我国流动性过剩的实证分析

本文从货币供求角度对我国流动性过剩问题进行实证分析.首先,通过构建我国广义货币需求模型,对我国广义货币需求量进行拟合,发现从2005年起我国明显出现流动性过剩问题.然后,从货币供求两个方面分析了我国流动性过剩产生的原因,外汇占款快速增长是导致广义货币供给过多的主要原因,而存款利率偏低、预期通货膨胀率提高和资本市场快速发展等都减少了广义货币需求.最后,从货币供求两方面分别提出解决我国流动性过剩的办法,除此之外,还可以有效利用流动性过剩来优化经济结构.     

HSK与对外汉语教学课程内容的调整

HSK是为了测试母语为非汉语的人所掌握的汉语水平而设立的国家级标准化考试,它日益为人们所重视,但对外汉语教学的课程不能为HSK考试而设立,应该着眼于学生的汉语实际应用。HSK与教学之间应该是相辅相成的关系,可以根据HSK对教学内容作适当调整。     

Why is Inflation in China a Monetary Phenomenon？

This paper proposes that inflation in China during the post‐reform era (1978 onwards) is always a monetary phenomenon. We construct a multivariate dynamic model based on Friedman's quantity theory of money and use the standard Granger causality test to show that money growth contains significant predictive power for inflation during the underlying period. The finding is robust to alternative measures of monetary aggregates and both closed and open economy frameworks. The baseline finding of the paper indicates that quantitative tools remain the most important policy instruments for China to manage its inflation effectively.     

改善民生：保障人的生存与发展的需要

改善民生就是为了满足人的生存与发展的需要。当前,我国仍然存在对人的生存与发展条件保障不足这一问题。劳动是保障人的生存与发展需要的唯一途径,唯有劳动才能创造社会价值。文章认为,人人必须参加劳动,才能创造社会财富来满足人的生存与发展的需要。重视劳动价值有助于促进收入分配的公平和保障最广大人民群众的生存与发展的需要,这是解决民生问题的前提。保障人的生存和发展应该做到：有劳动能力的每一个人都要直接参加生产劳动,并且因此实现自身的劳动价值;政府和社会要努力实现让每一个有劳动能力的人都能够就业;坚持生产资料公有制原则,让每一个劳动者充分享受他的劳动价值;弱化资本的功能,以劳动为杠杆,推动社会发展和收入分配的公平性。     

主客观价值统一的可能途径及经济学解释

在市场经济条件下,商品价格是供需双方价值的统一,也是主客观价值的统二。商品的客观价值是劳动过程中价值生成和转移与劳动对象禀赋度的统一。衡量商品价值的尺度是历史上的人而不是商品本身。一定的劳动量不一定等于一定的价值量,而一定的价值量不等于一定的商品的客观价值量,它还取决于劳动对象禀赋度。价值与使用价值是同一过程不同阶段表现形式。     

Bilateral Trade Balances: Evidence from Malaysia*

This study examines the impacts of real exchange rates on the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia with the USA, Japan and Singapore. The results for the long‐run cointegrating vectors show that depreciation or devaluation of real exchange rates will improve bilateral trade balances. In the short run, there is some evidence of the J‐curve phenomenon. Changes in real money supply contribute greatly to changes in real exchange rates. Generally, changes in real exchange rates contribute significantly to changes in bilateral trade balances. Monetary policy can be used to influence bilateral trade balances.     

Corporate Venture Capital and Its Contribution to Intermediate Goods Firms in South Korea*

Set by government, corporate, financial and individual sources, venture capitalists in Korea have adapted themselves to the new and uncertain venture capital market through stand‐alone and syndicated investments. The present study raises questions about whether various financial sources contributed differentially to their portfolio firms during the market boom of 2000. Results show that no single capital source showed better performance, and only corporate venture capitalists contributed to intermediate goods firms. The latter finding might reflect the unique ability of corporate venture capitalists to use vertical value‐chain linkages for their investments.     

钢铁工业发展周期及中国钢产量饱和点预测

通过对美国、日本钢铁工业发展阶段的分析和产量曲线拟合,总结钢铁工业发展规律,验证产业生命周期理论的可行性。基于目前我国钢铁工业处于成长期向成熟期过渡阶段的判断,使用产业生命周期曲线拟合预测,得到中国粗钢产量预计在2020年前后达到饱和,饱和值水平约7.7~8.5亿吨。     

生产性服务业支撑制造业价值链升级的实证研究

在后危机时代,制造业应通过转型升级培育持续竞争力。制造业转型升级的重要内容之一是价值链升级。本文通过研究发现,生产性服务业与制造业价值链升级间的相关程度明显。在此基础上,以中国为样本,通过实证分析发现,当前对支撑中国制造业价值链升级贡献较大的生产性服务业是交通运输、仓储及邮政业和批发零售业这些传统服务行业,从而进一步指出,信息传输计算机服务业、金融业和科学研究技术服务业等现代服务业,应是将来发挥支撑制造业价值链升级作用的重点行业。