城投债对地区产能过剩的影响：促进还是抑制*

在构建城投债影响产能过剩的理论基础上,以我国2004-2016年地级市面板数据为样本,本文检验了城投债影响产能过剩的具体效应和相关机制。研究发现：城投债与地区产能过剩之间呈现U型关系;其中城投债对产能过剩的影响在中西部地区、南方地区、大城市和金融危机爆发后更为显著;机制检验表明,地方政府借助城投债压低工业用地价格和投资交通基础设施会加剧产能过剩,且压低工业用地价格带来的效应更为严重。因此,本文从适度控制债务规模、改善体制激励措施和完善要素定价机制等方面提出相应建议。     

Can intertemporal choice experiments elicit time preferences for consumption?

The paper considers what can be inferred about experimental subjects’ time preferences for consumption from responses to laboratory tasks involving tradeoffs between sums of money at different dates, if subjects can reschedule consumption spending relative to income in external capital markets. It distinguishes three approaches identifiable in the literature: the straightforward view; the separation view; and the censored data view. It shows that none of these is fully satisfactory and discusses the resulting implications for intertemporal decision-making experiments. JEL Classification C90, C91, D90, D91, D11, D12     

Signaling quality with increased incentives

Previous work on informed-principal problems with moral hazard suggested that the principal should signal project quality by retaining a larger share of the project and hence lowering incentives for the agent. We show that this view is incomplete. If project quality and effort are complements and effort is more valuable for high-quality projects, a principal with a high-quality project may separate from a principal with a low-quality project by increasing incentives for the agent. This holds with a risk-neutral agent who is protected by limited liability as well as with a risk-averse agent and unlimited liability. A dynamic version of our model in which the agent learns project quality in later periods provides an explanation for the use of initially reduced royalty rates in business-format franchising contracts.     

Optimal distribution of the injured in a multi-type transportation network with damage-dependent travel times: Two metaheuristic approaches

We study a location-allocation-routing problem for distribution of the injured in a disaster response scenario, considering a three-type transportation network with separate links. A circle-based approach to estimate the impacts of the disaster is presented. After formulating relations for computing the percentage of the injured, the destruction percentage and the damage-dependent travel times, the problem is formulated as an integer nonlinear program. We utilize a genetic algorithm and a discrete version of the imperialist competitive algorithm for solving large problems. An empirical study focused on earthquakes in Tabriz, Iran, illustrates applicability of the proposed model and performance of the proposed algorithms.     

单车场无时间窗甩挂运输车辆调度的启发式算法

考虑了牵引车空驶、带空挂车行驶和带重挂车行驶所引起的成本差异,定义了牵引车运行成本的概念,将总运行成本最小作为调度方案优劣的判别指标,并同时考虑牵引车数量最少。将牵引任务分为四种类型,定义了任务链、虚拟任务、链内交叉和链间交叉的概念,提出了一种求解该类单车场甩挂运输车辆调度无时间窗约束的启发式算法,包括初始调运方案、链内优化、空车调运交叉、牵引车数量优化和链间交叉。最后给出了仿真算例,算法优化后的最终方案与初始方案相比,牵引车数量减少,总运行成本降低,验证了算法的有效性和可行性。     

Finite Dimensional Affine Realisations of HJM Models in Terms of Forward Rates and Yields

Finite dimensional Markovian HJM term structure models provide ideal settings for the study of term structure dynamics and interest rate derivatives where the flexibility of the HJM framework and the tractability of Markovian models coexist. Consequently, these models became the focus of a series of papers including Carverhill (1994), Ritchken and Sankarasubramanian (1995), Bhar and Chiarella (1997), Inui and Kijima (1998), de Jong and Santa-Clara (1999), Björk and Svensson (2001) and Chiarella and Kwon (2001a). However, these models usually required the introduction of a large number of state variables which, at first sight, did not appear to have clear links to the market observed quantities, and the explicit realisations of the forward rate curve in terms of the state variables were unclear. In this paper, it is shown that the forward rate curves for these models are affine functions of the state variables, and conversely that the state variables in these models can be expressed as affine functions of a finite number of forward rates or yields. This property is useful, for example, in the estimation of model parameters. The paper also provides explicit formulae for the bond prices in terms of the state variables that generalise the formulae given in Inui and Kijima (1998), and applies the framework to obtain affine representations for a number of popular interest rate models.     

What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent–price ratio

We apply the dynamic Gordon growth model to the housing market in 23 US metropolitan areas, the four Census regions, and the nation from 1975 to 2007. The model allows the rent–price ratio at each date to be split into the expected present discounted values of rent growth, real interest rates, and a housing premium over real rates. We show that housing premia are variable and forecastable and account for a significant fraction of rent–price ratio volatility at the national and local levels, and that covariances among the three components damp fluctuations in rent–price ratios. Thus, explanations of house-price dynamics that focus only on interest rate movements and ignore these covariances can be misleading. These results are similar to those found for stocks and bonds.     

运输管理信息系统的研究与设计

本文论述了运输管理信息系统的设计目标以及系统的功能结构，结合具体的应用背景。提出了运输管理信息系统的解决方案，并且以模块划分的方式对于系统功能的实现进行了探讨，介绍了系统的主要特点。     

路企直通运输联合调度模式研究

路局调度所是直通运输方案实施者,是路企直通运输这一新的组织模式效率和效益的源头。为促进直通运输步入有序化、正常化、规范化,需要加强联合调度模式研究,创新信息整合、流程再造、作业组织、联劳协作、调度指挥等,确保直通运输组织稳中求进,顺利实施。     

交通建设项目社会经济环境影响评价指标体系研究

根据交通建设项目社会经济环境影响评价的内涵,从社会环境、经济环境、美学及历史学环境三方面设置指标体系,并探讨了指标的表达方式和估算方法。