上市公司主业鲜明率的修正方法

指出了常用的主业鲜明率在实际使用中遇到的问题,主要问题是计算值会出现无意义的结果,并且对真实主营业务比率的反映会有不真实的情况,提出了修正的方法,即通过修正企业经营总体规模的方法进行修正,最后通过实际计算证明修正结果消除了无意义的结果,也更加真实地反映了主营业务的比率.     

Estimating exchange rate dynamics with diffusion processes: an application to Greek EMU data

Recently various exchange rate models capturing the dynamics during the transition from an exchange rate arrangement of floating rates into a currency union have been derived. Technically, these stochastic equilibrium models are diffusion processes which have to be estimated by discretely sampled observations. Using daily exchange rate data prior to the Greek EMU-entrance on 1 January 2001, we develop a rigorous estimation procedure. Our estimates point to an increasing interventionist economic policy in the run-up to the Greek EMU entrance. A comparison of this econometric indication with policy information provided (ex-post) by the Bank of Greece (BoG) in its Annual Report 2000 reveals that the BoG indeed pursued such an active policy stance (so-called institutional frontloading strategies).      

泡沫前后的政府政策选择

在经济全球化的背景下,金融资本的国际化流动不断加强,促成了国际金融市场的联动性和互相影响程度不断加强.而金融市场的迅速发展和资产证券化程度的提高,使得金融对于经济的渗透程度和影响程度加大.伴随着经济周期的扩张和收缩,相应资产价格的泡沫的形成和破灭的过程也对经济产生巨大的影响,政府在这样的不同周期阶段的政策选择对于平滑经济和金融市场风险显得十分重要.文章作者试图探讨政府在泡沫形成期和泡沫破灭期的理性政策选择.     

中国固定资产投资的影响因素分析

本文以古典投资理论、加速数理论、预期利润理论以及政治周期理论等相关投资理论为基础,分析了投资活动的决定因素,并结合我国实际建立了一个包括国民产出、利润率、利率和中央政府换届等多个解释变量的多元线性回归模型.本文采用1980-2009年期间中国的固定资产投资总额等相关数据,对各种投资理论假说进行实证检验.回归结果证实了投资与产出之间存在正相关关系,支持投资的加速数假说;估计结果还表明投资与利润率之间存在正相关关系,证实了投资的预期利润假说;但实际利率和中央领导换届这两个解释变量均未通过显著性检验.研究还发现我国的投资富有产出弹性远大于利润率弹性,最后就政府调节投资水平给出相应的政策含义.     

中国利率期限结构的非线性动态调整:基于MS-VECM模型的研究途径

基于MS-VECM模型对预期理论调整作用下的中国利率期限结构非线性动态过程进行的实证研究,结果表明:预期理论在中国利率期限结构中是成立的;中国利率期限结构具有两区制的非线性动态特征,可以按预期理论的调整强度将两种区制分别描述为"强调整区制"与"弱调整区制";不同期限利率的平均变动幅度和平均风险溢价水平会随区制状态变化而发生变化,具有区制相依性,区制间的转移具有非对称性;利率期限结构与物价压力的非线性区制划分具有相似性,物价波动是利率期限结构非线性动态变化的重要原因。     

两税合并、税收筹划与盈余管理方式选择

文章以2007年的两税合并为背景,研究上市公司出于税收筹划的目的如何选择盈余管理方式。研究发现,税率下降公司由于税率下降幅度较大,税收筹划收益较高,因此进行了显著向下的应计盈余管理,而没有选择真实盈余管理方式;而税率上升公司则由于存在5年的过渡期,税收筹划收益较低,因此既没有进行显著的应计盈余管理,也没有进行显著的真实盈余管理。这意味着上市公司在进行税收筹划时会综合权衡各种避税方式的成本收益,进而选择最合适的避税方式。政府部门在制定税收政策时必须预先考虑企业可能的税收筹划策略,以达到预期的政策效果。     

汇率决定理论的发展与前沿述评

汇率决定问题是国际金融领域的一个重要命题,其间得到不断地丰富和发展。本文对汇率决定理论的发展脉络、内容、前沿作系统性地概述,并作出精要地评判。文章指出汇率行为的复杂性将是汇率决定理论研究的一个方向,非线性分析工具将成为汇率行为研究的主要手段。     

Nonlinearity and time-variation in the monetary model of exchange rates

In this paper we analyze the existence of nonlinear relationships between macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rates for some major industrialized countries using an error correction model with time-varying parameters for the post Bretton Woods period. We find that inflation rate differentials with respect to the US inflation rate are the driving forces for the nonlinear relationships in the monetary model for exchange rates for the data from Germany, the UK, Canada, France and Italy. In addition to the variables in the traditional monetary model, also the relative interest rates are relevant in determining exchange rate changes only when the inflation differentials are either very large or very small. In contrast to previous studies we find significant long-run effects in the error correction representation of the monetary model for exchange rates when the nonlinear dynamics is taken into account in the analysis.     

基于期权思想的融券费率定价方法研究

证券融资融券交易是成熟证券市场普遍实施的一种交易制度。融券与融资不同,其标的不是资金而是证券,但两者都是信用业务,需要为相关交易支付一定的费用,融资的利率相对容易确定,而融券费率则比较复杂一些,目前各类管理规定中对此并没有明确的说法。本文借鉴了我国台湾地区的经验,计算出我国大陆地区试行融资融券可行的融券费率。     

Cryptocurrencies and Cagan’s model of hyperinflation

The drivers of the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum are studied within a framework based on Cagan’s model of hyperinflation. In the model, the prices of the cryptocurrencies are driven by stochastic adoption and velocity shocks as well as endogenous expectations of future prices. The model is estimated with data for prices, transaction volumes, and money supplies. A majority of price fluctuations in both currencies can be attributed to shocks in adoption, velocity shocks are much less important. The money demand sensitivity to expected price changes is estimated to be larger for Bitcoin than for Ethereum, and both have higher sensitivity than fiat currencies during episodes of hyperinflation.