我国国债利率期限结构研究

本文简单地阐述了传统的利率期限结构理论,通过连续复利的方式获得了我国国债的到期收益率。在此基础上,构造了国债收益率曲线并通过建模获得了收益率曲线的回归方程。同时,根据我国国债利率期限结构的形状和特点,用传统的利率期限结构理论对其进行理论说明,并指出国债产品设计与定价上的问题与改进建议。     

Prospect of Global Sovereign Debt Crisis and Its Impact on China

欧美财政的可持续性备受质疑,全球主权债务危机的前景不容乐观,全球经济将进入低速增长期。与次贷危机的比较分析发现,欧债危机短期内对中国经济的负面影响不应被夸大。但从中长期来看,中国央行资产负债表资产方与负债方之间的结构性矛盾将越来越明显,对中国未来的金融稳定造成潜在的威胁,亟待采取必要的政策措施予以防范。     

从京东方负债扩张看我国的杠杆收购

20上世纪80年代风靡美国的杠杆收购方式以其巨大的溢价空间和较高的财务、经营风险引起理论学者的研究和实践人士的青睐。我国现阶段,实行杠杆收购有着非常深远的影响和广阔的空间,但仍存在许多制约因素,如法律不完善、资本市场弱式化、投资银行不发达、管理人员素质不高等。     

外债宏观审慎监管的具体方法和实施路径

随着资本项目可兑换进程的推进,资本项下各类业务的政策限制越来越少,而由于外债的形式和特点使资金流入流出基本不受限制,因此跨境资金通过外债形式进出成为目前乃至今后的风险点,而且目前的外债管理存在一些问题和局限性。目前宏观审慎监管已成为我国宏观调控和维护金融系统稳定的工具,防范金融系统性风险的手段,外债管理在新形势下应用新的监管手段是大势之趋。     

Is the Euro-zone on the Mend? Latin American examples to analyze the Euro question

Several European countries face challenges reminiscent of those faced by the emerging economies of Latin America. The economic booms in some peripheral Euro-zone countries financed by large capital inflows; the credit and asset price booms and then the busts including Sudden Stops in capital flows; the strong interaction between sovereign debt and domestic banking systems; the role of foreign banks and contagion; and all in the context of a fixed exchange rate, are familiar plotlines for Latin American audiences. For those Euro-zone countries that built up large Euro-denominated external liabilities, Latin America’s experience is particularly relevant and worrisome. Still, Europe may be in a better position to navigate a path out of the crisis given cooperative mechanisms that were absent in Latin America, particularly the availability of massive liquidity support. Nonetheless, while such support buys time, it does not guarantee success. This paper argues that reflecting on Latin America’s experience provides useful lessons for Europe to improve the chances for a successful resolution.     

Fixed income conference calls

We study the determinants and the informational role of firms' fixed income conference calls, a unique form of voluntary disclosure that deviates from the traditional multi-purpose firm disclosures intended for all stakeholders. We find that fixed income calls are more likely to be held by firms that have more debt, lack credit ratings or have publicly traded equity, are foreign, or are experiencing losses. In a content analysis using a sample of public firms, we find that these calls discuss debt-equity conflict events, such as share repurchases, to a greater degree relative to a matched sample of earnings conference calls. Finally, we document that credit markets react to these calls, consistent with the calls providing investors new information. Overall, these results are consistent with fixed income calls meeting the differential informational demands of debt versus equity investors.     

Audit opinion and earnings management: Evidence from Greece

This study examines the relationship between audit opinions and earnings management, as measured by discretionary accruals, for listed firms on the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). We divide the qualified audit opinions into two categories: qualified for the going-concern uncertainty and qualified for other reasons. The results indicate that audit opinions are not related to earnings management. Client financial characteristics, such as profitability and size are determinants of the going-concern audit opinion decision. The decision of auditors to issue qualified opinions for other reasons is explained by the type of audit opinion issued in the previous year.     

基于宏观资产负债表的居民债务问题及其风险研究

本文从宏观资产负债表的编制出发,对比世界主要经济体的居民债务演变,有效度量中国居民部门的债务杠杆水平。通过宏观部门经济间的关联,构造基于存量-流量一致的部门结构化均衡模型,剖析居民部门债务风险的传导机制,分析货币、财政和地产政策在居民债务风险防范中的作用。结果表明:中国居民部门金融资产负债率和偿债比例偏高,偿债压力逐步加大。但适中的资产负债率和较高的潜在经济增速为我国居民部门债务风险的化解提供了足够的空间。紧缩性货币政策有利于居民部门去杠杆化,但由此引发的消费减速和经济下行将导致企业和政府部门债务攀升;减税较政府直接支出更能激发消费内需、降低居民和企业债务杠杆,同时,长期经济的好转利于政府债务风险稳定。紧缩性地产政策虽然有助于长期经济结构的调整,但需防范短期经济下滑。     

CEOs versus CFOs: Incentives and corporate policies

We undertake a broad-based study of the effect of managerial risk-taking incentives on corporate financial policies and show that the risk-taking incentives of chief executive officers (CEOs) and chief financial officers (CFOs) significantly influence their firms’ financial policies. In particular, we find that CEOs’ risk-decreasing (-increasing) incentives are associated with lower (higher) leverage and higher (lower) cash balances. CFOs’ risk-decreasing (-increasing) incentives are associated with safer (riskier) debt-maturity choices and higher (lower) earnings-smoothing through accounting accruals. We exploit the stock option expensing regulation of 2004 to establish a causal link between managerial incentives and corporate policies. Our findings have important implications for optimal corporate compensation design.     

我国医药产业融资模式、问题与对策——基于全国57家医药上市企业的分析

资金匮乏已成为制约我国医药产业发展壮大的一个重要因素。本文基于对我国57家医药上市公司融资状况的分析发现,2007年我国医药企业的平均融资总额在23亿元左右。从融资结构来看,股权融资已成为医药企业融资的重要方式;从融资期限来看,医药企业以短期债务融资为主,在对医药产业融资存在问题进行分析的基础上,我们认为应该通过以下方面来促进我国医药产业的融资发展：建立多元化的融资渠道,降低企业融资成本;改变医药企业的短期融资倾向,鼓励发行中长期公司债券;通过产权市场来促进医药企业融资;加大对基础研究方面的投入．设立医药风险投资机构和风险投资基全。