最大一天洪量与最大24小时洪量之若干问题探讨

结合工程实际对最大一天洪量与最大24小时洪量的主要影响因素进行了分析探讨,论证了工程设计洪水计算过程中计算数值的合理优化问题为日后类似工程积累资料。     

Thailand-Japan＇s Volume of Trade Influencing on Socio-economic and Well-Being Development Using Maximum Entropy Bootstrap

This paper is preliminary information on some empirical findings based on an analysis of Thailand＇s macroeconomic data. The purpose of the study is to quantify social-economic well-being development with special emphasis on poverty. The maximum entropy bootstrap was presented that did not require the property of stationarity. Moreover, the methodology was stratified both the ergodic theorem and the central limit theorem. Thailand＇s GINI index and Thailand-Japan＇s volume of trade data cover the 14-year period from 1998 to 2011. There is a statistically significant negative non-linear relationship between endogenous Thailand＇s GINI index and exogenous Thailand-Japan＇s volume of trade. The results confirmed that every lagged one percent increase in Thailand-Japan＇s volume of trade influenced by a decrease of Thailand＇s GINI index coefficient 0.039 percent with the asymmetric around 0-almost closed to range condition -0.034824348 at 2.5%.     

箱式变电所在住宅小区中设计应注意的问题

箱式变电所以其显著优点,在住宅小区建设（改造）中得到推广应用。文章以南宁市某住宅小区为例,论述箱式变电所设计中应注意的问题。     

Price Common Volatility or Volume Common Volatility? Evidence from Taiwan's Exchange Rate and Stock Markets

This paper investigates the common volatility structure of stock and exchange rate markets of Taiwan. The two markets are often linked together and we are interested in knowing whether price or volume is a good proxy to pursue this issue. We claim that Taiwanese government interventions distort the timing of conventional price volatility clustering in the two markets. The unrestricted trading volumes reveal more information regarding the market than price. We find that common volatility does exist in the stock and exchange markets and this fact is uncovered more easily by using trading volume than by using prices.     

日本对华直接投资对中日贸易的影响

20世纪90年代以来，日本对华直接投资中对制造业投资的比重不断提高，因而其对中日贸易关系的影响也越来越大。日本对华直接投资对中日贸易规模的影响主要通过替代效应、诱发效应、逆出口效应、贸易转向效应表现出来。总体说来，日本对华直接投资对中日贸易的替代效应很小，而对中日贸易发展的推动作用则非常明显．日本对华直接投资对中日贸易商品结构也产生了极为重要的影响，具体表现为日本对华出口的工业制成品的比重不断降低，而各种关键零部件和生产设备的比重不断提高：中国对日出口中工业品的比重、特别是工业制成品的比重则逐步提高。     

Dual long-memory, structural breaks and the link between turnover and the range-based volatility

This paper investigates the issue of temporal ordering of the range-based volatility and turnover volume in the Korean market for the period 1995–2005. We examine the dynamics of the two variables and their respective uncertainties using a bivariate dual long-memory model. We distinguish volume trading before the Asia financial crisis from trading after the crisis. We find that the apparent long-memory in the variables is quite resistant to the presence of breaks. However, when we take into account structural breaks the order of integration of the conditional variance series decreases considerably. Moreover, the impact of foreign volume on volatility is negative in the pre-crisis period but turns to positive after the crisis. This result is consistent with the view that foreign purchases tend to lower volatility in emerging markets—especially in the first few years after market liberalization when foreigners are buying into local markets—whereas foreign sales increase volatility. Before the crisis there is no causal effect for domestic volume on volatility whereas in the post-crisis period total and domestic volumes affect volatility positively. The former result is in line with the theoretical underpinnings that predict that trading within domestic investor groups does not affect volatility. The latter result is consistent with the theoretical argument that the positive relation between the two variables is driven by the uninformed general public.     

东北梅花鹿全血量的研究

对东北梅花鹿生茸期的红细胞压积和全血量进行了测定,结果表明,雄性东北梅花鹿成体生期红细胞压积范围在46%~56%之间,平均压积为49.9±3.74%,99%置信区间为[46.165,53.64],雌性东北梅花鹿成体同期的红细胞压积范围在38%~44%之间,平均压积为40.2±4.70%,99%置信区间[35.51,44.90]。生茸期雄性东北梅花鹿成体全血量占体重的6.40%~8.06%,平均为7.325%。     

紫花鸢尾的细胞学研究

本文报道了紫花鸢尾体细胞的染色体数目,除观察到正常的 2 倍体2n=24外,还发现有 2n=23,2n=22 等非整倍性变异,核型公式为:K(2n)=2x=24=6m+6sm+8st+4t,核型为“3B”型,核型不对称系数为 73.35％,染色体相对长度组成为:2n=24=4L+4M_2+·14M_1+2s,染色体总体积为 73.05μm~3。     

基于KMV模型的地方政府债券信用风险问题研究

借助于KMV模型的思想建立了地方政府债券信用风险模型,进一步探讨了模型的概率分布形态以提高模型的预测精度;并在确定预测标准后,针对2009年已发行地方政府债券的部分省市计算了各地安全发债规模。研究表明,基于KMV模型的地方政府债券信用风险模型具有很强的应用性和很好的推广前景;实践中,在对发债主体进行科学选择的基础上,通过该模型能实现对发债规模的控制,达到防止其发生信用风险的可能;同时,所选样本省市(除新疆外)的预测安全发债规模和实际发债额是合理的和安全的。因此,应建立一套科学规范的地方政府债券风险防控机制,以保证地方政府债券的健康发展。     

物流需求量灰色马尔科夫模型预测

针对物流信息的不确定性与复杂性,用灰色马尔科夫模型对黑龙江省物流需求的指标量"货运量"与"货物周转量"进行了预测。预测结果为黑龙江省物流产业的发展政策及物流基础设施的规划和设计提供了决策依据,对提高黑龙江省物流产业的发展水平具有一定的参考意义。