中国股市收益率波动实证研究--基于自回归条件持续性模型

结合高频数据和自回归条件持续性(ACD)模型进行的研究表明:在中国市场,自回归条件持续性模型可以成功用来衡量交易到达的强度.最后展望了该模型的发展方向.     

基于面板数据的不同产业并购对公司劳动力需求影响实证研究

以2002～2008年沪深两市发生并购的不同产业上市公司平衡面板数据集为研究总样本,通过构造固定效应变截距面板数据中模型,探究不同产业公司并购对公司劳动力需求影响.发现:不同产业公司并购对公司劳动力需求有差异影响.第一产业所发生公司并购对公司劳动力需求有正向影响,即并购发生导致公司劳动力需求增加2.4%左右,但结果不显著;第二产业、第三产业所发生公司并购对公司劳动力需求有显著负向影响,第二产业发生公司并购导致公司劳动力需求减少1.3%左右、第三产业发生公司并购导致公司劳动力需求减少2.6%左右.通过此研究,不但从理论上丰富并购研究内容,拓展并购研究范围,而且在并购对公司劳动力需求有影响前提下,为政府制定关于社会就业合理政策提供重要参考.     

Efficiency in broadband service provision: A spatial analysis

With the 2008 Federal Communications Commission (FCC) order amending both the definition of broadband and its data collection practices, the problems associated with data integrity and ZIP code aggregations in the United States will soon be forgotten. However, between 1999 and 2007, FCC Form 477 data remain the only viable, nationwide database of broadband provision in the United States. While broadband data from 1999–2004 and 2005–2007 are not directly comparable due to a modification in collection procedure, there is an absence of objective empirical analysis for the latter time period. Interestingly, although the FCC made the 2005–2007 data publically available on the Internet, password protected files largely prevented analysts from accessing, manipulating and analyzing these data. The purpose of this paper is three-fold. First, the process utilized for liberating these data from their protected format and integrating them into a geographic information system (GIS) is outlined. Second, the spatial distribution of broadband provision in the United States for 2005–2007 is explored. A mathematical programming approach is also utilized for comparing the relative efficiencies of ZIP code areas in acquiring broadband service given their demand-side socio-economic and demographic determinants. Finally, implications for public policy, particularly those associated with developing local and regional benchmarks for broadband provision, competition and access, are addressed.     

Determinants of Adoption of Protected Designation of Origin Label: Evidence from the French Brie Cheese Industry

This paper investigates empirically the determinants of agro‐food firms’ adoption of the Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) label. A unique dataset containing firm‐level cost and production information on the French Brie cheese is used, covering the period 1980–2000. The Brie cheese data are especially relevant as PDO Brie producers have coexisted with other non‐PDO producers since 1981. To evaluate the producers’ incentive to opt for PDO certification, we use a structural switching regression model which incorporates cost and production structure variables. Results show that PDO certification is less attractive the higher the costs of raw materials and the greater the size of the company. PDO Brie cheese production costs are estimated to be on average 40% higher than those for non‐PDO Brie. The PDO production process could be technically inefficient when compared with the unconstrained non‐PDO manufacturing; yet, PDO producers benefit from a price premium on their product which offsets their higher production cost.     

住宅价格与经济基本面:1995-2002年中国14城市的实证研究

本文利用 1 995— 2 0 0 2年我国 1 4城市的中房住宅价格指数与宏观经济基本面相关变量的平行数据 ,运用混合样本回归以及添加城市、年度哑变量等分析方法 ,对住宅价格与经济基本面的关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明 ,1 4城市经济基本面的当前信息或历史信息都可以部分解释住宅价格水平或者变化率 ,我国住宅市场并不符合有效市场假说。经济基本面对住宅价格水平的解释模型存在着显著的城市影响特征 ,1 998年后经济基本面对住宅价格的解释能力发生了显著的变化 ,且这种变化在 2 0 0 1— 2 0 0 2年间尤其明显。近年来各城市住宅价格的增长已经无法很好地用经济基本面和住宅价格的历史信息来解释 ,必须引起政府和行业的足够重视。     

金融机构在税收征管中的第三方协助义务——以金融隐私权为核心

随着金融交易在现代经济中的重要性日益突出,金融信息也成为税收征管不可或缺的重要课税资料之一。但金融机构基于金融隐私权的保护而承担的信息保密义务,却已成为制约税务机关获取金融交易信息的重要法律障碍之一;这一障碍即便是《税收征管法》明确规定金融机构的第三方协助义务后也无法予以清除。因此,如何在金融隐私权的保护与税务机关金融信息的取得之间实现一定的平衡,如何促进金融机构积极履行其在税收征管中的第三方协助义务,便成为《税收征管法》修改的重要内容。为此,有必要构建税务机关获取金融信息的渠道、确立金融机构协助义务的履行,并明确税务机关获取信息的法律界限。     

A generalized framework for estimating customer lifetime value when customer lifetimes are not observed

Measuring customer lifetime value (CLV) in contexts where customer defections are not observed, i.e. noncontractual contexts, has been very challenging for firms. This paper proposes a flexible Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based data augmentation framework for forecasting lifetimes and estimating customer lifetime value (CLV) in such contexts. The framework can be used to estimate many different types of CLV models—both existing and new. Models proposed so far for estimating CLV in noncontractual contexts have built-in stringent assumptions with respect to the underlying customer lifetime and purchase behavior. For example, two existing state-of-the-art models for lifetime value estimation in a noncontractual context are the Pareto/NBD and the BG/NBD models. Both of these models are based on fixed underlying assumptions about drivers of CLV that cannot be changed even in situations where the firm believes that these assumptions are violated. The proposed simulation framework—not being a model but an estimation framework—allows the user to use any of the commonly available statistical distributions for the drivers of CLV, and thus the multitude of models that can be estimated using the proposed framework (the Pareto/NBD and the BG/NBD models included) is limited only by the availability of statistical distributions. In addition, the proposed framework allows users to incorporate covariates and correlations across all the drivers of CLV in estimating lifetime values of customers.

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商务智能在中国的现状和发展研究

商务智能是数据仓库、联机分析处理和数据挖掘技术研究的新兴领域。近年来,商务智能的理论与应用研究发展迅速,并引起了国内外研究人员的重视。以科学引文索引数据库(SCI)、工程索引数据库(EI)以及清华全文数据库(CNKI)中有关“商务智能”研究文章的统计数据为研究基础,对商务智能在我国研究的总体趋势和研究热点两个方面进行分析和研究。最后,分析了商务智能在我国的发展,并对进一步发展我国商务智能的理论研究和实际应用提出了建议。     

Model selection via genetic algorithms illustrated with cross-country growth data

We provide a new simple procedure for selecting econometric models, which is used to select the regressors of the cross-country growth model regression. This procedure is based on a heuristic approach called genetic algorithms which are used to explore the universe of models made available by a General Unrestricted Model. This search process of the correct model is only guided by the Schwarz information criterion, which acts as the loss function of the genetic algorithm in order to rank the models. Our procedure shows good performance relative to other alternative methodologies when they are compared in a simulation environment. This research was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Education through the project SEJ2006-07701.     

产权、市场结构与中国银行业绩效——基于修正的S-C-P分析框架

本文引入产权结构变量修正了传统的S-C-P(结构行为绩效)分析框架,并基于该框架利用截面数据模型实证分析了2000~2004年间以产权改革为主导的中国银行业绩效的影响因素。实证结果表明,产权结构单一和行业过于集中是影响银行业效率和绩效提升的两个主要因素;产权和市场结构对国有商业银行和股份制商业银行绩效影响是不同的,产权结构和市场结构对国有商业银行绩效影响显著;而对于股份制商业银行,市场结构对绩效的影响更大。因此当前的银行业改革在侧重于产权改革的同时不能忽视行业市场结构的优化。