浅析软件项目风险管理

软件项目的风险及其管理一直没有得到太多的重视,但它对软件项目的成功起着至关重要的作用。本文概述了软件项目的风险;在现有软件项目风险管理理论的基础上,提出了软件项目风险管理的三维理论框架;并对时间维、知识维和逻辑维进行综合探讨和分析,明确了这三维之间的关系;最后结合我国当前的社会环境和技术环境,提出了几项建议。     

基于博弈论的职业经理人道德风险规避分析

当代博弈论得到了长足的发展,许多的经济学家和管理学家都尝试运用博弈论的方法论来解释、分析和解决现实经济领域和管理领域所存在的种种问题。本文尝试运用现代博弈论来分析职业经理人的行为选择,通过分析说明企业出资人应该如何设计有效的激励机制来规避职业经理人的道德风险。     

产业国际竞争力研究进展述评

产业国际竞争力研究是当前经济领域的热点研究问题,国内外学者对其进行了大量研究,然而对其理论与分析模型的全面系统回顾却不多见。文章全面回顾了产业国际竞争力的研究现状并详细评述了其分析模型,为今后的进一步研究奠定了基础。     

Risk management by SPV partners in toll road public private partnerships

ABSTRACT

Research on risk management in Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) has largely overlooked that the Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) is made up of several project partners with different interests and objectives to manage risk. This paper makes an important contribution to this literature as it articulates SPV partners’ perceptions of how they manage risk in toll road PPPs. Our case studies show that the different skillsets of both the international and domestic partners with their sub-contractors provide opportunities for mitigating and managing risk but also pose potential problems in terms of measuring and obtaining value for money for taxpayers.     

Spatial Allocation of Capital: The Role of Risk Preferences

Abstract

This paper considers a model of spatial allocation of investment capital under uncertainty. We demonstrate that the spatial concentration of economic activity depends upon properties of risk preferences deeper than risk aversion. The degree of so-called relative prudence unambiguously decides whether or not the diversification of income risk favours the geographic dispersion of economic activity. In our framework we relate risk diversification with economic integration. Then there exists risk preferences so that spatial concentration of industry and capital is not affected by the degree of economic integration or segmentation of the regions. We also study the impact of net return regressibility upon spatial allocation.

Affectation spatiale du capital: le rôle des préférences de risques

RÉSUMÉ La présente communication se penche sur un modèle d'application spatiale du capital-investissement en présence d'incertitudes. Nous démontrons que la concentration spatiale de l'activité économique est tributaire de propriétés de préférences de risque plus profondes que l'aversion au risque. Le degré de la soi-disant prudence relative décide sans ambiguïté si la diversification des risques de revenus favorise la dispersion géographique de l'activité économique. Dans le cadre de notre étude, nous examinons la diversification du risque en fonction de l'intégration économique. Il existe également des préférences de risque, qui font en sorte que la concentration spatiale de l'industrie et du capital n'est pas affectée par le degré d'intégration économique de la segmentation des régions.

Asignación espacial de capital: la función de las preferencias de riesgo

EXTRACTO Este trabajo considera un modelo de asignación espacial de capital de inversión en situación incierta. Demostramos que la concentración espacial de actividad económica depende más profundamente de las propiedades de las preferencias de riesgo que de la aversión al riesgo. El grado de la llamada prudencia relativa decide sin ambigüedad si la diversificación del riesgo de ingresos favorece, o no, la dispersión geográfica de la actividad económica. En nuestro marco, relacionamos la diversificación del riesgo con la integración económica. Asimismo, existen preferencias de riesgos para que la concentración espacial de la industria y el capital no sean afectados por el grado de integración o segmentación económica de las regiones.

     

Estimating the impact of enterprise resource planning project management decisions on post-implementation maintenance costs: a case study using simulation modelling

Organisations often make implementation decisions with little consideration for the maintenance phase of an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system, resulting in significant recurring maintenance costs. Poor cost estimations are likely related to the lack of an appropriate framework for enterprise-wide pre-packaged software maintenance, which requires an ongoing relationship with the software vendor (Markus, M.L., Tanis, C., and Fenema, P.C., 2000 Markus, M. L., Tanis, C. and Fenema, P. C. 2000. Multisite ERP implementation. CACM, 43(4): 42–46. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. Multisite ERP implementation. CACM, 43 (4), 42–46). The end result is that critical project decisions are made with little empirical data, resulting in substantial long-term cost impacts. The product of this research is a formal dynamic simulation model that enables theory testing, scenario exploration and policy analysis. The simulation model ERPMAINT1 was developed by combining and extending existing frameworks in several research domains, and by incorporating quantitative and qualitative case study data. The ERPMAINT1 model evaluates tradeoffs between different ERP project management decisions and their impact on post-implementation total cost of ownership (TCO). Through model simulations a variety of dynamic insights were revealed that could assist ERP project managers. Major findings from the simulation show that upfront investments in mentoring and system exposure translate to long-term cost savings. The findings also indicate that in addition to customisations, add-ons have a significant impact on TCO.     

Sequential estimation of a location parameter and powers of a scale parameter from delayed observations

The problem of sequentially estimating a location parameter and powers of a scale parameter is considered in the case when the observations become available at random times. Certain classes of sequential estimation procedures are derived under an invariant balanced loss function and with the observation cost determined by a convex function of the stopping time and the number of observations up to that time.     

Corporate Strategies for Managing Climate Risks

This paper focuses on organizations and their management of climate risks. Climate risks stem from continued changes in climate means and the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. We ask whether companies also apply the usual process of corporate risk management to climate risks. In seeking to answer this question, we review several literature streams in order to set out an initial theoretical reflection. Based on this we conducted an exploratory case study with 11 electric utilities. Our results illustrate that these companies perceive climatic changes as a material issue for their business. However, management has restricted knowledge about such climatic changes and thus cannot precisely determine the potential negative impacts on business activities. As a consequence, the companies have implemented a climate risk management that does not differ from the usual process of managing other business risks. Our results further illustrate that there is some variation in how individual firms manage climate risks: While risk identification and risk assessment are equally important for all electric utilities, there are differences in how management determines the direction of the individual response to climate risks. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Disorder in the Risk Order

Abstract

This paper studies the difference in global equity portfolios allocated by the criterion of minimizing the risk by using two different risk measures, the standard deviation and the conditional value at risk. An empirical analysis is performed on a comprehensive stock exchange database. The main hypothesis of the present work is that the choice of risk measure has crucial importance in portfolio optimisation, especially in those situations when the stock markets are extremely volatile and the return distributions are non-normal. The rationale behind establishing minimum-risk portfolios is to keep track of the highest possible risk reduction benefits from international diversification.     

反向抵押贷款风险研究

反向抵押贷款作为一种金融产品,其核心问题是风险管理,但目前国内对于反向抵押款风险的研究仅仅停留在简单对国外文献的翻译上,并未结合中国实际进行具体分析.结合中国具体实际对反向抵押贷款中的三级风险作了详细分析,并对反向抵押贷款中的风险防范提了几点建议.