The search for asterisks: Compromised statistical tests and flawed theories

This paper discusses repeated tests and the resultant reporting of statistical significance when it is actually not present. These errors interact with professional norms such as biases against both replication studies and ‘non‐results’ to undermine the efficacy of our base of empirically tested theory. This raises serious issues for the future of strategic management research. Suggestions are made for dealing with these issues substantively and in terms of professional norms. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

农业灌溉经济统计中的信息管理与建设

水资源和水土环境资料的整理分析,是农业水利灌溉中一项细致复杂的统计基础工作.全面客观地反映农业灌溉统计信息的各项指标、经济整体与灌溉水环境影响因素,定期撰写农村灌渠水土环境统计分析报告,及时提供灌溉指标数据,实现有效信息交换与共享,更新完善灌溉统计数据库,建设统计信息智能网络化平台,健全灌溉信息通报机制,充实基层统计队伍,提高灌溉统计信息分析、监测量化和服务管理能力,是实现农业水利统计的准确性、时效性、科学性和权威性的要求.     

2019—2020年长沙市生产安全事故统计分析

为探究生产安全事故的演化规律，基于长沙市2019—2020年生产安全事故的数据，从事故发生时间、发生区域、行业和领域分布、事故等级等方面进行分析。研究表明：2019—2020年事故数量和死亡人数呈下降趋势，1月、8月、10月事故数量和死亡人数较多，2月事故数量和死亡人数少；非主城区的事故数量和死亡人数高于主城区，事故数量和死亡人数在空间上的分布比较均衡；道路运输和工矿商贸行业在全市生产安全事故中占绝大多数；工矿商贸行业中，建筑施工行业的事故数量和死亡人数最多；一般事故所产生的事故数量和死亡人数最多，重大事故的事故死亡率最高。     

The time‐varying performance of UK analyst recommendation revisions: Do market conditions matter?

This study examines the time‐varying performance of investment strategies following analyst recommendation revisions in the UK stock market, with specific emphasis on the impact of changing market conditions. We find a negative relationship between the recommendation performance and market conditions as measured in terms of past market return and market volatility. In particular, the upgrade (downgrade) portfolio generates significantly positive (negative) net abnormal returns in bad market conditions (e.g., the dot‐com bubble burst in 2000 and the credit crisis in 2007), but not in other periods of time. Moreover, our non‐temporal threshold regression analysis shows that the reported negative relationship disappears when market conditions become better, i.e., when the past market return (market volatility) is higher (lower) than a certain level, indicating the importance of taking non‐linearity into account in the long sample period as examined in this study. Our time‐series bootstrap simulations further confirm that the superior recommendation performance in bad market conditions is not due to random chance; analysts have certain skills in making valuable up/downward revisions in bad markets.     

Bootstrap J-Test for Panel Data Models with Spatially Dependent Error Components,a Spatial Lag and Additional Endogenous Variables

We develop a bootstrap J-test method for testing a panel model against one non-nested alternative when the competing specifications are estimated by Feasible Generalised Spatial Two Stage Least Squares/Generalised Method of Moments (FGS2SLS/GMM). Both models incorporate spatially correlated error components, thus accounting for spatial heterogeneity via random effects, and accommodate endogenous regressors other than the spatially lagged dependent variable. The proposed scheme is applied to a testing problem involving non-nested wage equations as motivated by the Wage Curve literature and the New Economic Geography theory. Results show that our bootstrap test is a reliable and effective procedure for correcting asymptotic reference critical values and distinguishing between the two rival hypotheses.     

Statistical inference on restricted partial linear regression models with partial distortion measurement errors

We consider the estimation and hypothesis testing problems for the partial linear regression models when some variables are distorted with errors by some unknown functions of commonly observable confounding variable. The proposed estimation procedure is designed to accommodate undistorted as well as distorted variables. To test a hypothesis on the parametric components, a restricted least squares estimator is proposed under the null hypothesis. Asymptotic properties for the estimators are established. A test statistic based on the difference between the residual sums of squares under the null and alternative hypotheses is proposed, and we also obtain the asymptotic properties of the test statistic. A wild bootstrap procedure is proposed to calculate critical values. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the performance of the proposed procedure, and a real example is analyzed for an illustration.     

基于统计口径相机选择的宏观税负评价

宏观税负国际比较选择的口径是否合理、科学,决定着是否能够真实反映一国微观经济主体的总体负担水平。结合我国的现实情况,选择统计口径时应遵循真实性、可比性原则;坚持宏观税负口径的动态选择,通过财政收入制度的不断完善,实现“大口径”向“小口径”的稳步过渡;根据宏观税负国际比较的对象不同,应“因国制宜”,采用不同的统计口径,即与发达国家的宏观税负比较——以“大”比“小”,与发展中国家的宏观税负比较——以“中”比“中”。     

Organizational configurations and performance: the role of statistical power in extant research

The relationship between organizational configurations and performance has been a frequent albeit controversial subject of research in the field of strategic management. Many studies have failed to find a link between configurations and performance, leading prominent researchers to question the value of the concept of organizational configurations. Before the concept can be discarded, however, other plausible explanations for the lack of findings should be examined. This paper examines the possible role of statistical power. Specifically, it may be that the sample sizes in many studies are too small to detect relationships between configurations and performance when such links are, in fact, present. Analysis of 24 tests of the configurations–performance link revealed that only 8 percent had samples large enough to detect all important relationships. Thus, there is reason to suspect that insufficient statistical power may help to explain extant results. Given these findings, suggestions are presented for improving the ability of configurational studies to detect relationships. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

对统计数据质量的几点认识

统计数据是收集加工数据的重要工作,中国统计数据质量中存在着诸如数据不实、信息滞后、分析不够等问题。加 强统计数据质量管理、提高数据质量,必须加强统计管理体制和统计制度改革,加强监督职能,建立健全数据质量评价机制。