先进材料领域关键技术预见的研究

坚持创新在我国现代化建设全局中的核心地位，把科技自立自强作为国家发展的战略支撑，需要通过开展技术预见科学判断和前瞻把握先进材料领域的“卡脖子”问题、关键核心技术和未来发展趋势，回答先进材料如何保障国家经济建设、国防安全和人民群众对美好生活向往的一些关键性问题。本研究旨在综合利用无监督机器学习方法、复杂网络理论以及链路预测算法，开展先进材料领域的热点和前沿识别和技术预见，探索性识别出先进材料9个子领域的56个技术方向课题。同时组织开展德尔菲调查，依靠专家智慧，综合考量未来愿景、经济发展、国防建设和民生需求，遴选出面向2035年的10项优先发展技术方向，为党和政府科学决策服务、为推动创新驱动转型和国防安全提供重要的战略支撑。     

The Ethics of Professorial Book Selling: Morality, Money and "Black Market" Books

This study used experimental and correlational techniques to examine perceptions that university faculty hold regarding the practice of professorial selling of examination textbooks to wholesalers. Faculty members (n = 236) from 14 universities and community colleges and a wide variety of academic disciplines responded to a web-based survey. We presented hypothetical selling situations to respondents with manipulated variables consisting of solicitation status (unsolicited versus solicited) and use of money (for faculty or for student activities). Both main effects and the interaction effect were significant such that respondents perceived it to be more ethical to sell an examination book when the book was unsolicited and when the money was being used to fund student activities. The variable most correlated with faculty members' beliefs that book selling is ethical and the faculty members' self-reports of whether or not they have engaged in bookselling was how widespread the practice appeared to be on campus. About 30 percent of faculty members sold textbooks over the past year at a dollar value of about $80 per professor. About 38 percent of respondents reported they believed the practice to be generally ethical. Implications for business ethics theory, students' moral development, and advancement of on-campus codes of ethics policies are discussed along with avenues for future research.     

阶梯电价政策的居民节能意愿与节能效果评估--基于广东案例的研究

以广东省为例,基于粤东、粤西、粤北及珠三角典型地市的社会调查,统计分析阶梯电价政策对居民节能意愿及家庭用电的影响;同时运用广东省月度电力数据,构建ARIMA模型,定量研究政策实施的节能效果。研究表明,阶梯电价政策的实施对改善居民节能意愿有积极影响,并在短期内有明显的节能效果,但随着时间推移,节能效果有所减弱。为设计与完善相关政策,未来需要从节能意愿、经济激励等角度切入,提升政策的针对性、有效性。     

旅游资源调查和评价信息系统的开发

为了配合国标《旅游资源分类、调查与评价》的实施．针对旅游资源调查和评价的实际工作的需要，应用最新的地理信息技术研究开发“旅游资源调查和评价信息系统”．对于实现旅游资源调查和评价的信息化、标准化具有重大的理论与实践意义。系统通过标准信息编码来实现旅游资源数据的规范化管理，能够实现旅游资源数据共享、数据互操作，为未来在全国范围内的旅游资源比较评价提供了可能性。     

天津市企业信息资源管理状况调查与分析

在研究企业信息资源管理内容的基础上,调查了天津市企业信息资源管理现状,指出天津市信息化建设基础虽然在全国处于领先地位,但与北京、上海等信息化建设较好的省份相比还存在一定差距,如全社会对信息化工作战略地位认识较低、网络结构不尽合理、信息资源开发滞后等。因此,应采取相应策略加以改善。     

青海玉树地震应急征用与补偿情况的调查分析

现实中由于自然灾害事发突然,灾害发生初期和灾后重建时期政府主导的应急征用与补偿不可避免。文章以"4·14"玉树地震为例,在问卷法、访谈法的基础上,统计分析了地震中的应急征用与补偿情况、政策知晓情况等,建议国家应急管理部门考虑民族地区应急征用的需求和补偿的特殊性,尽早制定出相关的应急征用与补偿法律、法规,切实在公共危机管理中发挥政府作用,保障被征用者权利与权益。     

Informal Credit,Usury, or Support? A Case Study for Vietnam

The informal credit market remains an important source of finance for the poor in Vietnam. Yet, little if anything is known about the impact of informal loans on poverty and inequality, and the Vietnamese government has no policies towards the informal credit market. In the present study paper, we found that the effect of credit from friends and relatives on per capita expenditure is positive but not statistically significant. Meanwhile, the effect of credit from private moneylenders on per capita expenditure is positive and statistically significant. Borrowing from private moneylenders increases per capita expenditure of households by around 15%. Further, it reduced the poverty incidence of borrowers by around 8.5 percentage points in 2006 and significantly decreases the poverty gap index and the poverty‐severity index. Borrowing from private moneylenders also reduces expenditure inequality, albeit at a very small magnitude.     

基于EM-NB算法的网络调查缺失数据处理方法

将最大期望值算法(EM)与朴素贝叶斯算法(NB)相结合,提出EM-NB算法来填补网络调查中的缺失数据。对比基于处理后的完备数据集的分类统计结果与基于纸质调查得到的分析结果,结果显示,利用EM-NB算法处理缺失数据后的网络调查问卷与纸质调查问卷可得到一致的调查结果。这表明EM-NB算法是一种有效的处理网络调查中缺失数据的方法。     

基于内部增值观的本科教育质量调查研究（一）——本科教育质量结构性问题

基于教育质量评价的内部增值观,在借鉴美国大学生学习投入调查（NSSE）以及汉化版NSSE-China的的基础上,编制了“大学学生学习与发展调查问卷”,以内蒙古财经大学为例,通过随机抽样,开展了大学生学习性投入的调查研究.调查内容涵盖反映本科教育质量的五大可比性指标——学业挑战度、主动合作学习水平、生师互动、教育经验丰富度、校园环境支持度.通过对1541个有效数据的分析并与全国常模进行比较,对本科教育质量问题进行了诊断.     

Time Series Analysis of Repeated Surveys: The State–space Approach

Cross sectional estimates from repeated surveys form a time series { y_t }. These estimates can be viewed as the sum y _t = Y _t + e _t of two processes, { Y _t }, the population process and { e _t }, the survey error process. Serial correlations in the latter series are usually present, mainly due to sample overlap. Other sources of data such as censuses, administrative records and demographic population counts are also available. The state–space modelling approach to the analysis of repeated surveys allows combining information from different sources, incorporating benchmarking constraints in a natural way. Results from these methods seem to compare favourably with those from X-11-ARIMA in filtering out survey errors.