财务重述、管理层权力与股价崩盘风险：来自中国证券市场的经验证据

股市震荡引发投资者和监管层对股价崩盘风险的关注。从财务重述背后所反映的财务信息质量低下和公司治理失效出发,探讨其对股价崩盘风险的影响,结合管理层权力这一影响组织行为和产出能力的代理人特征,探讨其对财务重述与股价崩盘风险之间关系的影响。研究结果表明：相比未发生财务重述的公司,发生了财务重述的公司的股价崩盘风险明显更高;进一步纳入代理人特征———管理层权力后,发现代理人的这一特征对上述关系有明显的促进作用。     

The impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock returns of Turkish tourism companies

Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) has various implications for financial markets. This study examines the effects of EPU on stock prices of listed tourism companies in Turkey for the time period of 2002–2013. We show that EPU in Europe and Turkey has significant negative effects on tourism index returns. The finding reflects that stock returns of the Turkish tourism companies apparently depend on domestic and international economic uncertainty. Among the included macroeconomic variables, consumer confidence index is the only factor which has an impact on stock returns.     

公司策略性媒体披露行为研究最新进展与述评

因为新闻媒体对资产定价的重要影响,致使越来越多公司管理层开始重视对媒体披露的主动管理,特别是重大事件期间,公司的策略性媒体披露倾向尤为明显,以谋求自身利益的最大化。与此同时,这一现象也日益为学者们所关注,并开始成为公司财务与金融研究的热点前沿。本文主要基于行为金融学视角,从公司策略性媒体披露的内涵、动因、方式、主要内容及表现等维度,对现有相关文献进行了系统梳理,旨在进一步剖析公司管理层在媒体披露中的重要作用,帮助人们更好地理解和把握股票市场波动的成因及本质。最后,就其未来研究方向做了进一步的探讨。     

企业社会责任能降低股价同步性吗？——基于强制披露企业社会责任报告的准自然实验

中国2008 年沪深证券交易所强制披露社会责任报告政策为笔者研究其政策效应提供了准 自然实验,文章以2006-2011 年中国A 股上市公司为样本,分别从信息不对称和代理成本两条路 径研究强制披露社会责任报告对股价同步性的影响。运用PSM-DID 双重差分模型研究发现: 强制 披露社会责任报告与股价同步性呈现显著负相关关系,说明强制披露社会责任报告有助于降低股 价同步性,在通过安慰剂实验、变量替换和平行效应检验等稳健性检验后,以上结论仍成立。对 影响路径的分析发现,强制披露社会责任报告通过降低信息不对称和代理成本影响未来股价同步 性。     

Time-varying relationship of news sentiment,implied volatility and stock returns

I examine the relationship between aggregate news sentiment, S&P 500 index (SPX) returns, and changes in the implied volatility index (VIX). I find a significant negative contemporaneous relationship between changes in VIX and both news sentiment and stock returns. This relationship is asymmetric whereby changes in VIX are larger following negative news and/or stock market declines. Vector autoregression (VAR) analysis of the dynamics and cross-dependencies between variables reveals a strong positive relationship between previous and current period changes in implied volatility and stock returns, while current period and lagged news sentiment has a significant positive (negative) relationship with stock returns (changes in VIX). I develop a simple trading strategy whereby high (low) levels of implied volatility signal attractive opportunities to take short (long) positions in the underlying index, while extremely negative (positive) news sentiment signals opportunities to enter short (long) index positions. The investor fear gauge (VIX) appears to perform better than news sentiment measures in forecasting future returns.     

Portfolio efficiency analysis with SFA: the case of PSI-20 companies

This study aimed to assess the technical efficiency (TE) of individual companies and their respective sectors that are traded on the Portuguese stock market. We accomplished this by combining the internal input variables (e.g., ‘market value and return’) with exogenous variables (e.g., ‘interest income’, ‘depreciation’, ‘cost of goods’, ‘employees’ and ‘net sales’) into a Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) model. The TE of the PSI-20 (Portuguese Stock Index) was estimated using factors that affect efficiency variability. The main advantage of using the SFA approach is its potential to discriminate between measurement error and systematic inefficiencies in the estimation process. The results demonstrated that TE is higher for enterprises in the industrial, construction and distribution sectors, whereas the commercial banking sector has the lowest TE scores. The ‘employees’ and ‘depreciation’ are the variables which most contribute to stock market inefficiency.     

Economic integration and stock market dynamic linkages: evidence in the context of Australia and Asia

Countries are becoming economically integrated and it is contended that this will also lead to their financial markets becoming integrated. This contention is important since international financial market integration diminishes portfolio diversification benefits and creates contagion risk. We test this contention in this article in the context of the Australasian region. Australia and Asia have experienced very significant economic integration through a rapid growth in their bilateral trade. We utilize a battery of econometric techniques – cointegration, asymmetric generalized dynamic conditional correlations and panel regression models. As expected, we find that trade intensity significantly drives the interdependence between their stock markets in both the short run and the long run. Thus, given the ever increasing economic integration in this region, this finding implies that their stock markets face the risk of contagion, and that investors in these markets would also be confronted with the prospect of lower diversification benefits.     

A non-linear approach for predicting stock returns and volatility with the use of investor sentiment indices

The popular sentiment-based investor index S^BW introduced by Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) is shown to have no predictive ability for stock returns. However, Huang et al. (2015) developed a new investor sentiment index, S^PLS, which can predict monthly stock returns based on a linear framework. However, the linear model may lead to misspecification and lack of robustness. We provide statistical evidence that the relationship between stock returns, S^BW and S^PLS is characterized by structural instability and inherent nonlinearity. Given this, using a nonparametric causality approach, we show that neither S^BW nor S^PLS predicts stock market returns or even its volatility, as opposed to previous empirical evidence.