STATISTICS IN THE SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES

This survey paper gives an impression of the main ways in which statistics is used in disciplines such as sociology and psychology. After an introductory section 1 the negative image of social science research is discussed in section 2. Section 3 is devoted to the enormous influence of modern computing facilities. Measurement of human behaviour has its specific problems (section 4). The use of linear and log–linear models is the topic of section 5. Latent variables are a basic concept for social and behavioral scientists, both in some linear models (section 6) and in item response theory (section 7). In the next section multidimensional and optimal scaling techniques are mentioned, and a selection of other topics is the content of section 9. Some general remarks on the generalizability claim of statistical methods constitute the final section. Because of space limitations and priority considerations, the author has decided to write a paper about topics and not about individual research contributions. For this reason there is no list of references (it would take several pages) and no painful split of all Dutch authors into those mentioned and those omitted. In general the Dutch research community has made quite a few major contributions to the area discussed in this paper.     

Smoke and Mirrors: Mapping the Dimensions of a `Cigarette pace'

The Method of Sorting is a widely-used research tool for quantifying human cognition. It allows informants to provide data that are generally analysed with multidimensional scaling. Here the method was extended to collect additional information. In combination with the Method of Triads, it was applied to 36 brands of cigarette, resulting in a three-dimensional `Cigarette space', where the dimensions correspond to the main criteria on which brands were compared. Previous research, including reports from within the tobacco industry, provides points of comparison. One dimension resulting from tapping into the informants' accumulated expertise was closely correlated with tar content and can be identified as `strength' – in effect, a Strength scale for cigarette brands, allowing the informal distinction between light and heavy smokers to be refined. Other dimensions correspond to other aspects of taste. In a validity test, the map proved to be congruent with the same informants' preferences.     

煤层瓦斯抽放封孔工艺研究与应用

针对突出煤层瓦斯抽采钻孔封孔现场存在的技术难题,以钻孔封孔技术理论为指导。以天荣一矿为研究背景,比较和研究了几种常见的封孔工艺,在井下现场实施过程中,进一步优化了封孔施工工艺。研究结果表明:保证了封孔质量,有效提高了瓦斯抽放浓度。     

The use of the scaling property in a frontier analysis of a system of equations

ABSTRACT

This article presents a one-stage efficiency frontier analysis based on the scaling property. This type of analysis is a not very often applied in empirical work in spite of its nice features. Due to the scaling property the influence of exogenous (managerial) variables on efficiency can be modelled and estimated in one stage. It also opens the possibility of estimating a system of equations, consisting of a cost function and the corresponding cost share equations. The model is applied to a unique data set of Dutch secondary education school boards in the period 2007–10, not only consisting of regular data on cost, inputs and outputs, but also of specific data on operational management. The model provides reliable and plausible estimates for the cost efficiency, scale elasticity, and technical change. Average cost efficiency is about 96%. Economies of scale prevail for school boards with size less than 0.8 times average size, whereas annual productivity growth is 2.2% on average.     

Revealed and stated preference analysis of ski resort attractiveness

The paper compares a revealed and stated preference approach for estimating the site attractiveness of Vermont ski resorts to weekend skiers. Unexpected bias in attractiveness estimates, seemingly caused by the geometry of origins and destinations, is discovered when the revealed preference approach is used. The attractiveness scales of resorts, which were estimated using separate metric (Thurstone) and nonmetric (nonmetric scaling) models of preference, are shown to be very similar despite the different assumptions of the two models. Eighty‐six percent of variance in the attractiveness estimates of resorts is explained by only two variables, mean perceived length of slopes and mean perceived level of crowding. A multidimensional scaling analysis of a matrix showing the mean cognitive similarity of each pair of 23 resorts reveals that the resultant two‐dimensional cognitive map of the resorts can be largely characterized by the same two attributes, slope length and crowding, that explain the preference‐based attractiveness estimates.     

Pairwise comparison of concessions in negotiation processes

Starting off with a pairwise-comparison method to evaluate the possible deals between two parties in conflict, we generalize the approach and we consider the case of three parties in conflict. The basic step is the subjective evaluation of a deal where each party offers exactly one concession. The trade-off of benefits and costs is judged in verbal terms which are subsequently converted into numerical values on a discrete geometric scale. Although the number of plausible geometric scales is large, the information to be used by a mediator is scale-independent. The approach is illustrated by the results of an exploratory project aiming at a balanced CO₂ emission reduction in Poland, Brazil, and the netherlands. The success of the method depends largely on the information-processing support. Given the limitations of human imagination and human judgement, the method is not likely to be effective in a conflict among four or more parties, although it can easily be generalized.Paper presented at the IFAC Workshop on Support Systems for Decision and Negotiation Processes, Warsaw, Poland, June 24–26, 1992.     

大颗粒尿素生产过程中的问题及解决办法分析

对喷淋造粒工艺生产大颗粒尿素在生产过程中出现的问题进行分析,特别对生产大颗粒尿素所用喷头的一些指标进行研究,并提出了新型喷头的设想;介绍了空心粒及粉尘尿素的解决方案。     

非标准检尺对木材税费及价格的影响

本文以4 m长小头直径为4~20 cm的杉木为样本,假设各个尺寸的木材在各径阶内呈均匀分布。分别采用国家标准原木检尺和不同程度让尺检尺方法计算由于让尺所造成的木材价格变化及税费损失,提高人们对非标准检尺所带来危害的认识。     

A dynamic decision support system for evaluating peer-to-peer rental accommodations in the sharing economy

Accommodation accounts for one of the biggest expenses while traveling, and deciding where to stay is often confusing and time-consuming. Fortunately, travelers have more options than ever before because of the substantial growth of the peer-to-peer (P2P) short-term rentals in the sharing economy. Designing a user-friendly system that considers travelers’ preferences in choosing the right accommodation can enhance customer satisfaction and increase profitability. We propose a dynamic decision support system based on the theory of multi-criteria decision making to assist travelers in personalizing their preferences and finding quality accommodations in the dominant P2P market that aligns with those preferences. We use the fuzzy best-worst method to measure the intensity of the user’s preferences and the fuzzy technique for order of preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) to score and evaluate alternative P2P rental properties. We present a case study in the P2P rental accommodations industry to demonstrate the applicability of the method proposed in this study.     

Risk preferences,risk perceptions,and risky food

This paper presents the results of a study that tests the hypothesis that the effect of risk preference on choice is a function of the specific risk-preference measure utilized. In addition, this study tests the hypothesis that the effect of risk preference on choice depends upon its interaction with risk perceptions. I elicit three distinct measures of risk preference: a standard real-money Holt and Laury measure, a hypothetical health-variant of the Holt and Laury measure, and a non-context-specific self-assessment measure. I also elicit information regarding risk perceptions (specifically, food safety). These data are combined with choice data focused on consumer preferences for raw oysters. Results indicate that, after controlling for key oyster attributes, perceived risk perception is highly significant. Additionally, the effect of risk preference is significant, and the effect depends on whether respondents held informative or non-informative risk perceptions. In a treatment that includes only named oyster varieties, I find that although respondents generally prefer named Atlantic coast oysters to named Gulf and Pacific coast oysters, those who hold non-informative risk perceptions are even less likely to choose Gulf and Pacific coast oysters as the magnitude of risk aversion increases. In another treatment that includes a generic “commodity” Gulf coast oyster, I find that although named Gulf coast oysters are generally preferred to the commodity Gulf coast oyster, respondents with non-informative risk perceptions are significantly less likely to choose named Gulf coast oysters as the magnitude of risk aversion increases.