城乡土地增减挂钩政策的现实困境及可能出路

城乡土地增减挂钩政策的实施,凸显了当前农村土地制度的焦点问题。然而,这一政策却在耕地保护、城市化、土地规模化经营、农村和农民权益保护方面遭遇了一系列难题。究其原因,乃是由于其未能关照＂农村稳定、农业发展、农民权益＂的三农问题多元价值体系,且未经系统考量和全面规划,并受利益驱动陷入了冒进的状态。有鉴于此,走出现实困境,应调整其基本指导思想,以维持农村稳定为基础,以维护农民权利,促进农村发展为根本,并着力完善管理监督机制。     

股市波动对股市募资的影响——基于VAR模型实证分析

本文选取1991年8月至2010年7月一级市场实际募集资金、上证指数及深成指的月度数据作为样本,运用向量自回归(VAR)模型、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应分析及方差分解方法分析股市波动与股市募资的关系,实证分析表明:股市波动是股市募资的原因,其中深成指对股市募资的影响较大;股市募资对股市波动短期有强劲的响应,在长期趋于稳定;股价指数和股市募资存在长期均衡关系。并且在定量分析和定性分析相结合的基础上给出相应的对策建议。     

Measuring quality performance of cadastral survey and deeds registration work processes

When land parcel boundaries are surveyed for purposes of registration in most southern African countries, the cadastral survey records and diagrams prepared have to be examined and approved by the Surveyor General first before they can be registered in the Deeds Registries. For such records to be approved, their quality must conform to requirements stipulated in relevant acts and regulations. Where regulatory requirements are not met, the records are rejected and returned for corrections and resubmission. From a cross-organizational context, poor quality documents lodged upstream have the effect of congesting examination processes downstream as records are rejected and returned backwards due to quality failure. The paper proposes a quality performance measurement model to analyze quality performance in land administration work processes. The developed model is tested on 2 survey examination and approval sites and 3 deeds registration sites in Namibia, Zimbabwe and South Africa. Based on below expected quality results obtained at one of the sites, a root cause analysis was conducted to establish recurring and underlying causal factors upon which quality improvement strategies can be built on.     

宏观经济波动的微观基础:基于股权配给角度的分析

当宏观经济进入衰退阶段,由于上市公司的股权配给,上市公司投资的边际破产成本上升,导致上市公司的投资下降,在投资乘数原理和加速数原理的相互作用下,会使宏观经济衰退更加严重,宏观经济陷入经济衰退与股权配给相互作用的恶性循环中,宏观经济衰退的程度会进一步加大。当宏观经济进入繁荣阶段,呈现与上述相反的过程,会导致宏观经济持续过度繁荣。因此,股权配给是宏观经济波动的加速器。我国的现实是,从微观角度分析,上市公司具有强烈的股权融资偏好;从宏观上看,政府进行股权配给。两者的共同作用,使股权配给具有平抑宏观经济波动的功能。     

石化产品的结构优化模型

石化产品及主要原料－原油的价格变化速度较快，这就要求企业根据市场变化及时进行产品结构调整。结合一个具有代表性的石化企业实际，运用优化方法，以原油加工量、产品收率为主要指标进行石化产品结构优化，为企业生产决策提供可靠的依据。     

河北省宏观经济运行的长期均衡分析

运用协整理论和误差修正模型，估计了河北省宏观经济运行的长期均衡和短期波动关系。从长期看，河北省宏观经济系统存在协整关系，且这种关系对即期GDP具有促进作用．河北经济是投资驱动和出口拉动型的，消费不直接促进经济增长，而是通过协整关系间接促进经济增长。     

证券市场成交量对收益率波动性影响的实证分析

本文根据上海证券市场上证综合指数2005年1月1日到2006年1月1日的复合收益率和日成交量。用GARCC模型描述日成交量对复合收益率的波动性影响。在GARCH模型中加入当期交易量、滞后一期的交易量，结果表明当期交易量变化率能明显削弱收益率条件方差的波动性，而滞后一期的成交量只通过对当期的成交量间接的影响复合收益率。     

US inflation dynamics on long-range data

In this article, we evaluate inflation persistence in the United States using long-range monthly and annual data. The importance of inflation persistence is crucial to policy authorities and market participants, since the level of inflation persistence provides an indication on the susceptibility of the economy to exogenous shocks. Departing from classic econometric approaches found in the relevant literature, we evaluate inflation persistence through the nonparametric Hurst exponent within both a global and a rolling window framework. Moreover, we expand our analysis to detect the potential existence of chaos in the data generating process, in order to enhance the robustness of our conclusions. Overall, we find that inflation persistence is high from 1775 to 2013 for the annual data-set and from February 1876 to May 2014 in monthly frequency, respectively. Especially from the monthly data-set, the rolling window approach allows us to derive that inflation persistence has reached to historically high levels in the post–Bretton Woods period and remained there ever since.     

On the determinants of yield spreads between mortgage pass-through and Treasury securities

Yield spreads between mortgage pass-through and U.S. Treasury securities may reflect differences in taxation, phenomena affecting relative supply and demand, and compensation for default, call, and marketability risks on mortgage instruments. Our research empirically models differences in yields between pass-throughs and comparable-maturity Treasuries. We find that interest-rate volatility and the term structure of rates, factors often cited in the mortgage pricing literature as affecting the mortgage call premium, are the primary determinants of movements in these spreads. Moreover, these effects have grown in importance in recent years as exercise of the prepayment option has increased. We also find evidence that liquidity and credit concerns affect the pricing of pass-through securities.     

The Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio and the Predictability of UK and US Equity Returns

A number of financial variables have been shown to be effective in explaining the time-series of aggregate equity returns in both the UK and the US. These include, inter alia , the equity dividend yield, the spread between the yields on long and short government bonds, and the lagged equity return. Recently, however, the ratio between the long government bond yield and the equity dividend yield – the gilt-equity yield ratio – has emerged as a variable that has considerable explanatory power for UK equity returns. This paper compares the predictive ability of the gilt-equity yield ratio with these other variables for UK and US equity returns, providing evidence on both in-sample and out-of-sample performance. For UK monthly returns, it is shown that while the dividend yield has substantial in-sample explanatory power, this is not matched by out-of sample forecast accuracy. The gilt-equity yield ratio, in contrast, performs well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Although the predictability of US monthly equity returns is much lower than for the UK, a similar result emerges, with the gilt-equity yield ratio dominating the other variables in terms of both in-sample explanatory power and out-of-sample forecast performance. The gilt-equity yield ratio is also shown to have substantial predictive ability for long horizon returns.