ESTIMATION OF GLOBAL LOGISTICS EXPENDITURES USING NEURAL NETWORKS

Measuring the size of global logistics expenditure is a difficult task. What is an estimate of logistics expenditures for the global economy? The objective of this research is to answer this question. Using neural networks, an artificial intelligence methodology, logistics expenditures have been estimated at the country level. There are two main contributions from this research. The first is an update of previous estimates of global logistics expenditures. The second is continuous improvement of the estimation method, including information quality and availability as well as mathematical model refinement.     

ESTIMATION OF GLOBAL AND NATIONAL LOGISTICS EXPENDITURES: 2002 DATA UPDATE

The objective of this research was to estimate logistic expenditure for the global economy. An Artificial Neural Network was used to generate national estimates. The estimation set constitutes 24 countries representing approximately 75% of the global Gross Domestic Product. The model utilizes variables that capture economic activity, transportation activity, income level, country size, and geographic location. This research updates previous estimates and represents continuous improvement of the estimation method, including new input variables, better information quality, mathematical model refinement, and methods of model validation.     

信用卡转换成本研究综述

早在上世纪80年代,经济学家开始研究存在转换成本的市场竞争问题.目前,有关转换成本的研究主要集中在电信、银行存款及信用卡等市场领域.研究信用卡转换成本对银行业发展、信用卡产业的发展等具有重要现实意义.本文基于转换成本一般研究基础之上,从转换成本的内涵与类型、对消费者的影响及研究方法等方面对学术界有关信用卡转换成本的研究进行了梳理和概括,以期为今后的信用卡转换成本的深入研究提供参考.     

交易成本理论的现实意义

科斯的交易成本理论包括交易成本和科斯定理.交易成本的本质是与交易有关的制度的运行成本,科斯定理最根本的是明确产权对减少交易成本的决定性作用.体制的创新、企业的改革、外部效应所产生的污染问题及政府的职能转变等充分诠释了交易成本理论的现实意义.     

中小企业联保贷款的信誉博弈分析

本文在考察中小企业的违约信用成本、群体特点、经营环境的基础上,构建了一个中小企业联保贷款的信誉博弈分析框架,讨论了银行如何通过设置信誉成本将银行与企业之间的贷款—还款博弈转化为联保贷款成员企业之间的信誉博弈来降低信用风险的机制。研究结果表明:有效的信誉成本是开展中小企业联保贷款的制度基础;信誉成本主要体现为企业违约后丧失联保企业集团内部交易资格所引致的机会成本;银行的激励条件内生地决定了联保贷款的市场风险边界;银行在开展多元联保贷款时需要在拓展市场风险阈值和潜在信用风险之间进行权衡,以确定最佳的联保贷款成员规模。     

合作社内部“影响成本”决定因素的实证分析——基于山东省苹果专业合作社的调查数据

鉴于合作社集体产权安排和成员股权无法转让等原因,当存在影响社员利益分享或成本分担的组织决策且上下级信息沟通渠道顺畅时,利益相关者就会试图扭曲组织决策以获取潜在收益,进而产生降低决策效率的影响成本。本文利用山东省苹果专业合作社的调研数据,首先测度合作社内部影响成本规模,然后采用有序Probit模型对合作社内部影响成本的决定因素进行实证分析。研究表明:社员异质性是导致合作社内部影响成本增加的关键性因素;管理者存在外部选择诱惑、采用一人一票制表决方式和合作社扩张社员规模等对合作社内部影响成本也具有正向显著影响。基于此,协调异质性社员的利益诉求、选择合适的组织决策模式和设计合理的管理者激励制度对于转型经济时期农民专业合作社的健康发展至关重要。     

Costs of hospital visits among patients with deep vein thrombosis treated with rivaroxaban and LMWH/warfarin

Background:

For many years, the standard of care for patients diagnosed with deep vein thrombosis (DVT) has been low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) bridging to an oral Vitamin-K antagonist (VKA). The availability of new non-VKA oral anticoagulants (NOAC) agents as monotherapy may reduce the likelihood of hospitalization for DVT patients.

Objective:

To compare hospital visit costs of DVT patients treated with rivaroxaban and LMWH/warfarin.

Methods:

A retrospective claim analysis was conducted using the MarketScan Hospital Drug Database for care provided between January 2011 and December 2013. Adult patients using rivaroxaban or LMWH/warfarin with a primary diagnosis of DVT during the first day of a hospital visit were identified (i.e., index hospital visit). Based on propensity-score methods, historical LMWH/warfarin patients (i.e., patients who received LMWH/warfarin before the approval of rivaroxaban) were matched 4:1 to rivaroxaban patients. The hospital-visit cost difference between these groups was evaluated for the index hospital visit, as well as for total hospital-visit costs (i.e., including index and subsequent hospital visit costs).

Results:

All rivaroxaban users (n?=?134) in the database were well-matched with four LMWH/warfarin users (n?=?536). The mean hospital-visit costs were $5257 for the rivaroxaban cohort and $6764 in the matched-cohort of patients using LMWH/warfarin. The $1508 cost difference was statistically significant between cohorts (95% CI?=?[?$2296; ?$580]; p-value?=?0.002). Total hospital-visit costs were lower for rivaroxaban compared to LMWH/warfarin users within 1, 2, 3, and 6 months after index visit (significantly lower within 1 and 3 months, p-values <0.05)

Limitations:

Limitations were inherent to administrative-claims data, completeness of baseline characteristics, adjustments restricted to observational factors, and lastly the sample size of the rivaroxaban cohort.

Conclusion:

The availability of rivaroxaban significantly reduced the costs of hospital visits in patients with DVT treated with rivaroxaban compared to LMWH/warfarin.     

Costs of change and political polarization

We study a two-period model of policy-making where (i) changes of current policies impose costs on all individuals that increase linearly with the magnitude of the policy shift and (ii) political power changes over time. We show that policy polarization is minimal for intermediate marginal costs. In turn, welfare is a single-peaked function of the marginal cost. One interpretation is that societies with political institutions that impose positive but moderate costs on political reforms simultaneously achieve the highest welfare and the lowest policy polarization.     

Tax-tariff reform with costs of tax administration

As is broadly recognised, the straightforward application of the Diamond–Mirrlees (1971) production efficiency theorem implies that when lump-sum taxation is not available, then it is optimal for the government in a small open economy to rely on taxes on the net demand of households rather than on border taxes to finance its resource requirements. However, the theorem does not hold when taxation is associated with administrative costs. The present paper explores the implications for optimal taxation and for desirable directions of tax-tariff reform of taking into account the costs of tax administration in countries at different levels of economic development. The paper clarifies the reasons for, and lends support to, the criticism by Stiglitz (Presentation to Congress of International Institute of Public Finance, Prague, 2003) of the IMF and the World Bank’s recommendation to developing countries to adopt VAT to replace border taxes.