基于居民城际出行网络的兰州都市圈交通一体化研究

“十四五”时期,甘肃省规划建设以兰州市为核心及其邻近市域为腹地的兰州都市圈。随着区域交通设施的快速建设布局,兰州都市圈对外交通格局逐渐形成。基于都市圈内人口迁徙大数据,研究城市间交通出行现状,针对交通设施一体化布局进行优化。基于不同时段和不同交通方式构建的居民城际出行网络特征结果表明：区域居民出行网络总体呈现以兰州为核心的“放射形”格局,兰州同腹地城市线路的出行规模大且稳定,而腹地城市间联系较弱;特殊节假日和“春运”相较于日常时段出行强度增加,但仍以日常大规模线路为主;公路交通为区域出行的主要方式,普速铁路已不满足城际快速出行的需要,高速铁路促进城际间大规模出行。基于现状特征,分别从航空、铁路、公路三种交通方式提出兰州都市圈交通一体化优化策略,促进区域协同发展。     

唐山市交通运行现状分析与治理对策研究

唐山城市交通综合治理方案对于促进唐山市城市发展建设具有重要意义,采用对比分析法和案例分析法进行研究。首先对比唐山、石家庄、北京、香港四座城市的交通出行需求和交通设施供给数据指标,分析总结唐山城市交通系统特征;接着,对比分析唐山城市交通系统运行现状,探究唐山城市交通问题的形成机理;最后,针对唐山市交通系统现有问题,借鉴国内外其他地区或城市的成功经验,提出城市交通治理的对策建议。     

交通建设项目社会经济环境影响评价指标体系研究

根据交通建设项目社会经济环境影响评价的内涵,从社会环境、经济环境、美学及历史学环境三方面设置指标体系,并探讨了指标的表达方式和估算方法。     

Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Eurozone: A Lack of Forward Guidance?

From July to December 2011, the three-month EURIBOR-OIS and EURIBOR-Repo spreads quadrupled and reached 100 basis points due to a stabilization of the EURIBOR and a decrease in the overnight index swap (OIS) and Repo. Using a specific monetary policy announcements and financial indicators database, we find that the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) unconventional measures did not systematically have a calming effect: Asset buyout announcements decreased market strains, whereas interest rates and liquidity provision announcements did not. Moreover, liquidity provision seems to have a stressing effect. Our findings are consistent with the theoretical underpinnings according to which forward guidance crucially determines the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies.     

基于VAR模型的人民币有效汇率就业效应

基于向量自回归模型,对人民币实际有效汇率的就业效应进行实证分析,结果表明就业量和人民币实际有效汇率之间存在长期均衡关系,长期而言人民币实际有效汇率上升1%就业量将下降0.1821%。因此,人民币实际有效汇率的波动率对就业量仅存在微弱的负面影响。     

Fiscal policy,government debt,and economic growth in the Kaleckian model of growth and distribution

This article presents the Kaleckian model of growth and distribution that sets a budget deficit ratio as an indicator of fiscal policy and examines the short- and long-run effects of an increase in budget deficits and a rise in income tax rates on the economy. The key short-run outcomes are as follows. First, expanded budget deficits have a positive effect on the rate of capacity utilization. Second, the tax rate for wage income does not affect the rate of capacity utilization, whereas the tax rate for capital income has a favorable impact on it. This result implies that raising the tax rate for capital income can be an important policy instrument for stimulating the economy. Third, we find that the economy exhibits a wage-led aggregate demand in the short run. The main long-run results are as follows. First, the effect of expanded budget deficits on the growth rate is ambiguous, since a higher debt burden negatively influences the rate of capacity utilization and hence economic growth, despite the increase in demand caused by government borrowing. A higher budget deficit ratio thus raises the growth rate only if a certain condition is satisfied. Second, the tax rate for capital income has a positive impact on the growth rate. Third, the economy shows a wage-led growth in the long run.     

The Application of Sensitivity Analysis on Comprehensive Transportation Evaluation

Comprehensive transportation evaluation objects using multi-objective decision method is a process of choosing the best one from a few objects through calculating, analyzing, and comparing the index system. The result may be different because of the difference of the index weight and index value. Therefore, sensitivity analysis should be one of the necessary parts of the decision-making. It is desired to give the index with higher sensitivity and its varying scope to control the index strictly during the execution process. This paper derives transfer index weight, which changes the rank evaluation order of the projects. Meanwhile, a simple, effective and practical method based on sensitivity district and sensitivity matrix is proposed for the sensitivity analysis of decision-making. As an example, the index sensitivity in decision-making of some provinces comprehensive transportation objects, and their influence on the final decision are discussed.     

Mortgage product diversity: responding to consumer demand or protecting lender profit? An asymmetric panel analysis

This article explores determinants of mortgage product diversity for owner-occupied and investment loans in the Australian housing mortgage market. From 2001 to 2012, 65 lenders introduced 1220 mortgage products in Australia. We examine whether the product proliferation was a result of consumer demand or a response to pressure to lower lending rates. We find that consumer demand for mortgages does not have a significant relationship with the number of mortgage products, but that decreases in the policy interest rate are highly significant as an explanatory variable for product proliferation. Such behaviour is consistent with information obfuscation, reducing the ease with which consumers can compare lending rates. Further, the relationship between mortgage products offered and the policy interest rate is asymmetric: decreases in the cash rate are associated with increased mortgage products offered, but increases in the cash rate have a more muted effect on decreasing the number of products.     

基于空间计量模型的数字交通与经济耦合协调发展机理

数字交通作为融合信息技术与互联网等数字化手段的新型交通形态,在提升运输效率和降低运输成本方面发挥关键作用的同时,对现代化经济的高质量发展也产生重要影响.基于耦合协调度模型和空间计量模型,建立数字交通与经济发展的耦合关系综合测度模型,并以山东省为例,探究要素间的空间作用关系.结果表明,数字交通与经济发展间的耦合关系正变得日益紧密.空间分析结果进一步表明,数字交通在空间上对经济增长有着积极的辐射效应,数字交通的发展对于促进自身和其他空间单元经济增长具有显著的正向影响.相关研究结果能够为政府部门推动数字交通发展和制定相应经济政策提供有力参考依据.     

物流运输产品市场效果的模糊综合评价

对影响客户选择物流运输产品的因素进行了分析,在此基础上运用模糊综合评价法对物流企业运输产品的市场效果进行评价。