China's Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?

This paper analyzes whether the slowdown of China's trade in 2012–2015 was cyclical or structural, and further discusses the effects of structural factors, including trade structure, trade protectionism and global value chain participation. Using the national panel data from 2000 to 2015, based on the error correction model and import‐intensity‐adjusted demand model, our results show that the slowdown of China's trade growth in 2012–2015 was mainly a result of cyclical factors. Using 2000–2015 industry‐level data, we also find that the structure of trade goods had an inhibitory effect on the import slowdown but a positive effect on the export slowdown. Trade protectionism had an adverse effect on the trade growth slowdown. The global value chain participation marginally contributed to the slowdown in trade growth. Therefore, the impacts of structural factors on trade growth slowdown cannot be ignored, and related policies should receive greater attention from policy‐makers.     

Are business cycles stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend? Empirical evidence from 79 developing countries

There is a large literature that tests the univariate time series properties of the real output series following the seminal work of Nelson and Plosser (1982). Whether or not real output is characterized by a unit root process has important implications. A unit root in real output, for instance, is inconsistent with the notion that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend. In this paper, we investigate the univariate time series properties of real output for 79 developing countries using the conventional augmented Dickey and Fuller (1979) unit root test, the Zivot and Andrews’ (1992) one structural break unit root test, and the Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) two structural breaks unit root test. Our main finding is that, for 40 countries, real output is stationary around a trend. This indicates that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend for only 51% of the developing countries in our sample.     

结构转化、资本深化与农业劳动生产率提高——以上海为例的研究

本文集中分析农业劳动生产率提高的影响因素及影响机理,为此采用逻辑分析方法推演出"结构转化和资本深化是农业劳动生产率提高的基本方式"的结论。实证研究也显示,上海农业劳动生产率的优势主要源于其在结构转化和资本深化方面的优势,产业之间和产业内部的结构转化、农业内部和农业外部的资本深化确实提升了上海的农业劳动生产率,由此可引申出关于其他省区未来农业持续快速发展的若干政策建议。     

国民休闲驱动机制研究——生活方式、信息刺激与休闲消费行为的结构模型分析

当前,我国国民休闲发展正从构想变为现实,以宏观视角研究国民休闲驱动机制对于国民休闲政策的调整和制定具有特殊而重要的意义。回顾消费者购买行为模式和我国国民休闲研究历程,借助因子分析和结构方程模型分析生活方式、信息刺激、形象感知、体验质量、价格敏感五大潜变量间的结构关系,在此基础上提出国民休闲消费行为模型;并探讨了国民休闲消费的驱动机制并提出宏观国民休闲政策的四项措施。     

产业结构变迁与产业政策选择——以东亚经济体为例

在系统梳理已有相关文献的基础上,提出了一个关于产业结构变迁与产业政策选择的分析框架。产业结构变迁的规律(即配第—克拉克定律)是一条客观经济规律,当政府顺应这一规律,它就能选择性地运用产业政策来干预、影响甚至主导产业结构变迁的进程和速度。在不同的经济体制和发展水平下,政府会选择不同的产业政策,进而导致四种不同类型的产业结构变迁形式。以中国大陆、港台地区及韩国等东亚经济体为例,对上述问题进行了探析。     

基于结构突变理论的国内出游率趋势探析

通过考虑结构变化的单位根检验发现,1985～2008年的国内旅游年人均出游率是一个带有两个结构突变点的趋势平稳过程。1993年为截距突变点,2002年为截距与趋势双突变点。2003年后的出游率年均增长量远高于前期,以现有趋势看,可提前一年达到我国提出的2015年居民年均出游超过2次的发展目标。     

Assessing the role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in China’s macroeconomic fluctuation

The combination of a high growth rate and low information has been observed since the late 1990s in the Chinese economy. Should the fact be considered as a result of greatly improved supply capability or should the fact reflect the improvement in the government’s aggregate demand management? In this paper, we try to assess the role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in China’s macroeconomic fluctuation. We use a bivariate structural VAR model to investigate macroeconomic dynamics for China within the aggregate-demand and aggregate-supply framework, using the quarterly data in the period of 1996Q1–2005Q4. Our principal findings are following: (1) China’s high growth shall be associated more with greatly improved supply capability, especially after its WTO entrance. The expansionary aggregate demand policies may have limited effects to raise the growth rate in the post-1996 in China. This result suggests that we need a more pro-growth policy stance in order to maintain a high and stable growth. (2) The low inflation in that period is driven primarily by weak aggregate demand rather than supply factors.     

项目课程《商务活动口译》的亮点

基于工作过程的项目课程是高职教育课程改革的典型模式,也是解决当前高职应用英语专业教学瓶颈问题的有效途径。《商务活动口译》从开发流程、工作任务分析、课程结构设计、教学方法等方面均取得了一定的成效。     

产品过剩、产能过剩与经济结构调整

由美国金融危机引发的世界性经济危机使我国显露出产品相对过剩和产能结构性过剩问题,这种过剩与资本主义国家的产品相对过剩和产能过剩有相似之处,但也存在本质的不同.其产生原因除一般市场经济中的固有矛盾外,也有我国特有的原因和机制.建议政府增强宏观的行业信息传递和投资引导工作,合理引导投资方向和范围,根据实际情况对某些产品和产业投资进行宽松有限的管理,调整现有经济结构和产业结构.     

《食品安全法》解读及其对食品行业的影响分析

食品安全直接关系广大人民群众的身体健康和生命安全,关系国民经济的健康发展和社会的和谐稳定。文章首先解读了《食品安全法》涉及的八大制度及其主要内容,提出了法律实施的具体措施,其次从经济学的微观角度分析了《食品安全法》的实施对食品行业的影响,最后论述了食品企业对《食品安全法》的战略回应。