Stock markets’ bubbles burst and volatility spillovers in agricultural commodity markets

Our paper focuses on commodity financialization and the gradual integration between commodity and financial markets, investigating to what extent shocks in stock markets impact commodity price volatility, and the persistency of the phenomenon. To this end, we estimate Volatility Impulse Response Function from stock markets to agricultural commodity markets over a symmetric window before and after two of the most important bubble bursts since the new millennium, the 2000 dot.com bubble and the 2008 financial crises. Results highlight that volatility spillover increased significantly after the 2008 financial crises, signalling a rising interconnection between financial and agricultural commodity markets.     

Capital Market Integration in the Middle East and North Africa

This paper studies capital market integration in Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries and its implications for international portfolio investment allocation. Starting with four cointegration methodologies, we significantly reject the hypothesis of a stable, long-run bivariate relationship between each of these markets and the European Monetary Union (EMU), the United States, and a regional benchmark. This indicates the existence of significant diversification opportunities for three categories of investors (EMU, world, and regional investors). A recursive analysis based on Barari (2004) suggests that recently, the MENA markets have started to move toward international financial integration. Investigating the effect of selected financial, economic, and political events on such a process, we extend the methodology and find that the markets react heterogeneously to the different categories of shocks. They should therefore not be treated as a bloc for global allocation purposes. Finally, after adjusting the integration levels by relative market capitalization, Israel and Turkey are the most promising markets in the region, followed by Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco. Tunisia and Lebanon seem to be lagging behind.     

股票期权激励陷阱研究

理论上讲我国实施股票期权可以有效解决经理人长期激励不足和经营者道德风险问题,也有利于上市公司降低委托成本,吸引并稳定人才.但由于我国股票市场不完善及股东与管理者的信息不对称等问题的存在,股票期权激励机制在我国的运用效果欠佳,从而产生了激励陷阱.文章通过对股权激励陷阱表现形式及形成原因的分析,提出了规避此类陷阱的具体措施.     

印花税调整对股票价格影响的实证研究

印花税下调在短期内对大盘股指产生显著影响,但这种影响随时间的推移而逐渐减弱;税率下调对沪市和深市单只股票具有冲击效应,个股产生正的超额收益;税率下调对两市的大盘波动性产生显著影响,刺激了"噪声交易者",在短期内产生了噪声效应。目前印花税仍然存在一些不足,建议:拓宽税基,改双向征税为单向征税,尽快开征股票交易税。     

论理性预期理论的合理性

作对理性预期理论进行了较全面的分析,指出这一假说理论上的合理性。有效市场理论及国外一些国家在治理通货膨胀方面的实践均是理性预期理论与实践较完善的结合。作把理性预期理论当作一种工具,尝度着用这一理论对我国经济现状进行了分析,同时给出了政策性的建设。     

我国股票市场对冲通货膨胀风险能力的时间区间效应研究

本文以我国股票市场为例,使用了上证A股和深证A股指数数据,对股票市场对冲通货膨胀风险的时间区间效应进行了研究。通过对前人研究模型的拓展,结合面板数据模型,细致地研究了我国股票市场对冲通货膨胀的时间区间效应,并得出了股票持有期与对冲通货膨胀能力的关系。本文的结论是:我国股票市场上较长持有期限(30个月及以上)不一定会导致对冲通货膨胀效果的改进;相对于短线操作来说,12到24个月之间的持有期长度可以在节约交易成本的情况下规避通货膨胀风险。     

交易所年报问询能提升上市公司盈余质量吗？——基于深交所数据的实证分析

在上市公司公告年报后,交易所会组织专业人员对年报进行审核,并针对可能的疑问向上市公司发放年报问询函,要求公司回复并公开披露。基于这一制度背景,以深交所A股上市公司为研究对象,针对2014年至2017年间年报被问询的上市公司进行研究,发现在控制其他因素后,当年度年报被交易所问询的公司,其盈余管理程度更高、盈余质量更差,表明交易所在年报审核中是有的放矢的,关注到此类盈余质量更差的公司;同时发现,国有控股公司被问询的可能性低于非国有控股公司,表明交易所在年报问询中可能存在偏倚现象;进一步检验发现在年报被问询后,公司次年的盈余管理程度依然较高,盈余质量并未得到改善,年报问询这一非处罚性监管措施在改善盈余质量方面的监管效果有限。     

Transfers and the Samuelson Rule in Stock Externality Provision—Why Do We Need Them Both?

This paper examines the relationship between the Samuelson rule for efficient provision of stock externality and unilateral transfers for equalization of mitigation costs among the agents. Using a generic model of stock externality provisions, we proved that the revised Samuelson rule that allows transfers is a necessary and sufficient condition for efficient provision of stock externalities. In addition, selection of social welfare weights of the agents plays a key role in directions and magnitudes of the transfers. We discuss the implications of the revised Samuelson rule in economic modeling of climate change, an empirical case of stock externality, through numerical simulations in the RICE model.     

基于中国股市微观结构的流动性与执行成本分析

运用市场微观结构理论来分析中国股市的交易制度、流动性和执行成本后发现:(1)在佣金和交易税相等的条件下,B股的知情交易者执行成本普遍大于A股,导致B股的流动性小于A股,买卖价差显著大于A股,表明投资者对B股交易要求较高的风险报酬;(2)一旦控制住执行成本中普通交易者对知情交易者所要求的风险补偿,A、B股买卖价差的区别就消失了。因此,证券管理部门应在B股市场引入做市商制度并在微观结构理论的指导下,加强交易监管系统,从而提高B股的流动性并降低其执行成本。