空置税：取代物业税的一种思路

近期，社会各界对物业税应否进入政府操作层面的争论再度升温。剖析物业税可能带来的矛盾与问题，可得出以空置税取代物业税的思路：一方面，空置税可以吸收国际上利用物业税有效调控房地产市场的成功经验，发挥物业税的积极作用；另一方面，空置税可以避免在我国当前客观实际情况下开征物业税可能带来的种种弊端。     

我国CPI持续上涨情况下加息可能性分析

今年以来,CPI的持续上涨,在8月份创下近22各月以来的新高,引发各界对央行加息可能性的热议,本文正是在分析CPI持续上涨因素的情况下,探究央行加息问题。     

Container freight rates and the role of surcharges

This paper demonstrates that the structure of ocean container freight rates has become more complex. A growing number of surcharges are being imposed by the carriers on their customers, surcharges that are not only adding significant extra costs but are highly variable over time. These elements are examined based on a data set of export rates from ports on the Northern European Range that have been compiled from a major global carrier. The paper compares the surcharges to the base rates and discusses some of the implications for shippers who face increasing uncertainty in planning supply chains. Some of the issues for academic research on freight rates is also examined and points to the need to clearly identify what is included in the freight rate data employed. In addition, questions are raised concerning the suitability of many of the variables traditionally used to explain or predict freight rates.     

International house price cycles,monetary policy and credit

We evaluate three alternative predictors of house price corrections: anticipated tightenings of monetary policy, deviations of house prices from fundamentals, and rapid credit growth. A new cross-country measure of monetary policy expectations based on an international term structure model with time-varying risk premiums is constructed. House price overvaluation is estimated via an asset pricing model. The variables are incorporated into a panel logit regression model that estimates the likelihood of a large house price correction in 18 OECD countries. The results show that corrections are predicted by increases in the market’s forecast of higher policy rates. The estimated degree of house price overvaluation also contains significant information about subsequent price reversals. In contrast to the financial crisis literature, credit growth is less important. All of these variables help forecast recessions.     

Demography and pollution

In this paper, we consider an OG model with endogenous fertility and pollution externalities. We assume that pollution lowers the productivity. In the long run, under dominant income (substitution) effects, a raise in the cost of rearing children, increases (decreases) consumption and decreases (increases) pollution. In the short run, under dominant income effects, a sufficiently low pollution elasticity of labor productivity promotes deterministic cycles through a Hopf bifurcation jointly with expectations-driven fluctuations.     

Modelling the term structure of interest rates in a small emerging market economy

This paper investigates the term structure of interest rates in a small emerging market economy – the Dominican Republic. The modelling finds a significant dynamic link amongst the day-to-day interbank interest rate and a representative banking system interest rate. But the interbank rate's forecasting power breaks down in the aftermath of the 2003 banking crisis. This episode illustrates how the monetary authorities' credibility with the public and market expectations affect the term structure's reliability.     

PPP may hold better than you think: Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion in real effective exchange rates

This paper revisits some key topics in the literature on purchasing power parity (PPP). The study applies a set of newly developed unit root tests, which account for both nonlinearity and multiple smooth temporary breaks in series, to the real effective exchange rates (REERs) of 23 developed countries. The results suggest that PPP generally holds for various currency-based real rates. There is evidence in favor of linear stationarity in REERs for highly integrated economies. The REERs of most other countries tend to have nonlinear adjustment toward large long-swing type mean changes around constant equilibrium values.     

Long-run real exchange rates in the Four Little Dragons

This paper analyses changes in the exchange rate arrangements and policy and their impact on the long-run real exchange rates of the Asian Four Little Dragons. It is found that purchasing power parity is a basic guide in formulating the exchange rate policy of the Four Little Dragons and that exchange rate regimes are very responsive to the effect of major external disturbances on prices. Thus, the exchange rate policy and arrangements are important factors in shaping the behaviour of the real exchange rates of the FLDs, which tend to return to the long-run average value. To test the null hypothesis that purchasing power parity does not hold between the Four Little Dragons and the United States, two cointegration tests, the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the Johansen test, are applied. As the symmetry and proportionality conditions are not supported by the data, the tests are conducted in a trivariate system. While the ADF test does not support PPP, evidence of cointegration is found by the Johansen test.     

Financial literacy and the cost of borrowing

This research investigates the relation between financial literacy and the cost of borrowing via credit cards and mortgage loans among US consumers. This is a departure from previous studies that have focused on levels of debt in relation to human capital, either financial knowledge or education. Data from the Consumer Finance Monthly (CFM) survey are used to specifically examine the effect of financial literacy on borrowing rates for credit cards and mortgages controlling for other human capital influences. The CFM is a national survey, rich in American consumer credit information, and includes a comprehensive instrument specifically designed to measure financial literacy. Results indicate that those who are financially literate are about twice as likely to have lower costs of borrowing for both credit cards and mortgage loans.     

SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET VOLATILITY,ASYMMETRY AND RETAIL INTEREST RATES PASS‐THROUGH

The purpose of this paper is to examine the interest rate transmission mechanism for South Africa as an emerging economy in a pre‐repo and repo system. It explains how the money market rate is transmitted to the retail interest rates both in the long run and short run, and tests the symmetric and asymmetric interest rate pass‐through using the error‐correction model (ECM) and the adjusted ECM‐exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ECM‐EGARCH) (1,1)‐M methodology. This permitted the examination of the impact of interest rate volatility, along with the leverage effect. An incomplete pass‐through is found in the short run. From the entire sample period, a symmetric adjustment is found in the deposit rate, which had upward rigidity adjustment, while an asymmetric adjustment is found in the lending rate, with a downward rigidity adjustment. All the adjustments supported the collusive pricing arrangements. According to the conditional variance estimation of the ECM‐EGARCH (1,1), negative volatility impact and leverage effect are present and influential only in the symmetric deposit interest rate adjustment process in South Africa.