Monetary and Financial Cooperation Between China and the One Belt One Road Countries

ABSTRACT

Based on the theory of optimal currency area (OCA), we calculate the OCA index between China and the OBOR partners with the expressed objective of identifying which partners exhibit monetary and financial compatibilities, and hence present the best potential in terms of cost and benefits. Our findings suggest that among South East Asia region, Malaysia exhibits the highest compatibility and profit potential, followed by Thailand and Vietnam. For the East European area, Poland and Croatia show the best potential in terms of monetary and financial cooperation; with the Czech Republic as close third. Based on our computation, currently Central Asia and the Middle East do not possess the condition or potential for beneficial financial and monetary collaboration.     

Productivity efficiency analysis of the airlines in China after deregulation

Using data envelopment analysis and the Malmquist productivity index, this paper studies productivity efficiency of various airlines in China after the Chinese government deregulated the aviation industry in 2005. The results show that the productivity efficiency of non-state-owned airlines improves rapidly and eventually exceeds state-owned airlines after the deregulation policy. Among the state-owned airlines, the productivity of the local airlines and their technical changes are better than those of the central airlines.     

‘Globesity’? The effects of globalization on obesity and caloric intake

We examine the effect of globalization, in its economic and social dimensions, on obesity and caloric intake, namely the so –called ‘globesity’ hypothesis. Our results suggest a robust association between globalization and both obesity and caloric intake. A one standard deviation increase in globalization is associated with a 23.8 percent increase in obese population and a 4.3 percent rise in calorie intake. The effect remains statistically significant even after using an instrumental variable strategy to correct for some possible reverse causality and ommited variable bias, a lagged structure, and corrections for panel standard errors. However, we find that the primary driver (of the ‘globesity’ phenomenon) is the ‘social’ rather than the ‘economic’ dimension of globalization, and specifically the effect of changes in ‘information flows’ and ‘social proximity’ on obesity. A one standard deviation increase in social globalization increased the percentage of obese population by 13.7 percent.     

The consequences of managerial indiscretions: Sex,lies, and firm value

Personal managerial indiscretions are separate from a firm's business activities but provide information about the manager's integrity. Consequently, they could affect counterparties’ trust in the firm and the firm's value and operations. We find that companies of accused executives experience significant wealth deterioration, reduced operating margins, and lost business partners. Indiscretions are also associated with an increased probability of unrelated shareholder-initiated lawsuits, Department of Justice and Securities and Exchange Commission investigations, and managed earnings. Further, chief executive officers and boards face labor market consequences, including forced turnover, pay cuts, and lower shareholder votes at re-election. Indiscretions occur more often at poorly governed firms where disciplinary turnover is less likely.     

中国商业银行整体效率研究* ——基于具有中间投入和中间产出的综合网络DEA模型

本文基于对银行业务结构和特征的分析，将银行看做具有中间投入和中间产出的串联两阶段网络生产结构。第一阶段为负债业务和中间业务，第二阶段为资产业务。基于这一网络结构，本文首先建立具有中间投入和中间产出的综合网络DEA模型，并证明在此模型下整体网络DEA有效等价于每个子阶段DEA有效，即此模型是打开黑箱的网络DEA模型，并定义网络决策单元的投影。本文以中国16家上市商业银行为样本，测算了2006-2010年各商业银行的整体效率、子阶段效率、关联指数和每家银行的投影。分析结果显示，大型国有商业银行在负债业务和中间业务阶段具有明显的竞争优势，股份制商业银行在资产业务阶段具有效率优势，城市商业银行的两阶段业务关联性最差。本文计算的投影，给出了银行提高整体效率的改进方向。     

How useful is an Asian Currency Unit (ACU) index for surveillance in East Asia?

An Asian Currency Unit (ACU) index is constructed using an alternative procedure which minimizes a basket or portfolio of assets expressed in terms of national currencies. Using this estimated ACU index and an ACU deviation indicator, the main finding of this study based on the current trajectory of East Asian currencies relative to this regional ACU benchmark is that there is a formation of two contrasting groups of countries in the region—one group of strong currencies and one group of weak currencies. We emphasize that this contrasting trajectory in East Asian intra-regional exchange rates implies disturbed competitive trading relationships in the region, which may result in wasteful beggar-thy-neighbor policies. As emphasized in other recent studies (e.g., Kawai and Takagi, 2012), the region needs a framework for exchange rate policy coordination that will promote intra-regional exchange rate stability. We suggest two important ways in which the region can capitalize on using an ACU index for surveillance purposes in the immediate term. One way is to assess “over- and undervaluation” of individual currencies from the regional ACU average. The other is to use it as a monitoring device for excessive flows of international capital within the region.     

Systemic financial risk early warning of financial market in China using Attention-LSTM model

We propose an Attention-LSTM neural network model to study the systemic risk early warning of China. Based on text mining, the network public opinion index is constructed and used as a training set to be incorporated into the early warning model to test the early warning effect. The results show that: (i) the network public opinion is the non-linear Granger causality of systemic risk. (ii) The Attention-LSTM neural network has strong generalization ability. Early warning effects have been significantly improved. (iii) Compared with the BP neural network model, the SVR model and the ARIMA model, the LSTM neural network early warning model has a higher accuracy rate, and its average prediction accuracy for systemic risk indicators has been improved over short, medium and long terms. When the attention mechanism is included in the LSTM, the Attention-LSTM neural network model is even more accurate in all the cases.     

Which formula for national happiness?

The World Happiness Report is published by the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network and contains an international ranking of national average happiness, as measured by surveys of personal life evaluations. It also contains an analysis which tries to explain the happiness figures from more than 150 countries using data on six key variables. That analysis assumes the factors combine in an additive manner and therefore operate independently of each other. By contrast, we explore a multiplicative model, which allows for interactivity or synergy between factors, as well as the possibility of diminishing marginal benefit at higher levels of achievement. We find that this model provides a better fit to the data and is therefore superior in its explanatory power. The implication for policy-makers is that they should focus on improving those factors which are the lowest for their nation as this will provide greater relative benefits to subjective well-being. At an individual level this means focusing on improving conditions for those who are experiencing the lowest levels of well-being.     

Measuring destocking performance of the Chinese real estate industry: A DEA-Malmquist approach

This paper aims to measure the evolution of destocking performance of the Chinese Real Estate Industry based on a DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis)-Malmquist approach, which is seldom used in this industry in existing literature. In 2016, the Chinese government introduced a unified national destocking policy to reduce real estate inventory to save the downturn in the real estate market, but the effect was less than expected and led to soaring house prices in first-tier cities. By analysing the destocking performance over the period from 2005 to 2015, we find the following: (1) It is impossible to use a unified policy to effectively address the national destocking issue because of the difference of DMUs' destocking efficiency, input redundancy and total factor productivity score changes. (2) With the current destocking performance and investment status, the government is still ignoring the existing commercial real estate problems. (3) The redundancy of firm assets and staff indicates that zombie firms may exist and risk future unemployment in the real estate industry. (4) Despite the recently repeated government interventions in this industry, destocking performance remains falling since 2008, and problems in other regions is more severe than in central cities. (5) The financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis has had a great impact on China's real estate industry. The destocking performance dropped sharply in 2008, forcing the Chinese government to introduce policies to stimulate the real estate market. Policy recommendations are also put forward based on the findings.     

Does foreign direct investment expand the capability set in the host economy? A sectoral analysis

Most empirical studies examining the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic development use aggregate monetary-based measures such as GDP or TFP growth as indicators for development. We deviate from this approach and use instead the recently developed economic complexity index; this measure summarises the complexity of the productive structure of an economy, and its values can be interpreted as the number of capabilities present in a country. These capabilities are units of productive knowledge necessary for the production of goods, and goods differ in the number of necessary capabilities. Furthermore, we use sectoral FDI data to take differences between sectors of an economy into account, since the number of necessary capabilities also varies between the sectors. In our empirical analysis, covering 63 developing and developed countries over the period 2005–14, we find that FDI in the tertiary sector has a statistically significant and robust positive effect on the number of capabilities, whereas FDI in the primary and secondary sectors generally does not increase the capability set of an economy.