结构性减税与扩张政府支出的宏观经济效应

为了深入研究不同类型财政政策对宏观经济的影响效应，本文构建纳入异质性家庭和细化财税工具的新凯恩斯DSGE模型，并着重模拟分析了不同类型财政政策冲击对居民消费、私人投资、通胀率以及总产出水平的动态影响效应。研究结果表明，不同类型财税工具对宏观经济的冲击效果存在显著差异，对于税收政策，劳动收入税减税能够有助于提升消费水平和消费需求，并调节和完善消费结构；而对于政府支出政策，转移支付规模的扩张通过刺激家庭消费，引导消费内需有效提升，从而带动经济增长方式由投资驱动型向消费驱动型转变，进而推动经济高质量发展。     

Predicting credit card delinquencies: An application of deep neural networks

The objective of this paper is twofold. First, it develops a prediction system to help the credit card issuer model the credit card delinquency risk. Second, it seeks to explore the potential of deep learning (also called a deep neural network), an emerging artificial intelligence technology, in the credit risk domain. With real-life credit card data linked to 711,397 credit card holders from a large bank in Brazil, this study develops a deep neural network to evaluate the risk of credit card delinquency based on the client's personal characteristics and the spending behaviours. Compared with machine-learning algorithms of logistic regression, naive Bayes, traditional artificial neural networks, and decision trees, deep neural networks have a better overall predictive performance with the highest F scores and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The successful application of deep learning implies that artificial intelligence has great potential to support and automate credit risk assessment for financial institutions and credit bureaus.     

Risk assessment for public–private partnership projects: using a fuzzy analytic hierarchical process method and expert opinion in China

Public–private partnerships (PPP) have been widely used in China to procure public facilities and services. Complicated problems in PPP projects in China arise because of a variety of risk factors. A proper risk assessment model is needed to identify risks and provide risk response strategies for future Chinese PPP projects. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP) method provides the ability to solve complex risk assessment of PPP projects. Current risk assessment models are limited to PPP projects in specific countries and do not consider unique risks in China, especially political, economic, social, and legal risks. This paper designed a risk evaluation index system for PPP projects based on the Delphi expert investigation method, and then established an optimized risk evaluation model for PPP projects in China using the F-AHP method. The risks identified are confirmed by interviewing experts from Chinese local government departments, private enterprise, third-party intermediary consulting and regulatory agencies, and academic organizations. The results show that the risks that ranked among the top ten are closely related to China’s political and economic policies and relationships among stakeholders. It can be concluded that government authorities play a critical role in providing a favorable political, social, and economic environment and an effective institutional framework for PPP projects. Furthermore, it is also important to deal with relationships among stakeholders based on the public–private ‘win–win’ principle. This study provides risk response strategies, addressing key issues from eight aspects: an impeccable legal and regulatory framework; a central coordinating and regulating PPP authority; supportive governmental authorities; institutional capacity-building; favorable economic conditions and viability; community, partner, and moral accountability; clear division of responsibilities through contracts; and effective advisory management. These effective measures may be useful in reducing the adverse effects of risk for PPP projects in China.     

The Feasibility of the Double‐Dividend Hypothesis in a Democratic Economy

The two dividends in the double‐dividend hypothesis are assumed to be independent. This assumption can be misleading when it comes to formulating policy. I construct a model where the pollution tax rate is voted for by heterogeneous people. In addition to the revenue‐recycling effect, the equilibrium pollution tax rate depends on two opposite forces: the tax‐cutting effect and the profit effect. The two forces show that an instrument that exploits a greater revenue‐recycling effect can cause a more severe environmental deterioration, thereby resulting in the infeasibility of the hypothesis. The introduction of the interdependence between the two dividends can also mean that non‐revenue‐raising instruments are more efficient than revenue‐raising instruments.     

Integrated system of occupational safety and health and fire protection of the fire rescue brigades members

The objective of the conducted research is the identification and determination of requirements of members of fire rescue brigades during operations in the conditions of high risk in order to minimize the possibilities for injury incidence during the intervention. The research is focused on examination, determination and identification of factors affecting the increasing number of occupational injuries of members of fire rescue brigades during interventions. Hypothetical framework of the research problem consists of general hypothesis and six special hypotheses. Results suggest that almost all respondents believe that their skills and abilities are applicable in the intervention phase, but less than a half believe that their skills are applicable in prevention phase. Two-thirds of respondents stated that in their organization they have support for further education and upgrading while a half of respondents stated that they need education concerning identification, assessment and management of risks that can lead to emergency situations.     

Environmental regulations in private and mixed duopolies: Taxes on emissions versus green R&D subsidies

In this article, we compare two kinds of environmental regulations—emissions taxes and green R&D subsidies—in private and mixed-duopoly markets in the presence of R&D spillovers. We show that a green R&D subsidy is better (worse) than an emissions tax when the green R&D is efficient (inefficient), irrespective of R&D spillovers, whereas the existence of a publicly owned firm encourages the government to adopt a subsidy policy. We also show that the optimal policy choice depends on R&D efficiency and spillovers. In particular, when green R&D is inefficient and the spillover rate is low (high), the government should choose an emissions tax and (not) privatize the state-owned firm. When green R&D is efficient, however, an R&D subsidy is better, but a privatization policy is not desirable for society, irrespective of spillovers.     

Teamwork skill assessment: Development of a measure for academia

Popular teamwork assessments have been strongly criticized on the grounds of poor psychometric properties and their disconnect with conceptual models of teamwork. These issues raise concerns with respect to our ability to evaluate efforts devoted to advancing teamwork in academia. We report the development of a teamwork assessment that builds on empirically supported conceptualizations of team processes. Two studies were conducted to test and to cross-validate the psychometrics of the resulting measure. In the discussion section, we address the implications of our findings for conceptual models of teamwork and provide guidelines for using the measure in business education.     

科学、价值与判断在环境影响评估架构中之整合

公共政策研拟，尤其是环境影响评估，不仅牵涉技术性科学层面，同时涵盖社会性价值评估与政策性决策判断。旨在探讨如何将科学、价值与判断等因素合理融合于环境影响评估作业过程中，并据此研拟一环境影响评估架构，作为中国台湾地区环保部门开发案审核依据之参考。本文所研拟之环境影响评估架构的理论基础包括社会选择理论、社会判断理论及多属性评估方法。通过社会选择理论分析环境政策制定的机制；通过社会判断理论解释科学与价值如何整合于政策制定及其可行性中；而通过多属性评估方法建立开发案评选的集体决策技术。以山坡地开发为例说明此架构在实践中的应用。     

Dynamic management of aircraft stand allocation

This paper aimed to present an original approach for solving the aircraft stand allocation (SA) problem dynamically when due to operational disturbances, the planned allocation cannot be accomplished. The proposed Multiple-criteria Dynamic Stand Allocation (MDSA) method uses fuzzy logic to support decision-making under uncertainty. The MDSA method provides effective solutions in a short time, necessary for traffic management in case of delays, emergency, and untypical cases. It considers partially conflicting points of view of different airport users (airport managers, air traffic controllers, airlines, handling agents, and passengers) and may significantly support managers on the SA problem. The approach proposed can also be used for creating an initial SA plan for a considerable number of aircraft.     

Pure rent taxation and allocation of capital in a two-sector open economy: A long-run analysis

In this paper, the long-run incidence of a tax on pure rent is analyzed in an OLG two-sector small open economy, in which one sector produces a capital good and one sector a consumer good. Contrary to what is obtained in a one-sector closed economy, a land rent tax does not necessarily foster nonhumam wealth accumulation and capital formation. The accommodating scheme for the government budget plays a crucial role for the effects of pure rent taxation. A rent tax stimulates nonhuman wealth if distortionary taxes on wealth or on income from nonland inputs are alleviated. The mechanism spurring capital formation is brought into action, instead, only when the rent tax is matched by a fall in capital taxation or, if the capital sector is capital intensive, by an increase in government spending on the capital good.