基于组合预测模型的我国能源需求预测分析

本文根据预测理论,结合我国历年能源消费的相关数据,分别采用多元线性回归方法、灰色预测、指数模型方法建立我国能源需求的单项预测模型,并对各单项模型的结果进行分析比较和检验,然后采用误差平方和最小法进行权重分配,建立了我国未来能源需求量的组合预测模型,最后,应用该模型对我国未来10年的能源需求量进行预测,结果表明：组合预测的精度要远远优于单项预测;我国未来10年的能源需求仍呈现较快的增长趋势。     

Endogenous economic freedom and the wealth of nations: evidence from a panel of countries, 1996–2011

Indexes of economic freedom measure the degree to which the policies and institutions of countries are supportive of economic freedom. The authors find a considerable scope for improvement in Index of Economic Freedom, created by Heritage Foundation, since not all components of index have equal effect on economic well-being. Contrary to Heritage methodology the authors tackle the aggregation bias and highlight that each index component contributes differently to the level of economic freedom and subsequently to the level of income per capita. The level of fiscal freedom and monetary freedom exert the strongest influence on the overall index of economic freedom. Authors present the new endogenous cross-country ranking of 135 countries from Instrumental Variable-Two Stage Least Squares (IV-2SLS) empirical specification which removes the inconsistencies arising from the arbitrary assumption of the equivalent effect of each component on the overall index and, hence, the level of real income per capita.     

Efficiency and productivity of the food and beverage listed firms in the pre-recession and recessionary periods in Greece

This study uses data envelopment analysis to examine the liquidity and sales efficiency of the Food and Beverage listed firms in Athens Exchange in the period 2006–2012. The liquidity efficiency of the firms is higher than the sales efficiency but the results indicate that there are not statistical significant differences in the rankings estimated by the two models in each period. The Malmquist Productivity Index reveals that over the period of the study, firms have experienced an annual average increase in productivity of 0.5% (a slight progress). On examining the components of this productivity change, it becomes evident that firms have experienced an annual average of 2% increase in technology combined with a decrease in technical efficiency of –1.5%. The results indicate that 52.4% of the firms experienced productivity gains in the examined period, and this was mainly the result of technological gain rather than efficiency improvement. More than 90% of the firms in the sample shift the efficiency frontier and only 33.3% of the firms are catching up, improving their productivity by reducing inefficiency. Moreover, the empirical study reveals that the overall technical inefficiencies of the firms are primarily caused by pure technical inefficiencies rather than scale inefficiencies.     

The effects of oil price shocks on expenditure category CPI

In this study, we apply a two-block structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model proposed by Kilian and Park (2009) in order to investigate the dynamic effects of changes in oil price on the expenditure category consumer price index (CPI) in the United States and Japan. Our results confirm that each expenditure category price index responded very differently to the same structural shock, and that whether changes in oil price function as a positive stimulus or a negative shock for the individual expenditure category prices also depends on the kind of underlying shock that drives the changes in oil price. Finally, our results also reveal that the manner in which changes in oil price affect each expenditure category price differs between the United States and Japan and these detailed-level differences may lead to aggregate-level differences in the price response of both countries to changes in oil price.     

From real estate to consumption: the role of credit markets in the USA

The aim of this article is to test whether the credit market conditions affect the strength of transmission of real estate wealth effects on household consumption in the US economy. Although many different works have dealt with the analysis of the existence of a real estate wealth effect, most of them as a reaction to the dramatic increase of housing prices in several OECD countries, there are only few papers analysing whether the consumption response depends on the positive or negative sign of the wealth shock and, as far as we know, none of them takes the effects of credit market conditions on that asymmetric response into account. This article tries to fill the existing gap in the literature on this matter. From an econometric perspective, we estimate the asymmetries in the consumption response within the momentum threshold autoregressive model (M-TAR) proposed by Enders and Siklos (2001), but following Stevans (2004), it is applied to a multivariate framework. The main results show that the credit market conditions play a significant role in the transmission of changes in real estate wealth to consumption. In addition, we find that there exists an asymmetric behaviour in the US aggregate consumption spending responses to real estate wealth and credit market shocks, which is only significant when a negative shock takes place.     

Does the evidence on corruption depend on how it is measured? Results from a cross-country study on microdata sets

While much of the existing literature on corruption looks at the effect of corruption on macro variables such as growth rates and income distribution, this study provides a departure by focussing on victims of corruption by using microdata to compare civilian and business corruption. This study finds that businesses face a stronger incidence of bribe demands than individuals. Though there are several differences between the determinants of the two forms of bribe victimization, there are also some similarities. Policies to combat corruption need to take into account both the differences and the similarities.     

Long memory and fractional integration in the housing price series of London and Paris

This article deals with the analysis of house price indexes from a long-range dependence viewpoint. In particular, it estimates the fractional differencing parameter in the London and Paris house price series recognizing in some cases the potential seasonality and allowing for breaks in the data. Moreover, it analyses the stability of the parameters across the sample period examined. It is concluded that the series are nonstationary but mean reverting in some cases and very persistent in others. Policy implications are derived.     

中国创意产品及创意相关产品的国际竞争力研究——基于RCA指数和TC指数的实证分析

根据联合国贸易和发展会议创意经济数据库2002-2010年的数据,分析了我国创意产品及创意相关产品的进出口额、国际市场份额及主要贸易伙伴,并对我国创意产品及创意相关产品的RCA指数和TC指数进行定量研究,发现我国创意产品及创意相关产品的国际贸易竞争力总体较强,但存在着出口市场过于集中、贸易结构较为单一和文化科技含量低、核心竞争力不足的缺陷,认为通过解放思想、创造宽容的文化氛围和创意环境,充分利用和开发我国丰富的历史文化资源、积极开展对外文化交流和不断开拓新的国际市场将有助于提高我国创意产业的发展以及创意产品和创意相关产品的国际竞争力.     

Advertising Effectiveness of Different Media in Promoting Technology-Oriented Ideas among Young Consumers: A Multidimensional Study

Historically, media choice criteria have mostly been company driven. This article offers a four-dimensional 17-item media effectiveness assessment index as perceived by young consumers. The methodology of the study is based on quantitative data collected from 1,257 respondents in Bangladesh. Radio was rated best in six out of 17 criteria whereas TV and billboard were found to be the second choice. Radio was found to be the most effective medium in creating purchase intention. As the study didn’t find complete domination by any single medium, the paper recommends a mixed-media strategy while dealing with young consumers.     

科技创新与服务外包产业升级的关联弹性研究 ——基于创新城市与服务外包示范城市的数据分析

服务外包产业升级是以高科技、高附加值的高端服务及研发环节转移为主要特征的全球产业结构升级的必然趋势。基于服务外包产业知识密集型的产业特点,本文从科技创新的视角,选取全国服务外包示范城市与创新城市的交叉样本作为研究对象,通过主成分分析法以及逐步回归法确定了影响服务外包产业升级的重要科技创新因素,包括企业R&D经费支出占产品销售收入比重和人均GDP,具有潜在驱动倾向的科技创新因素包括大专院校在校学生数、专业技术人员占就业人员比重、R&D经费支出与GDP比例等。在此基础上,本文通过构建回归方程,计算分析自变量的弹性灵敏度指数,根据计算结果提出应从挖掘专业人才潜力、增加科技投入强度等方面推动服务外包产业的升级。