我国纺织品服装产业国际竞争力的实证分析

文章分析了我国纺织品服装产业发展现状及其特点,运用国际市场占有率(MS)、贸易竞争力指数(TC)、显性比较优势(RCA)三项指标对我国纺织品服装产业的国际竞争力进行实证分析研究表明:我国纺织品服装产业具有一定的国际竞争力,但随着原料价格、人工成本不断上扬,产品价格却难以上涨,企业利润空间在压缩,我国纺织品服装产业的国际竞争力在不断趋弱;在此基础上,提出了提高我国纺织品服装产业国际竞争力的对策建议。     

路径依赖对公司数字创业的抑制及免疫机制研究

路径依赖是在位企业实现数字创业面临的必然挑战，而对企业如何有效利用内外部资源克服路径依赖，现有研究并未形成明确的观点。基于组织免疫理论，遵循抑制—免疫分析思路，从战略联盟和资源拼凑内外视角探究公司数字创业中克服路径依赖的免疫机制。实证结果表明，路径依赖对公司数字创业具有显著抑制作用；战略联盟与资源拼凑均能够对路径依赖的抑制作用产生免疫效应，但针对路径依赖的3个表现维度，战略联盟与资源拼凑发挥的免疫效应存在显著差异。     

系统性风险与企业财务危机预警——基于前沿机器学习的新视角

本文采用Logit回归模型以及随机森林模型、梯度提升模型等前沿机器学习方法,深入考察系统性风险指标对我国企业财务危机的预测能力。结果表明,系统性风险对中下游企业的财务危机具有显著的预测能力,而基于因子分析构建的系统性风险指标,结合随机森林模型可取得更好的预测效果。本文进一步区分财务危机的不同成因并发现,基于随机森林模型和Logit回归模型的预测框架能够对我国大多数财务危机事件进行有效预警。在此基础上,本文对我国上市企业监管提出相关建议,从而为完善金融风险处置机制提供一定参考。     

ESG,risk, and (tail) dependence

While environmental, social, and governance (ESG) trading activity has been a distinctive feature of financial markets, the debate if ESG scores can also convey information regarding a company’s riskiness remains open. Regulatory authorities, such as the European Banking Authority (EBA), have acknowledged that ESG factors can contribute to risk. Therefore, it is important to model such risk dependencies and quantify what part of a company’s riskiness can be attributed to the ESG scores. This paper aims to question whether ESG scores can be used to provide information on (tail) riskiness. By analyzing the (tail) dependence structure of companies with a range of ESG scores, that is within an ESG rating class, using high-dimensional vine copula modeling, we are able to show that risk can also depend on and be directly associated with a specific ESG rating class. Empirical findings on real-world data show positive not negligible ESG risks determined by ESG scores, especially during the 2008 crisis.     

Spillovers and directional predictability between international energy commodities and their implications for optimal portfolio and hedging

This study sheds a new light on the dependence and the directional predictability between eight major energy price returns, using the Cross-Quantilogram (CQ) and the Partial CQ (PCQ) analysis. The energy prices cover the time series for the U.S. natural gas and seven internationally traded crude oil types. The results reveal a significant directional predictability running from most of energy commodities returns to the OPEC basket and the very light Tapis crude oil returns. However, the quantile predictability in both directions is enabled only for the relations between the light Brent and the light WTI, and between the OPEC basket and the Malaysian Tapis. The time-varying predictability analysis reveals that there is a significant upper quantile dependence between these international energy commodities. Finally, we find that the TAPIS can be a good hedging vehicle for other energy markets. These findings may be instructive for both policymakers (in terms of financial stability) and market participants (in terms of performance).     

尾部风险研究进展与评述

由于部分业务、部门或市场的尾部风险溢出不仅会引发金融体系的“多米诺骨牌”效应,而且会对实体经济产生巨大负外部性,因此尾部风险事件极易引起金融市场震荡。鉴于此,识别与监测尾部风险是有效防控系统性金融风险爆发与传染的起点。本文首先以全球金融危机为节点,根据文献厘清尾部风险测度指标在危机前后的脉络。其次,介绍与尾部风险传染密切相关的尾部风险相依、金融关联网络的相关研究进展,在此基础上对尾部风险溢出强度及溢出方向展开讨论。再次,本文归纳了引发尾部风险溢出的宏观、中观和微观层面的影响因素以及尾部风险管理的路径选择。最后,对当前及未来尾部风险相关研究进行评述与展望。据此,力求为我国进一步提高防范化解金融风险能力、统筹推进疫情防控和经济社会发展、促进国民经济稳健运行和良性循环提供借鉴。     

环境不确定情境下组织韧性影响路径、作用机制与应对策略研究

韧性作为探究组织—环境互动机理的方法，有助于企业在逆境中化危为机、借机成势。基于过程视角，打开环境不确定情境下组织韧性响应的“黑箱”,构建“暴露期(激活韧性)—发展期(调动韧性)—恢复期(发挥韧性)”研究框架。研究发现：环境作为企业的信息源和资源池，不确定性通过信息认知和资源依赖两条路径影响组织韧性；为应对环境不确定性，组织韧性通过探测机制和缓冲机制降低信息模糊，进而突破资源瓶颈。因此，应综合判断企业外部环境状况和组织自身禀赋，选择适应、更新和突破3种组织韧性应对策略。     

广州高新技术产业发展与“路径依赖”的转换

高新技术产业已发展成为广州重要的支柱产业,但由于产业起步的“路径依赖”局限,目前广州高新技术产业发展的瓶颈制约已十分明显,要进一步推动高新技术产业加快发展,必须依靠引入内生增长动力因子——科技原创因素,建立独立的科技研发能力,逐步改变原来的“路径依赖”,形成“技术引进”和“自主原创”并重的内外源结合型的发展新模式。