我国土地市场乱象和长期高速持续的房价上涨原因,并提出了政策建议:短期着重于抑制投机需求,中长期的政策则应逐渐减缓产业链上下游的市场垄断力量,消除产业链上下游双轨制,从根本上改善商品住房供需失衡矛盾。     

不完全信息、外部约束与保险监管策略

保险市场普遍存在的信息不完全现象,不仅仅体现在保险公司和投保人之间,也体现在监管机构和保险公司之间,这个问题对保险监管的有效性具有很大影响;受各种因素的影响,监管机构的行为不一定严格遵循监管原则,从而会进一步造成监管效率的损失。要解决这个问题,研究证明,加强对保险监管机构的外部约束是一个可行的策略,通过对监管机构建立完备的激励约束机制,可以提高保险监管的有效性,这对我国保险监管的改革和创新也具有较强的现实意义。     

基于事件驱动的证券市场波动生成机制分析

文章通过对事件驱动下的股票价格走势分析发现,事件对股票价格的波动率影响与该事件的作用强度、影响幅度和作用时间有关;为定量描述上述规律,首先构建了股票价格走势曲线的S-曲线模型,从数值模拟结果来看,S-曲线符合事件驱动股票价格波动的规律。然后基于多事件共同驱动的观点,提出S-曲线叠加模型,在有限市场资金约束条件下,通过分析发现事件驱动下的股票价格波动曲线由S-曲线转变成具有最值的单峰曲线;基于市场整体走势,给出了大盘指数影响下股票价格波动同向与异向变化的规律;最后,基于事件驱动机制,提出了"矩形窗口"的交易策略。     

The effect of monetary policy on output in EMU3: A sign restriction approach

This paper examines the effects of monetary policy shocks on output in the three largest euro area economies – Germany, France and Italy (EMU3) – by applying a new VAR identification procedure. The results show that monetary policy innovations are at their most potent in Germany. However, apart from Germany, it remains ambiguous as to whether a rise in interest rates concludes with a fall in output, showing a lack of homogeneity in the responses. Homogeneity in response to a monetary shock is crucial in a one-size-fits-all framework. Nonetheless, the lack of similarity between the responses, which is hypothesised to cause de-synchronised business cycles in optimal currency area literature, is often based on the premise that monetary policy itself is a major source of business cycle fluctuations. This paper concludes that monetary policy innovations play, at most, a modest role in generating fluctuations in output for the EMU3. Consequently, it is less important whether the effects of monetary policy are homogenous.     

高科技上市公司投资和内部融资敏感性研究

高新技术产业在国民经济发展中的作用越来越明显,但融资困难问题已成为约束高新技术企业发展的瓶颈。我国高科技上市公司投资—现金流敏感系数显著为正,不确定性对投资具有显著的负的影响。以现金红利、股权性质作为融资约束的标准时,融资约束和投资—现金敏感性同向变动。我国高科技上市公司投资—现金流敏感系数主要源于自由现金流理论下的投资过度。