基于小波神经网络的鱼类价格预测研究

鱼类市场价格是影响渔民收益的重要因素,因此如何能够准确分析和预测鱼类的价格是一个十分重要的问题.论文在考虑了BP网络原形的一些缺点和不足,尝试在传统BP算法的基础上将网络神经元中的激励函数换成小波子函数,组建成的小波神经网络.通过对鲈鱼价格的预测,验证了小波神经网络的可行性,然后基于阿里巴巴的鲈鱼价格的历史数据,验证了该方法的合理性.最后开展对新疆乌伦古湖水产综合基地三类主要鱼类价格预测的实证研究,研究结果表明河鲈和梭鲈的价格会有小幅的波动,但高白鲑的价格会有大幅的提升.因此,小波神经网络作为一种传统神经网络的改进,可用于预测鱼类价格的短期预测,为水产基地的决策提供依据.     

Price integration in the Australian rock lobster industry: implications for management and climate change adaptation

Rock lobster fisheries are Australia's most valuable wild fisheries in terms of both value of production and value of exports. Different states harvest and export different lobster species, with most of the landings being sent to the Hong Kong market. A perception in the Australian lobster industry is that the different species are independent on the export market, such that a change in landings of one species has no impact on the price of the others. This study investigates the market integration of Australian exports to Hong Kong for the four species and different exporting states. Our results indicate all four species and producers/export states are perceived to be substitutes for one another, so that, in the long run, prices paid to operators in the industry will move together. The integrated nature of the Hong Kong export market for Australian lobster suggests that the potential impacts of alternative fisheries management and development strategies at state and species levels cannot be considered in isolation, at least from an economic perspective. In addition, impacts of external shocks affecting production in one state (e.g. climate change) can be expected to affect all Australian lobster fisheries.     

结构失衡、供给约束与农产品涨价

近年来我国农产品价格大幅上涨,民众生活压力骤然增大.究其根源,见仁见智.文章认为,中国社会经济结构发展失衡是导致农产品价格大幅上涨的主要原因.多年来,受“重工轻农”思想观念的主导,各级政府以牺牲“三农”来支撑高速工业化和城市的快速扩张,导致了耕地面积和“职业农民”的锐减,农产品的生产能力严重不足.因此,必须修正宏观经济政策,加强农业的基础地位.     

能源价格对经济波动的影响分析

在考察经济波动的特征事实的基础上,将能源价格引入到不可分劳动的RBC模型中,通过对模型的校准和模拟,可验证模型对现实经济的解释力度。通过建立技术冲击与能源价格冲击的脉冲响应函数,分析技术冲击与能源价格冲击对经济的影响程度。通过分析,得出结论：一是能源价格对产出具有抑制作用,并且会加速通货膨胀,但是对于通货膨胀的推动作用具有滞后性;二是引入能源价格冲击的不可分劳动的RBC模型能够较好地解释产出和消费的波动;三是技术冲击和能源价格冲击都会引起经济的波动,技术冲击的强度要大于能源价格冲击,但是能源价格冲击对于经济波动的作用具有长期性。     

货币供给、信贷规模、外汇汇率与房价波动的联动机制研究--基于VAR模型的实证分析

投资性需求是推动我国房价非理性上扬的重要原因。高房价的背后无疑是大量国内外资金涌入我国的房地产市场进行资本逐利,而此股资金流动性强弱、规模大小是我国宏观经济形势和宏观经济政策的具体体现。文章基于VAR模型研究,发现我国货币供应规模、信贷规模以及外汇汇率与我国房价波动存在联动效应,通过方差分解方法分析货币供应、贷款规模以及外汇汇率对房价波动的贡献程度,可找到调节我国房价新的着力点。     

经济转型期居民消费影响因素的实证分析———以安徽省为例

文章结合安徽省居民消费水平的影响因素和居民消费水平的历史及现状列出了三个相关因素（居民可支配收入、居民储蓄以及居民消费价格指数）,对其进行计量分析,得到了相关模型,研究了模型中主要变量对模型的影响程度,并以此为依据提出相关对策建议.     

现行市价法在二手车评估中的应用

随着我国汽车保有量的不断增加,二手车市场发展势头良好,二手车常见评估方法有重置成本法、收益现值法、现行市价法和清算价格法四种.现行市价法以其能较好反映市场价值的特点而受到重视,本文主要介绍现行市价法的概念与使用条件,其次介绍了现行市价法的评估过程,并举例说明.为推广使用现行市价法提供参考.     

The value of 1800 MHz and 2100 MHz spectrums in India and implications for auction design

The sequence of events leading up to the upcoming auction of 1800 MHz spectrum in India has led to the auctions acquiring an extraordinary significance for the future of the Indian mobile industry. A key feature of the auction design proposed by the regulator TRAI is the benchmarking of the reserve price of 1800 MHz to the price of 2100 – 3G spectrum revealed in the 2010 auction. In the context of the low number of LTE devices available and the fragmentation in the 1800 MHz band, this paper proposes reducing the duration of spectrum holding to ten years (from the current level of twenty years), and calibrating the reserve price of 1800 MHz with its value with GSM deployment. An economic model is used to compute the value of startup and incremental 1800 MHz spectrum. The estimated values are shown to differ from the value of 2100 MHz spectrum at a pan-India level and also in their distribution across circles. A new set of reserve prices are computed based on the estimation. The estimated values are also shown to be close to the AGR-adjusted price revealed in the 2001 auction. A reserve price based on the 2001 auction is also provided. Concomitant features of the auction are suggested to give coherence to the auction design.     

房价“顽疾”：危害、病根与药方

高房价收入比表明我国房价普遍虚高。虚高的房价不仅会引发经济问题，甚至会引发社会问题。房价虚高及飞涨的根源在于供需失衡及地方政府和开发商的双重垄断。为此，中央政府应发挥其主导作用，利用行政手段及经济手段抑制地方政府行为，并在土地出让制度、金融政策等方面实行改革。     

从陶朱五字商训看阿尔迪的成功

以陶朱五字商训为主线,从五个方面分析了阿尔迪的经商原则,总结出了阿尔迪值得借鉴的成功经验：天,企业经营理念和明确的行为准则;地,商家诚信;人,仁,商家对待内外部的态度和原则;神,开拓事业的勇气和魄力;鬼,经商的手法。