THE INFLUENCE OF FUNDAMENTALS ON EXCHANGE RATES: FINDINGS FROM ANALYSES OF NEWS EFFECTS

Abstract As we survey the literature of macroeconomic news in the foreign exchange market, we can by now look back on nearly 30 years of research. The first studies which analysed news effects on exchange rates were established in the early 1990s (see, for example, Dornbusch). Almost at the same time Meese and Rogoff published their influential paper, revealing the forecasting inferiority in exchange rates of structural models against the random walk. This finding has shocked the pillars of exchange rate economics and thus cast general suspicion on research focusing on fundamentals in this field. The eventual rising popularity of event studies can partly be attributed to the re‐establishment of the raison d’être of exchange rate economics. This work focuses on systematically surveying this literature with particular respect to its primary goal, i.e. shedding light on the analytical value of fundamental research. Thus, its major findings are, first, fundamental news does matter, whereas non‐fundamental news matters to a lesser degree. Second, news influences exchange rates via two separated channels, i.e. incorporating common information into prices directly or indirectly based upon order flow. Third, with a few exceptions the impact of fundamental news on exchange rates is fairly stable over time.     

Central bank transparency and financial market expectations: The case of emerging markets

In this paper, we study how central bank transparency influences the formation of money market expectations in emerging markets. The sample covers 25 countries for the period from January 1998 to December 2009. We find, first, that transparency reduces the bias (the difference between the money market rate and the weighted expected target rate over the contract period) in money market expectations. The effect is larger for countries with no exchange rate peg and countries with low income. Second, an intermediate level of transparency is found to have the most favorable influence on money market expectations: neither complete secrecy nor complete transparency is optimal. Finally, all subcategories of the Eijffinger and Geraats (2006) index lead to a smaller bias in expectations, with political transparency having the largest effect.     

国外环境税问题研究进展

对国外学者关于环境税收问题研究的新成果进行综述。诠释最优环境税定义及探寻不同条件假设下最优环境税率的确定,从一般均衡的视角考察环境质量对劳动供给决策的影响,探讨税收相互作用的效应和分析学者重点研究的双重红利及其存在条件。最后根据发达国家环境税政策运行的经验,分析将环境税作为环境管制措施引入发展中国家的可行性。     

Revisiting the theory of optimum currency areas: Is the CFA franc zone sustainable?

This paper aims at explaining why the CFA countries have successfully maintained a currency union for several decades, despite failing to meet many of optimum currency area criteria. We suggest that the CFA zone, while not optimal, has been at least sustainable. We test this sustainability hypothesis by relying on the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach. In particular, we assess and compare the convergence process of real exchange rates towards equilibrium for the CFA zone countries and a sample of other sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Our findings evidence that internal and external balances have been fostered and adjustments facilitated in the CFA zone as a whole—compared to other SSA countries—as well as in each of its member countries.     

Analysis of travel behavior in Arab communities in Israel: a comparison of household surveys

This paper analyzes the main characteristics of travel behavior by the Arab minority community in Israel and discusses two issues related to household travel surveys: data collection among minorities and under-reporting of mid-day trips.Household travel surveys are generally designed and conducted for the majority population and, therefore, lack a proper accounting of minorities and miss many of their less-frequent trips. An alternative approach to conducting household surveys is presented, with the aim of improving data quality for transportation planning. The survey was designed for and conducted in three Arab towns in Israel. The main improvement of the survey involves better interaction between interviewer and interviewee, which should materialize into a relaxed environment that allows for obtaining detailed, reliable results within a reasonable amount of time.The results of the survey employing the alternative approach were compared to a sub-sample of the same towns taken from a regional survey conducted by the regional planning agency at the same time. The paper presents simple statistics on the main variables for each survey. Significant differences are found in the two data sets, mostly regarding the frequency of less frequent, non-home-based trips. A plausible explanation for these differences relates to the more detailed and improved data collected in the new survey.     

Productivity,Demand, and Regulated Price Effects Revisited: An Analysis of the Real Bilateral Exchange Rates of Four New EU Member States

This paper examines the behavior of internal price ratios and bilateral real exchange rates of a group of four new EU member states-Estonia, Hungary, Slovakia, and Slovenia. We employ a dynamic ordinary least squares panel estimator to investigate the relative importance of demand and supply influences on the internal and external exchange rates of these countries. Our analysis shows that both supply- and demand-side effects are important, though supply-side effects dominate. The paper also examines the role that administrated or regulated prices and the productivity of the distribution sector play in real exchange rate dynamics. We show that administrated prices have been a powerful force behind price and real exchange developments for our group of accession countries.     

随机利率下的复合Poisson-Geometric风险模型及破产概率

本文主要研究的是在随机利率下保费收入为复合Poisson-Geometric过程的风险模型,在随机利率为levy过程的情况下,得到了破产概率满足的积分方程,以及得到最终破产概率的上下界所满足的积分不等式,以此作为保险公司经营的预警信号更具有现实意义。     

Tourism Market Recovery in the Maldives After the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami

SUMMARY

This paper will use a range of tourism data and a case study to examine the rates of recovery of ten source markets for the Maldives in the wake of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The market response and recovery rates for these ten markets varied significantly and the reasons for this will be explored. It is evident that a 'one size fits all' marketing strategy will not in itself be sufficient to achieve acceptable rates of recovery following a disaster. The strategies, opportunities and rates of market recovery experienced in the Maldives will provide useful insights for the marketing and monitoring of other destinations that have experienced a crisis or disaster.     

Strategic behavior in financial markets

We describe a financial market as a noncooperative game in strategic form. Agents may borrow or deposit money at a central bank and use the cash available to them in order to purchase a commodity for immediate consumption. They derive positive utility from consumption and from having cash reserves at the end of the day, whereas being bankrupt entails negative utility. The bank fixes interest rates. The existence of Nash equilibria (both mixed and pure) of the ensuing game is proved under various assumptions. In particular, no agent is bankrupt at equilibrium. Asymptotic behavior of replica markets is discussed, and it is shown that given appropriate assumptions, the difference between a strategic player and a price taker is negligible in a large economy.