World Oil Depletion Models: Price effects compared with strategic or technological interventions

World oil depletion, including natural gas liquids, was modelled in the past by many authors. Recently, Guseo and Dalla Valle have introduced and Guidolin has applied a new approach following perturbed life-cycle diffusion models. Here we examine joint effects of economic and strategic or technological interventions using a Generalized Bass Model (GBM). Statistical analysis takes into account three different hierarchical levels: natural diffusion, long memory interventions and stochastic components. The main results confirm the statistical significance of historical 1970s shocks and highlight a strong long memory effect due to an increase in oil production after World War II. The estimated peak-date, 2007, and the 90% depletion time, 2019, are determined under an equilibrium intervention hypothesis.     

Competitive supply behavior when price information is fuzzy

The theory of fuzzy sets is applied to the output decisions of a price-taking firm facing imprecise information about expected future prices. Accepting risk resulting from the randomness of prices, the manager is interested in expected profits only. Since the set of possible expected-price vectors is fuzzy, a suitable defuzzification strategy is defined in analogy to the pessimism-optimism index proposed by L. Hurwicz. It depends on the manager's willingness to accept surprises resulting from a deviation of the true expected prices from the values that guided output decisions. Despite a linear cost function, well specified solutions to the optimization problem are possible without resorting to capacity constraints.     

我国旅游价格管理：现状、改革背景与政策分析

旅游业发展是一项复杂的系统工程，需要各相关行业和各项政策措施的配套协调。由于旅游价格的杠杆效应，如何应对入世给我国旅游业带来的挑战，改革并完善与国际接轨的旅游价格管理新体制是每一个旅游价格管理工作者应当思考的现实问题。     

经理股票期权与会计信息失真

本文分析了经理股票期权的激励原理,对它的理论假设提出了质疑,从而揭示了这一激励机制产生偏差的根本原因,并从本源上探寻了经理股票期权与会计信息失真的联系。     

如何保护中小投资者的利益

我国证券市场繁荣发展的基石是有效保护投资者的利益,而其中最主要的是保护中小投资者的利益,股票市场的中小投资者地位处于劣势,加之我国股票市场的不规范,企业筹资理念的错位,使其利益经常遭受侵犯,文章结合一些案例,对侵犯中小投资者利益的手法进行了剖析,并提出了相应的保护中小投资者利益的若干措施。     

会计信息质量与市场定价分析

本文以应计质量、盈余持续性、盈余可预测性、盈余平滑度作为会计信息质量的代理变量,通过研究会计信息不同纬度的质量与权益资本成本之间的关系,为投资者的市场定价及对信息质量的关注程度提供证据。研究结果表明,除盈余的持续性不显著外,其他各项质量与权益资本成本之间均呈负相关关系;在对权益资本成本的影响程度方面,无论是单独影响还是条件影响,应计质量影响程度最大,其次是可预测性。     

International Comparisons of Australia's Infrastructure Performance

International benchmarking has played a key role in the reform of Australia's infrastructure industries by promoting indirect or yardstick competition, in highlighting the need for further reform and building a consensus for implementing necessary changes. The international benchmarking of infrastructure performance by the Bureau of Industry Economics (BIE) between 1991 and 1996 did much to focus attention on the need for change. The BIE examined the performance of eight infrastructure industries relative to international best practice: electricity, rail freight, telecommunications, the waterfront, road freight, coastal shipping, aviation and gas supply. Performance comparisons concentrated on indicators of price, service quality, labour productivity and capital productivity. This paper reviews and summarises the performance comparisons the BIE undertook over the last three years of its infrastructure benchmarking program. The BIE international benchmarking program provides a useful role model for other countries wanting to seriously pursue reform of their infrastructure industries.     

中国股市对经济增长作用的实证检验

关于金融体系和经济增长之间关系的争论由来已久。本文在分析国外关于这一争论的研究成果的基础上,对中国的股票市场发展与经济增长之间的关系做了一系列实证检验,考察了金融体系的一个组成部分———股票市场与经济增长的关系。检验结果说明,中国股市发展与经济增长之间的相关性不高,回归结果也不能说明中国股市发展会推动经济增长。     

含价格折扣、允许缺货的两级供应链库存模型

研究一个供应商、多个销售商组成的两级供应链库存系统,针对具有价格弹性的市场需求、含有价格折扣、允许供应商和销售商产生缺货以及满足供应商和销售商Pareto有效性的情况,建立了使供应链系统整体盈利最大的存贮模型。并结合算例分析了价格弹性因子对系统盈利水平的影响。     

对企业技术创新自我实现的经济学分析

本文从经济学的理论角度分析了企业技术创新自我实现的可能性。分析发现：产品被成熟生产后的产量与资本报酬和资本边际生产率的大小有直接关系。因此，企业发展内部本身就可以通过市场供需调节来实现创新的循环和延续。从这一点上说，国家对于企业技术创新的鼓励政策应该更加依靠市场机制的作用。