金融压力、所有制结构与银行风险承担——基于中国影子银行活动的实证研究*

2008年金融危机之后，监测与防范系统性金融风险、维护金融稳定成为各国监管机构的工作重点。本文构建了一个反映我国系统性金融风险的中国金融压力指数（FSIC）。基于此，本文研究不同所有制结构的商业银行将如何调整影子银行业务以应对系统性金融风险。实证结果表明，当金融压力上升时，相较于国有银行，非国有银行的风险承担水平显著上升。进一步研究发现，这一差异与两类银行对影子银行这一风险业务的调整有关。当金融压力上升时，国有银行会显著减少影子银行业务，而非国有银行的影子银行业务不会减少。本文提出了国有银行的双重职能这一观点来解释实证研究的发现。本文的研究结论对于指导我国金融市场化改革和防范系统性金融风险具有重要启示。     

Too-Big-To-Fail: Why Megabanks Have Not Become Smaller Since the Global Financial Crisis?

ABSTRACT

More than ten years after the global financial crisis, what has happened to the ‘too-big-to-fail’ (TBTF) banks whose reckless behavior was among its preconditions, but which received public support and guarantees in the midst of that crisis? Insofar as this too-big-to-fail status helped create the crisis and then imposed costs on the rest of society, we would expect these banks to have shrunk. We investigate the evolution of 31 global-TBTF banks and find that their overall size has hardly recorded any substantial change. However, there is no sense of urgency in the flourishing post-crisis literature on TBTF banks about the need to contain their size; the prevalent view therein is that if properly regulated, the risks that arise from a financial system dominated by TBTF banks are manageable. This view rests on the same overly narrow theoretical underpinnings whose flaws were exposed in the crisis. We argue that too-big-to-fail banking is embedded in a set of self-reinforcing policies—consolidation, balance-sheet support through quantitative easing, favorable regulations, bank lobbying, and geo-economic and geo-political considerations—which explain why these banks have not shrunk and why they remain a threat to financial stability, well after the lessons of the crisis should have been learned.     

宏观审慎政策、经济周期与银行风险承担*

本文基于中国227家商业银行2005－2016年非平衡面板数据，实证检验中国宏观审慎政策实施对于银行风险承担的影响。结果表明：宏观审慎政策增强会在一定程度上抑制银行风险承担，而且这种显著的负向关系并不随着银行风险代理变量、经营辐射范围以及是否有外资入股等条件的改变而发生变化。经济周期会对宏观审慎政策的有效性产生非对称性影响，即相比在经济上行时期，在经济下行时期的宏观审慎政策对银行风险承担的抑制作用更强且更为显著。就可能的影响机制而言，本文发现宏观审慎政策通过提高银行盈利能力，从而降低银行风险承担。       

双选信道下一种基于混沌交织的FBMC系统

高速移动环境下，无线信道具有时频双选性衰落的特性，使得滤波器组多载波(Filter Bank Multi-carrier，FBMC)系统产生长突发差错。将一种基于Baker映射的混沌交织算法应用在滤波器组多载波系统中，根据混沌密钥对发送数据进行分块和重新排列，按照Baker映射规则完成数据交织。此方法可以将长突发差错变为单突发差错，结合卷积编码能有效地纠正双选信道产生的长突发差错。仿真结果表明，在双选择信道中，基于混沌交织的滤波器组多载波系统误比特率性能优于传统基于块交织的滤波器组多载波系统。     

NOMINAL GDP TARGETING AND CENTRAL BANK CONSERVATIVENESS

In the literature on monetary economics, there is the ‘inflationary bias’ result which predicts that the rate of inflation will be biased towards a higher level under discretionary monetary policy than under a rule‐based policy regime. It is established that a credible nominal target can eliminate this ‘inflationary bias’. In this paper, we examine the case of nominal GDP targeting, which is a rule‐based monetary regime. Depending on the degree of conservativeness by the central bank, we show in a stylized model the choice of different combination of inflation and real GDP targets can still result in an ‘inflationary bias’, and there also exists the possibility of a ‘dis‐inflationary bias’.     

The Coordination Role of Stress Tests in Bank Risk‐Taking

We examine whether stress tests distort banks' risk‐taking decisions. We study a model in which a regulator may choose to rescue banks in the event of concurrent bank failures. Our analysis reveals a novel coordination role of stress tests. Disclosure of stress‐test results informs banks of the failure likelihood of other banks, which can reduce welfare by facilitating banks' coordination in risk‐taking. However, conducting stress tests also enables the regulator to more effectively intervene banks, coordinating them preemptively into taking lower risks. We find that, if the regulator has a strong incentive to bail out, stress tests improve welfare, whereas if the regulator's incentive to bail out is weak, stress tests impair welfare.     

不同利率对我国上市银行信用风险的影响

对我国16家上市银行进行的实证检验表明：3个月同业拆借利率与银行信用风险显著正相关，人民币5年期基准存款利率与银行信用风险的关系不确定，人民币1年期基准存款利率与银行信用风险显著正相关，贷款利息收入占贷款比例与银行信用风险显著负相关。     

第三方支付相关基础法律问题探讨

第三方支付不是单纯的货币转移支付,而是与商业交易密切相关。互联网支付是典型的"担保支付",第三方为付款人的货币支付和收款人的货物交付进行了担保,有效保证了交易合同的全面履行,付款人支付的货币资金具有反担保保证金性质;预付卡支付和银行卡收单支付都是委托代理支付,预付卡支付第三方收到付款人的货币资金属于保管行为。     

Labor Unions and Forms of Corporate Liquidity

We examine how the presence of labor unions affects a firm's choice of corporate liquidity between bank lines of credit and corporate cash holdings. We find that firms in industries with higher unionization rates hold a higher fraction of corporate liquidity in the form of bank lines of credit. We divide the firms into sub‐groups and find that this positive relationship holds for firms that are not in a state with right‐to‐work legislation and for firms that are financially constrained. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that a firm chooses the forms of corporate liquidity to take advantage of the bargaining benefits associated with bank lines of credit.     

Anticipating independence,no premonition of partition. The lessons of bank branch expansion on the Indian subcontinent, 1939 to 1946

We examine investment in bank branches on the Indian subcontinent in 1939 and 1946. In 1947, the states of India and Pakistan were created from the erstwhile colony of British India. Partition was destabilizing to both economies. We use branch expansion as a proxy for entrepreneur's pre‐partition predictions of the future of these regions. Our results indicate there were no premonitions of economic dislocation. Banks tended to deepen their presence in regions which were already developed. But controlling for the level of 1931 development, branch placement was highest in exactly those regions, Bengal and the Punjab, which were to experience the greatest negative consequences from political division. After 1947, multiple banks failed; most failing banks were registered in the Punjab or Bengal region. In United India, businessmen saw as much promise in regions which were to become Pakistan as in regions which were to become India. After partition, the Pakistan regions were immediately more economically fragile. This event provides a general lesson. Economic integration had intensified over the years of British rule. The abrupt stop to integration harmed especially the smaller, less diversified region. Politicians should be wary of politically dividing regions which have evolved to function as integrated economic units.