环境艺术设计“课题制“教学模式实验

本文结合教学实践,就环境艺术设计教学中实施"课题制"教学模式进行了探索,着重对"课题制"教学模式的基本认识和运用进行了论述。     

基于贝叶斯网络的咨询公司ERP咨询项目风险评估

针对咨询公司ERP咨询项目风险的特点和风险定量评估要求,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的ERP咨询项目风险评估方法。在风险辨识的基础上,根据风险之间的相关性,建立了贝叶斯风险网络模型;依赖领域专家的主观判断并借助项目经验确定网络中的概率参数,通过专家信息融合克服主观判断的缺陷;运用贝叶斯网络推理工具定量估计风险的发生概率及其影响,进一步评估风险强度并对其进行排序,以确定整个网络图中各风险的控制优先级。最后通过实例验证该方法的有效性。     

管理时尚研究

管理时尚具有操作性强、以偏概全等特点,对它们的需求与供给形成了管理时尚市场.其生命周期曲线呈钟形且是一条长波伴随着一系列短波.若将其国内外传播进行综合考虑,则将呈现出一种雁形模式.由于传统文化的含蓄性与抽象性,中国基本没有管理时尚.目前我国企业面临着大量管理时尚的冲击而不知所措,因此有必要对管理时尚进行比较系统的研究.     

Explaining Real Commercial Rents Using an Error Correction Model with Panel Data

This paper presents rent models for retail and office property in the United Kingdom. Panel data are used covering eleven regions for 29 years, enabling us to overcome the limitations of a relatively short time series. We use an error correction model (ECM) framework to estimate long-run equilibrium relationships and short-term dynamic corrections. The combination of panel data and an ECM is an innovative approach that is still being developed in economics. We construct new supply series that combine infrequent stock data with more frequent construction data. Separate regional models are estimated for retail and office properties. The regions are then combined into a number of panels on the basis of the income and price elasticities in the long-run and short-run models. Unlike previous studies, we find no evidence of a board north–south divide between low growth and high growth regions. Like these studies we do find a London effect: in London, demand elasticities for space with respect to both price (rent) and income are much lower in magnitude. We conclude that, while the economic drivers may vary, there is no evidence of differences in the operation of the regional property markets outside London. Elasticities for retail and office are similar. Our final models are parsimonious with single measures of economic activity and of supply and always support the use of an ECM.     

Aging and Retirement: Evidence Across Countries

How do demographic factors influence retirement? Using a large cross-country data set, I show that in countries with a larger share of elderly in their population the length of retirement is longer. This result holds true if I control for wealth effects, and when the effective labor force participation rate of the elderly is used instead of the official retirement age. Retirement policies and the social security size are strictly related: a new variable, representing the aggregate relevance of retirement policies, turns out to be significant in explaining the size of social security. Finally, the total amount of social security transfers is positively related with the increase of the elderly population, while in per capita terms this relation is not significant.     

供需链管理思想和ERP整合在电解铝生产企业的应用

本文对电解铝生产企业的生产方式和特点进行了剖析，分析了供需链管理思想和ERP整合的特点和应用范围，在此基础上提出了针对电解铝生产企业的整合供需链管理和ERP的信息系统模型，基于这一模型构建了一个完整的信息系统实例——山西恒裕铝业HY-ERP并投入了实际应用。