我国纺织服装业出口退税政策实证检验

文章以我国传统劳动密集型产业的代表-纺织服装业为研究对象,采用2004年1月至2010年8月的样本数据,对该产业出口退税率变动和月度贸易顺差增长率进行格兰杰因果检验,发现我国纺织服装业出口退税政策失效。基于实证结果进一步分析原因后提出了政策建议,认为转变出口退税政策的目标为结构调整、提高产业附加值,这不仅是保证今后我国出口退税政策有效实施的关键,而且是推动纺织服装产业升级的必要之举。     

海南省旅游收入与经济增长的关联度分析

根据海南省相关资料分析发现:旅游收入、入境旅游人次与GDP之间存在正向的长期均衡关系和双向的因果关系,旅游收入对经济增长的拉动作用低于入境旅游人次对经济增长的拉动作用。政府应充分发挥其市场导向作用,加大海陆空交通、港口等基础设施方面的建设,进一步加强对海南省物流、金融、电信等服务业的支持力度和规范管理,建立建全旅游市场经营的行业协会制度;企业应以社会和自然承载力为依据开发新的旅游产品,并融入文化要素,建立旅游产品品牌;同时,旅游企业要加强自身管理和市场竞争力的培育,吸纳并培养高层次的旅游管理人才。     

Investigating stationarity in tourist arrivals to India using panel KPSS with sharp drifts and smooth breaks

In the study, we applied panel-based stationary test that incorporates sharp as well as smooth breaks to investigate the non-stationarity of long-run tourists’ arrivals to India from major tourists’ source countries for the period 1981–2012. Results from the overall panel data provided significant evidence to support the stationarity hypothesis. However, when tourist arrivals from major source countries are considered, results indicate that tourist arrivals in India from the UK, Canada, Australia, Singapore, and Nepal were non-stationary, suggesting that tourists from these countries are all affected by economic conditions with the greatest extent. The results of the study have important policy implication for the tourist authority of India as well as business sectors in the hospitality industry for understanding and predicting market condition.     

Dynamic causality testing for EKC hypothesis,pollution haven hypothesis and international trade in India

This study examines the causality relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth (GDP) and CO₂ emissions along with the level of trade (exports and imports) taking place in India. The study uses data obtained from World Development Indicators (WDI) of World Bank Group for the period 1982–2013. The study employed the dynamic multivariate Toda-Yamamoto (TY) approach that uses the modified Wald (MWALD) test. Among the major findings of the study are: the existence of both Pollution Haven Hypothesis and Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in India. The other findings of the study are: FDI is causing exports; exports are causing imports; imports are causing CO₂ emissions; and finally CO₂ emissions and GDP are causing each other. This finding concludes mainly two things. First, India imports more of pollution-intensive manufactured goods. Second, FDI is causing GDP in India but through CO₂ emissions.     

GMM estimation of panel data models with time-varying slope coefficients

A difference/system generalized method of moments (GMM) model that imposes time-constant coefficients is common in empirical studies using panel data. However, a rejection by the Sargan–Hansen test is sometimes a serious concern for researchers. We highlight the fact that the Sargan–Hansen test for GMM estimators applied to panel data is a joint test of valid orthogonality conditions and coefficient stability over time. A possible reason for a rejection is therefore that the slope coefficients vary over time. One solution is to estimate an empirical model in which the coefficients are time specific. We apply this solution to the system GMM estimator of simple nondynamic Cobb–Douglas production functions for a selection of Swedish industries and find that relaxing the assumption of constant slope coefficients results in more satisfactory outcomes of the Sargan–Hansen test.     

P2P Loans and bank loans,the chicken and the egg,what causes what?: further evidence from a bootstrap panel granger causality test

This study attempts to re-investigate the causal link between bank loans and Peer-to-Peer (P2P) loans from China using data sets from eight areas (i.e., Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Hubei, Guangdong and Sichuan) over 2014M1-2016M4. We apply a bootstrap panel causality analysis that considers both cross-dependency and heterogeneity across cities. The empirical results indicate a unidirectional Granger causality running from P2P loans to bank loans for Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Shandong; feedback between P2P loans and bank loads for Jiangsu only and independence for the other three areas (i.e. Hubei, Guangdong and Sichuan).     

财政分权对我国城市房价的影响——以杭州市为例

2016年,中国的房地产市场依旧火热,房价增长迅速,热点频出,当然,房价的疯狂上涨也带来了很多难以解决的问题。研究财政分权,土地财政和房地产价格三者之间的关联,并通过对杭州市的相关数据进行实证分析,运用格兰杰检验分析杭州市的财政分权,土地财政和房地产价格,得出如下结论：财政分权使地方政府寻求更多的收入来源,加剧了地方政府对房地产业的扶持,并且导致了土地财政,从而正面影响了房地产价格。     

山西省民间金融与经济增长的因果关系检验

在金融发展日益昌盛的情况下,通过对山西省及北京市1999——2015年间金融发展与经济增长的数据研究,分析了山西省民间金融的发展现状。利用Granger因果关系检验,检验了山西省民间金融与经济增长之间的关系,结果显示山西省的民间金融发展不是经济增长的原因,但是山西省的经济增长是民间金融发展的原因。     

我国国债利率效应及其实证分析

国债的利率效应是衡量政府政策效果的重要指标.本文运用OLS方法和Granger-Causality检验,对我国中长期国债的利率效应进行了研究.结果表明:我国中长期国债对市场利率具有微妙的正面效应,长期国债利率效应相对显著;我国国债对市场利率的托宾效应并不显著,政府投资可能对私人投资产生挤出效应.研究政府债务与市场利率之间的关系,对于政府行为与市场机制关系的理论研究以及避免政策失效具有重要意义.     

中国资本市场影响消费水平的实证检验

美国金融危机给世界经济带来巨大约冲击,中国资本市场却严重滞后于实体经济。对中国资本市场变化对消费水平的影响进行实证分析,结果显示：殷市适度上涨,有利亍消费扩张,不能否定资本市场的积极因素,资本市场的发展有助亍社会保障体系约健全。