平台经济视阈下社会责任消费行为意向驱动因素研究

平台经济的快速发展使得平台型社会责任消费问题日益被关注。立足平台经济情境下社会责任消费行为的“利他”属性，基于弱关系理论和消费者—企业认同理论，从社会互动视角对计划行为理论进行重塑,在问卷调查基础上通过统计分析方法研究社会责任消费行为意向驱动因素。实证显示：行为态度、社会规范、感知行为控制及平台企业社会责任认同对社会责任消费行为意向的生态消费、善因消费和诚信消费三个维度均有不同程度的正向影响，其中社会规范是最大的影响变量；行为态度在社会规范、感知行为控制、平台企业社会责任认同与社会责任消费行为意向之间起中介作用。修正后的计划行为理论实现了个人与社会、理性逻辑和情感逻辑的有机统一，能对平台经济视阈下社会责任消费行为意向进行有效的解释与预测,从而为平台社会责任生态化治理提供一定启示。     

Early warning indicators? The effect of consumer and investor sentiments on the restaurant industry

This study looks at the influence of cyclical fluctuations of the consumer confidence index (CCI) and the volatility index (VIX) as early-warning indicators of the variations in restaurant performance. The industry has traditionally focused on past data and on microeconomic influences to anticipate its future performance, a procedure that does not consider possible cyclical fluctuations in restaurant performance metrics. These fluctuations are driven by sentiments of consumers and investors. The study uses the cyclical component of the applied data, followed by unit root and cointegration testing, with subsequent application of the Limited Information Maximum Likelihood technique. The results show both indicators have an effect on restaurant performance, where VIX has an impact on the current, expected, and overall restaurant performance, while the CCI’s influence is only partial (current performance). Policy-makers and planners could benefit from anticipating features of indicators to assess and steer the future performance of the restaurant industry.     

基于VAR模型的CCI影响因素分析

本文运用包含消费者预期指数、消费者满意指数的消费者信心指数的月度时间序列数据,利用VAR模型方法分析了消费者满意指数和预期指数的影响关系,同时,分析了它们与物价、消费、储蓄、股票市场的相互影响关系.分析结果显示:消费者满意指数和消费者预期指数有影响关系,滞后一期消费者预期指数对当期消费者满意指数和消费者预期指数都有正的影响,滞后二期的预期指数对当期满意指数有负的影响;物价指数对消费者信心指数的影响有明显的滞后,当期物价指数对下一期的满意指数和预期指数都有正的影响,对于下两期的有负的影响;无论从长期角度还是短期角度看,存款总额对消费者预期指数、消费者满意指数的影响都是正向的.同时,本文验证了消费者信心指数的信号引导功能,消费者预期指数有消费引导功能,其提升会导致以后的消费总额的增长;储蓄增长有助于信心指数的增长;股票市场对信心指数影响不显著.     

The Camping Climate Index (CCI): The development,validation, and application of a camping-sector tourism climate index

Camping is a nature-based tourism activity where individuals spend one or more night away from home in an outdoor setting. Inherent in the definition are time and space, as well as exposure to natural elements such as weather or extremes. This study introduces the novel Camping Climate Index (CCI) to explore the impacts of weather and climatic variability on camping occupancy and optimal camping conditions. Daily meteorological data for 29 for-profit camping locations is analyzed and matched with daily camping occupancy data for the tent, recreational vehicle, and cabin categories. The CCI is empirically validated for camping behaviors compared to other tourism indices including the Tourism Climate Index and Holiday Climate Index. This study is the first to create an index using observed camping occupancy data for the three categories of camping matched with daily weather data that also captures the overriding effects of extreme/adverse weather events.     

我国蜂蜜贸易国际竞争力的比较分析

根据FAOSTAT和中国统计年鉴等提供的最新数据,在运用市场占有率、显示性对称比较优势分析和综合竞争力分析的基础上,综合测算和分析了我国蜂蜜贸易竞争力的变化。结果表明,2002年后我国蜂蜜的竞争力不降反升,已超越加拿大,但较阿根廷低。原因在于2002年以来,我国蜂蜜质量的整体提高和蜂蜜营销能力的增强,直接导致国际竞争力得到提高。因此,要提高我国蜂蜜的国际竞争力就要转变长期依靠价格竞争的方式,着重蜂产品质量和企业营销能力两个方面的提高,变贸易劣势为优势。最后,提出了增强我国蜂蜜国际竞争力的六条建议。     

Investor sentiment and stock returns: Global evidence

We assess the impact of investor sentiment on future stock returns in 50 global stock markets. Using the consumer confidence index (CCI) as the sentiment proxy, we document a negative relationship between investor sentiment and future stock returns at the global level. While the separation between developed and emerging markets does not disrupt the negative pattern, investor sentiment has a more instant impact in emerging markets, but a more enduring impact in developed markets. Individual stock markets reveal heterogeneity in the sentiment-return relationship. This heterogeneity can be explained by cross-market differences in culture and institutions, along with intelligence and education, to varying degrees influenced by the extent of individual investor market participation.     

消费者信心指数与股票市场收益的实证研究

基于行为金融学的视角，研究消费者信心和股票市场收益的互动关系，结果发现消费者信心指数与殷市收益具有较强的相关性。利用脉）辛响应和方差分解分析消费者信心与股市收益之间的互动关系，结果表明，消费者信心指数能预测一部分收益，股市收益与消费者信心指数间的冲击具有不对称性。     

我国消费者信心指标与股价指数的关联度研究

我国股市“非理性投机”、“弱式有效市场”的现状，造成我国如今股市低迷、投资者信心不足等严重的问题。而通过传统的技术分析和基础分析手段，无法对股市震荡、股价的波动进行完美的诠释，因而部分学者开始另辟蹊径，探寻能够更好解释股价变动的“第三条中间路线”。此时，我国消费者信心指标的编制与发布，为研究提供了全新的视角与思路。我国自2003年底开始编制并发布消费者信心指标，旨在从宏观整体经济发展，到微观股市汇市走势研究预测方面，发挥该指标强大的领先与预测功能。文章选取我国三组消费信心指标、上证综指与深证综指两组股价指数，通过相关性检验、因果检验与脉冲响应指数与方差分解等方式，不仅得出我国消费信心指标与股价变动之间较强的关联性，还通过分样本区间的讨论，得出股市衰退、股价下滑阶段，CCI指标与股价指数的关联度更大的结论。     

Why Consumers in Developing Countries Prefer Foreign Brands: A Study of Japanese Brands in Vietnam

ABSTRACT

Building on social-identity theory, the research develops a model for understanding of the impact of consumer identification with a nation on consumers' brand evaluations. It posits that developing-country consumers' identification with a foreign (developed) nation influences three factors—consumer-based brand equity, consumer-based country image, and consumer-based brand credibility. The research was informed by data from 400 Vietnamese consumers in relation to two Japanese brands Sony and Honda and analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM). The findings show that Vietnamese (developing-country) consumers prefer Japanese (developed-country) brands over domestic brands, when these consumers identify with the developed nation.     

股票投资周CCI指标策略收益的检验分析

从技术分析投资策略的角度,对周CCI指标应用的常规策略一和常规策略二的收益进行检验分析,即采用真实的历史数据进行模拟交易,检验分析运用这些策略进行系统交易的投资回报率.同时,将这些策略所获得的回报率与单纯的"买入——持有"所取得的回报率作比较,并且对不同策略所获得的回报率进行比较分析,以考察技术分析指标的有效性和我国股市的弱式有效性.