From economic decline to the current crisis in Italy

The objective of this paper is to show that the current global economic crisis, into which Italy also fell in 2008, represents just the last step of a long declining path for the Italian economy which began in the 1990s, or to be more precise in 1992 and 1993. It is argued that the reasons that explain the long Italian decline, and partly also the deeper recession today, as well as the lack of recovery from the current crisis, can be found in the past reforms of the labour market. In particular, the labour flexibility introduced in the last 15 years had, along with other policies introduced in parallel, cumulative negative consequences on the inequality, on the consumption, on the aggregate demand, on the labour productivity and on the GDP dynamics.     

Forecast uncertainty and the Taylor rule

In this paper, we derive a modification of a forward-looking Taylor rule by integrating two variables that measure the uncertainty of inflation and GDP growth forecasts into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model. We show that certainty-equivalence in New Keynesian models is a consequence of log-linearization and that a second-order Taylor approximation leads to a reaction function that includes the uncertainty of macroeconomic expectations. To test the model empirically, we use the standard deviation of individual forecasts around the median Consensus Forecast as a proxy for forecast uncertainty. Our sample covers the euro area, the United Kingdom, and the United States for the period 1990Q1–2016Q4. We find that the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have a significantly negative reaction to inflation forecast uncertainty. Our findings also reveal that the Federal Reserve (Bank of England) lowers (raises) its interest rate in response to higher GDP growth forecast uncertainty. We conclude by offering some implications for optimal monetary policy rules and central bank watchers.     

金融危机背景下影响我国物流企业跨国并购的因素分析及对策研究

从宏观和微观两个层面对金融危机背景下影响我国物流企业跨国并购的相关因素进行了分析,并提出了应对策略。     

后金融危机时代江西民营企业发展的战略选择

受全球性金融危机的影响，江西省部分民营企业的生产、销售、发展出现了前所未有的困难。江西民营经济已成为江西经济发展的生力军，在后金融危机时代江西民营企业要汲取金融危机的教训，不断创新发展，变危为机是江西民营经济发展的战略选择。     

美欧债务危机、金融动荡与中国应对策略

美欧债务危机暴露了美欧模式的深层次弊端,金融和经济危机正向社会和政治领域不断蔓延。依照美欧奉行的错误政策,中国无论投入多少资金挽救美欧债务危机都是毫无希望的,因为这些资金将落入金融垄断财团腰包而不是用于挽救经济,虽然能暂时换来美欧称赞但长期将会刺激更多的欲望,一旦无法持续满足其贪欲,对方就会翻脸,导致关系更加恶化。     

我国上市银行综合业绩评价——基于主成分分析方法的实证研究

本文利用主成分分析方法对我国14家上市银行2001—2008年的综合业绩进行了静态和动态实证分析,结果表明：国有商业银行股份制改革后,综合业绩大幅提高,抗风险能力大大增强;股份制商业银行综合业绩增长缓慢,抗风险能力较弱。而城市商业银行综合业绩增长潜力巨大,在金融危机中表现出了较强的抗风险能力。     

后危机时期世界经济格局的动态转换

始于2007年的金融危机,使全球经济遭到了历史罕见的巨大冲击。世界经济的各种力量对比开始发生此消彼长的变化,世界经济格局处于动态转换之中:世界经济结构加快调整,全球经济治理机制深刻变革,科技创新和产业转型孕育突破,发展中国家特别是新兴市场国家整体实力步入上升期,世界多极化深入发展。我国应科学认识世界经济格局变化特点,准确把握经济发展的战略机遇期,加快实施经济结构战略性调整,争取在未来的全球经济合作竞争中建立更大的比较优势。     

经济危机是对外贸易机构调整的良机

自08年美国次贷危机引发的经济危机已经席卷全球,此次经济危机具有较强的外部性、溢出传染性以及极大的危害性,对我国乃至全球的经济都造成了较大的影响出口贸易受到此次危机的影响已经开始大幅萎缩。通过这次经济危机,给各产业带来的冲击,使我们看到外贸结构调整势在必行。     

Communicating Tourism Crises Through Destination Websites

SUMMARY

The present paper addresses the issue of communicating tourism crises, with a special focus on the role of the destination marketing organization's Web sites. The risks and impact of the avian flu on the mobility of people, and consequently therefore, on tourism has been addressed. Selected tourism destinations crisis communication strategies were investigated through their Web sites. The findings should (a) bring to the attention of tourism authorities the potential role that destinations' Web sites have in helping to prevent worldwide diseases and to compare different approaches adopted by different types of destinations, and (b) help governments, destinations and other stakeholders to understand the conditions necessary for communicating tourism crises and outbreaks by using their Web sites as effective tools to better share information among them.