基于ISM的可达矩阵的简便算法

解释结构模型化技术是最基本、最具特色的系统结构模型化技术,求可达矩阵又是建立递阶结构模型(ISM)中最重要的一步,本文基于ISM有向图,根据布尔代数运算规则,阐述一种更简便的由邻接矩阵求可达矩阵的新算法。本文与Warshall算法作对比,体现出该新算法的简便之处。该算法以后也可以实现计算机化。     

Oil shocks,policy uncertainty and stock returns in China

This paper examines the interdependence of China's policy uncertainty, the global oil market and stock market returns in China. A structural VAR model is estimated that shows that a positive shock to economic policy uncertainty in China has a delayed negative effect on global oil production, real oil prices and real stock market returns. Shocks to oil market‐specific demand significantly raise China's economic policy uncertainty and reduce the real stock market returns. As measured by a spillover index, the interdependence between these variables has been rising since 2003 as China's influence in the oil market has increased. An equivalent spillover index calculated for the US is smaller and has been largely flat over time.     

The relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in South Africa and Nigeria: structural breaks analysis

The relationship between stock prices and exchange rates has continued to generate interest from both the academia and financial industry players for many years. This study conducts an empirical investigation into the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for the two largest economies in Sub-Saharan Africa – South Africa and Nigeria. Our methodology accounts for structural breaks in the data and the long-run relationship between stock and foreign exchange markets. The results of multivariate causality tests with structural breaks showed that causality runs from exchange rates to domestic stock prices in Nigeria (flow channel) while in South Africa, no causality exists between domestic stock prices and exchange rates. The results also reveal that there is causality from the London stock market to both countries’ stock markets, thus showing that international stock markets are driving both the Nigerian and South African stock markets.     

Theory-Driven Choice Models

We explore issues in theory-driven choice modeling by focusing on partial-equilibrium models of dynamic structural demand with forward-looking decision-makers, full equilibrium models that integrate the supply side, integration of bounded rationality in dynamic structural models of choice and public policy implications of these models.     

日本《大店法》的形成与废止

日本制定<大店法>的初衷是为了调整大规模零售店铺的零售业务活动,协调超市、百货店及中小零售商业者的业务范围,而不是抵挡限制外资流通企业的进入.本文认为,<大店法>在日本是一部自相矛盾,违背自由竞争原则,阻碍流通现代化,抑制日本零售业国际竞争力的法律,其预期目标与实际效果大相径庭,其教训和经验值得我们深思.文章指出,在零售业发展阶段,政府用调整的手段往往是事与愿违.     

解释性：当代方言学的目标

现在国内的方言调查与研究工作业已取得可喜的阶段性的系列成果,今后理应在此基础上从理论上加强解释性。解释性是当代语言学的特征,也是当代方言学的目标。     

The Effects of Moral Reasoning and Self-Monitoring on CFO Intentions to Report Fraudulently on Financial Statements

This study adapts the theory of reasoned action (Ajzen and Fishbein, 1980) to the behavior of fraudulent reporting on financial statements so as to examine the effects of moral reasoning and self-monitoring on intention to report fraudulently, using structural equation modeling. The paper seeks to investigate two of the red flags for financial statement fraud identified in Loebbecke et al.'s (1989) paper: client management displays a significant lack of moral fiber and client personnel exhibit strong personality anomalies. As expected, high moral reasoners are more influenced than low moral reasoners by their own attitude towards the behavior. Contrary to prior research, low self-monitors are found to be more influenced than high self-monitors by subjective norms. Future research is recommended to investigate the counter-intuitive results for self-monitors, to consider the implications of group decision making as regards the promulgation of fraudulent financial statements, and to examine additional red flags for financial statement fraud.     

中国转轨经济中的银行资产选择行为分析——一个将制度性因素内生化的银行资产选择模型

本文立足于中国转轨经济中的信贷市场,强调制度性因素对银行贷款决策和资产选择行为的影响,通过建立一个银行资产选择模型,将这些制度性因素的影响内生化,利用广义的边际分析,分析了在不确定性条件下,中国商业银行贷款变动的原因以及由此导致的结构性信贷配给机制,并且指出,在中国以银行间接金融为主导的金融市场上,银行决策者在不确定性条件下根据自身的偏好和效用函数而作出的相对独立的贷款决策和资产选择行为,不仅可能导致货币政策失效,还可能对经济运行和经济增长的质量产生独立的影响.     

消费者对大型超市的商店印象与其忠诚行为关系实证研究

商店印象对消费者购物行为有重要的影响。本文在我们先前对商店印象与顾客忠诚关系研究的基础上,将商店印象与顾客忠诚的构面展开,进一步研究了商店印象的实体、经济、时间与便利性和社会心理构面与顾客认知忠诚、情感忠诚、意向忠诚和行为忠诚之间的关系,并通过在全国收集的803份有效样本,运用结构方程模型对理论模型进行了实证检验,全面揭示了商店印象各构面与四类顾客忠诚之间的关系。     

中国地区间财力差异的变化趋势及因素分解

本文利用Theil系数和分项收入分解方法从空间层面和构成层面对财力进行了地区分解和结构分解,以反映近年来中国地区间财力差异的变化趋势。从财力的空间层面看,地区间的产业结构层次、区域性的税收优惠政策和财政包干体制是导致地区间财力差异的重要原因;从财力的结构层面看,将营业税划为地方税、增值税和消费税税收返还以及所得税基数返还等保持既得利益的转移支付形式也是造成地区间财力差异的重要原因。