Do German Welfare‐to‐Work Programmes Reduce Welfare Dependency and Increase Employment?

Abstract. During the last decade, many Western economies reformed their welfare systems with the aim of activating welfare recipients by increasing welfare‐to‐work programmes (WTWP) and job‐search enforcement. We evaluate the short‐term effects of three important German WTWP implemented after a major reform in January 2005 (‘Hartz IV’), namely short training, further training with a planned duration of up to three months and public workfare programmes (‘One‐Euro‐Jobs’). Our analysis is based on a combination of a large‐scale survey and administrative data that is rich with respect to individual, household, agency level and regional information. We use this richness of the data to base the econometric evaluation on a selection‐on‐observables approach. We find that short‐term training programmes, on average, increase their participants' employment perspectives. There is also considerable effect heterogeneity across different subgroups of participants that could be exploited to improve the allocation of welfare recipients to the specific programmes and thus increase overall programme effectiveness.     

发达国家低碳政策对我国经济发展的启示

全球气候变化正吸引着越来越多的国家和地区关注环境问题.从整体来看,发达国家在发展低碳经济方面启动更早,政策工具多样,值得发展中国家深入研究和借鉴.当前我国低碳经济正处于探索阶段,尚面临许多障碍与困难,为顺应国际发展潮流,实现我国经济、社会和环境的可持续发展,在借鉴发达国家低碳经济发展经验的基础上,为我国低碳经济发展提供一些政策启示是十分必要的.     

生态经济政策问题探源研究

环境经济快速发展的迅猛态势所付出的代价令人担忧。如果环境经济政策是为环境问题量身定做的,那么环境恶化的不可逆转又从何而来?研究环境经济政策的针对性和科学性存在的问题,首先提出了生态经济政策源头存在的问题,接着从政策的针对性和科学性方面指出生态经济政策问题的理论缺陷,继而通过制度经济以及制度与行为经济的理论对生态经济政策进行探源研究,对现有生态经济政策探源研究进行补充,最后提出国外可借鉴条款。为生态经济政策经济化研究提供方向,提供改善政策效率的契机。     

国家主体功能区规划实施的几个关键问题

全国主体功能区规划已获得国务院通过并开始实施。作为一项国家空间战略布局规划,主体功能区规划的实施必将作为“十二五”时期及今后一段时期内经济社会工作的重点。为推动主体功能区规划的顺利实施,各级政府需要对主体功能区规划实施的关键问题形成共识。在主体功能区规划实施中,对主体功能区的认识、主体功能区规划实施的主体、主体功能区的划分、主体功能区的协调与调整、主体功能区的监测与评价、主体功能区政策措施落实、主体功能区的考核、主体功能区实施的组织保障、主体功能区规划实施的技术支撑、主体功能区实施的挑战与机遇等是需要重点关注的问题。     

Backcasting for sustainability: Introduction to the special issue

In this introductory paper we introduce the special issue on “Backcasting for Sustainability”. We present briefly a historical background, and position backcasting in the wider context of future studies, in which it can be related to “normative forecasting” and normative scenarios. We reflect on the diversity and variety of backcasting studies and experiments, as presented in the ten papers for this special issue. After summarizing the papers we formulate a future research agenda.     

Model for evaluating the environmental sustainability of energy projects

This article focuses on the problem of assessing the environmental sustainability of energy projects. For this purpose an original model, which is based on various indicators that measure the environmental sustainability of energy projects, has been developed. This model, so called index of environmental sustainability of energy projects (IESEP), can be used in scenario comparison, while measuring the effectiveness of the proposed alternatives. Finally, an example of how to use this model is provided by analyzing alternatives to ameliorate the environmental sustainability of a hydroelectric project. In doing so, it is possible to show the usefulness of this model when used as a decision making tool for energy planners.     

The economic and environmental performances of rural districts in Italy: Are competitiveness and sustainability compatible targets?

This paper analyses the economic performances of the rural system and the level of land sensitivity to degradation in Italy. Three indicators (district value added, share of agriculture on total product, and a composite index of land sensitivity) were used to classify 784 Italian local districts into eight performance classes. Four classes share a combination of high environmental quality (in terms of land degradation), high (or low) economic performances, and high (or low) productivity of the primary sector. The remaining four are characterised by a combination of low (and declining) environmental quality, high (or low) economic performances, and high (or low) productivity of the primary sector. The eight classes were grouped into four ‘environmental quality’ types and four ‘target performance’ categories to discriminate among high- and low-performance districts by considering twelve additional variables within a Discriminant Function Analysis (DFA). 148 high environmental performance districts (18% of total) were identified mainly across the Alps and Apennine while 314 districts (41%) were classified in the lowest performance class and concentrated in flat areas of southern Italy. The districts with high environmental performances were characterised, on average, by medium to low district value added, moderately low economic weight of the primary sector, and tourism specialisation. Districts with high economic performances and low environmental performances were characterised by high sensitivity to LD, low district value added, high share of agriculture in total product, and the lowest productivity of labour in all economic sectors. In these districts the risk of entering a downward spiral of rural poverty and environmental degradation is potentially high.     

Inflation and the fiscal limit

We use a rational expectations framework to assess the implications of rising debt in an environment with a “fiscal limit”. The fiscal limit is defined as the point where the government no longer has the ability to finance higher debt levels by increasing taxes, so either an adjustment to fiscal spending or monetary policy must occur to stabilize debt. We give households a joint probability distribution over the various policy adjustments that may occur, as well as over the timing of when the fiscal limit is hit. One policy option that stabilizes debt is a passive monetary policy, which generates a burst of inflation that devalues the existing nominal debt stock. The probability of this outcome places upward pressure on inflation expectations and poses a substantial challenge to a central bank pursuing an inflation target. The distribution of outcomes for the path of future inflation has a fat right tail, revealing that only a small set of outcomes imply dire inflationary scenarios. Avoiding these scenarios, however, requires the fiscal authority to renege on some share of future promised transfers.