Antecedents of creative decision making in organizational crisis: A team-based simulation

Although it has been claimed that the devastation and complexities that characterize an organizational crisis may be addressed most effectively with creative solutions, theoretical and empirical research examining this challenge is scarce. We developed a theoretical model concerning creative decision making during organizational crisis for crisis management teams. To test this theory, we collected data from 191 individuals in 37 teams who participated in multi-hour, multi-phased organizational crisis simulations in the United States and Canada. Using regression analysis, we found that crisis management teams generated a creative decision when they were familiar with solutions, trusted their team members, and had creative intentions. This study supports organizational efforts to leverage education, training and accountability to reinforce creativity in crisis decision making.     

Relaciones laborales y medidas de ajuste frente a la crisis. Análisis microestadístico comparativo de Francia y Gran Bretaña

En este estudio comparativo, los autores analizan los vínculos entre las relaciones laborales y los ajustes salariales o de plantilla tras la crisis de 2007–2008, a partir de dos encuestas comparables sobre empresas de Gran Bretaña (WERS) y de Francia (REPONSE) en 2010–2012. Pese a las diferencias contextuales (composición del tejido productivo, circunstancias temporales e intensidad de la crisis), los vínculos entre las relaciones laborales y las estrategias de ajuste son parecidos (la presencia sindical no logra evitar los ajustes). Por lo tanto, la diferenciación de los sistemas de relaciones laborales no permite explicar las divergencias entre las modalidades de ajuste a nivel macroeconómico.     

Overall effects of financial liberalization: financial crisis versus economic growth

ABSTRACT

The contribution of this work consists firstly in decomposing the effect of financial liberalization into a global direct positive effect on growth and an indirect negative effect via financial fragility and crisis. We show that the aggregate positive effect of financial liberalization outweighs the negative partial or temporary effect. Secondly, contrary to previous works, we distinguish many types of financial reforms. We found that equity market liberalization is the most important component in reducing economical costs associated with financial crisis. Thus, equity market liberalization is the most important favoring growth. Interest rate liberalization enhances significantly the probability of crisis leading to a short-run indirect effect more important than other financial reforms. Thirdly, we improved our work by addressing model uncertainty using Bayesian Model Averaging techniques to choose appropriate indicators for model crisis specification.     

Using scenarios to forecast outcomes of a refugee crisis

The Syrian civil war has led to millions of Syrians fleeing the country, and has resulted in a humanitarian crisis. By considering how such socio-political events may unfold, scenarios can lead to informed forecasts that can be used for decision-making. We examined the relationship between scenarios and forecasts in the context of the Syrian refugee crisis. Forty Turkish students who had been trained to use a brainstorming technique generated scenarios that might follow within six months of the Turkish government banning Syrian refugees from entering the country. The participants generated 3–6 scenarios. Over half were rated as ‘high’ quality in terms of completeness, relevance/pertinence, plausibility, coherence, and transparency (order effects). The scenario quality was unaffected by the scenario quantity. Even though no forecasts were requested, the participants’ first scenarios contained 0–17 forecasts. The mean forecast accuracy was 45%, and this was unaffected by the forecast quantity. Therefore, brainstorming can offer a simple and quick way of generating scenarios and forecasts that can potentially help decision-makers to tackle humanitarian crises.     

R&D intensity of investment across Europe before and after the crisis

In this paper we investigate the comovements between the R&D intensity of private investment and GDP growth in different European Union (EU) areas over the period 1999–2014. Our empirical analysis shows that only core countries display a common countercyclical mechanism leading to an increased intensity of R&D over prolonged downturns. The lack of an effective countercyclical pattern of R&D intensity over the evolution of GDP growth in periphery countries makes this area highly vulnerable to persistent recessions, with potentially harmful consequences for long‐term growth. For recent EU members the evidence of acyclicality should be evaluated in the light of the catching‐up process still at work in this area. Our analysis suggests that any successful EU innovation policy should not disregard the potential divergence in R&D performance due to the dispersion of the countercyclical properties of the investment intensity in productivity enhancing activities in the different EU areas.     

The state as the investor of last resort: a comparative study of banking crises in Denmark and Sweden

This article addresses the role of the state in bailouts, i.e. government objectives and measures during banking crises. Our main question concerns the incentives and measures that governments pursue in a state of a systemic banking crisis, and why they are launched. What have been the objectives and operations when a government has decided to act as an investor of last resort and take control of commercial banks? The answer is limited to cover the financial history of two countries. The study unveils government interventions in the latest crises in Denmark and Sweden, and critically analyse which objectives justified the setting up of organisations for financial stability. The two country-cases differ in terms of historical experience, context, and time-period. We compare intrinsic principles and perceptions for government intervention, with a focus on bailouts and state-owned banks. We argue that the implementation of measures dates back to the early phases of capitalism in the 19th century i.e. is part of a historical institutional pattern. The similarities shown indicate that there is an international standard for a public–private arrangement ensuring financial stability. Our results relate to the discussion of launching effective and legitimate state policies during and after a systemic banking crisis.     

Asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on India's cross‐border trade: Evidence from global financial crisis and multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model

This paper examines the asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on India's cross‐border trade with its major trading partners: Japan, Germany, the United States, and China. We extend previous studies in two ways. First, we examine whether global financial crisis changes the asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on India's cross‐border trade. Next, we divide exchange rate volatility into quintiles and examine the effect of each quintile on cross‐border trade by using the multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (MTNARDL) model. Our findings from standard nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) indicate that the asymmetric relationship between exchange rate volatility and cross‐border trade changes as a result of global financial crisis. In addition, findings from MTNARDL indicate that in short‐run, exchange rate volatility symmetrically affects India's cross‐border trade with all sample countries whereas in long‐run it asymmetrically affects cross‐border trade. Overall, these findings are very important for policy implications and open a new dimension to exchange rate volatility and trade flows.     

The Impact of Liquidity on Debt Maturity After a Financial Crisis: Evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council Region

This article contributes to the existent literature on corporate debt maturity by studying a new channel through which firms may mitigate the effects of a major economic downturn such as the 2008 global financial crisis. More specifically, using a sample of 208 listed firms in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, we find that an increase in firms’ current ratios after the crisis is associated with an increase in long-term financing. We also find that a financially constrained firm can still access long-term financing if its current ratio after the crisis is beyond a specific threshold. Additionally, we highlight the differences in the typical drivers of debt structure between GCC countries and industries.     

Status Quo Conservatism,Placation, or Partisan Division? Analysing Citizen Attitudes Towards Financial Reform in the United States

Within the literature on financial governance a key question is why the 2008 financial crisis did not elicit a stronger regulatory reaction than it did – the ‘post-crisis stasis’ puzzle. We explore a neglected dimension of this puzzle: public attitudes toward financial regulation. Using a variety of survey data of the US public we find that there was persistent support for stronger financial regulation following the crisis, even support for radical reform in some instances, and support continued even after regulatory reform had been enacted. Despite such general sentiment, however, at nearly every stage public attitudes were highly conditional on partisan affiliation – a hugely consequential detail that meant that demand for reform was not channelled into more stringent policy but rather into a highly partisan, status quo protecting political machinery. Our analysis challenges notions of US public attitudes as either conservative in orientation or placated through modest reform, but also highlights the importance of domestic political constraints in shaping financial reform options despite majoritarian support for more robust reform.     

Is There an Image Crisis in the Spanish Vegetables?

Abstract

The Spanish horticultural sector has been adversely affected by recurring crises in the last years, showing a significant economic impact upon demand. These crises have different sources (internal and external) and origins (food safety, social, and environmental issues). However, research devoted to analyzing the nature and scope of these events and their influence on consumers’ perception is scarce. For this purpose, this research provides a conceptual framework that defines and classifies the main image crises that have affected the sector. Consequently, an exploratory study is conducted to analyze to what extent European consumers know the sector and to determine how consumer knowledge influences the Spanish product-country image. Data were analyzed using a Logit Model. Results suggest that crises have seriously affected the demand of Spanish vegetables and consumers’ perceived image. Factors affecting the sector’s image through consumer knowledge are different depending on consumers’ country-of-origin (national vs. foreign countries).