城中村空间的社会生产与治理机制研究——以广州市海珠区为例

城中村作为我国快速城市化进程中普遍存在的城乡过渡聚落形态,是我国改革开放以来制度变迁和社会经济体制变革的产物,浓缩着城市政府与集体经济组织、社区组织与发展商以及外来人口等社会行为主体之间的竞争、合作和冲突等种种博弈状态和过程。从城市空间政治经济学的理论出发,以城中村这一特殊类型的城市空间的社会生产为切入点,全面而系统地总结了城中村空间生产的经济基础、属性特征、类型、过程、模式和治理机制等。结论是:城中村空间的生产是制度变迁和社会行动者互动博弈的产物,城中村空间的治理必须以产权为突破口,建立合理的社会经济治理体系;以规划为龙头,加强城中村土地管理和公共服务设施的供给;以利益平衡为切入点,促进城中村社区转型和社会融合;以强化土地集约利用为引线,推动城乡空间整合。     

基于国际竞争的农业生产方式与财政信贷政策优化

本文通过中美两国主要农产品成本结构差异对竞争的影响分析,揭示了转变农业生产方式的深层原因和重要意义,从而阐明在我国必须采取全方位的财政和金融信贷政策,加快农业生产资本积累,促进农业机械和科技的应用,改进农业生产方式,增强我国粮食产品的国际竞争优势.     

出口制造业固定资产、劳动力成本与资本效率

国有和民营出口制造业相对于劳动力成本的固定资产投资反映了资本效率问题,提出的模型包括固定资产在企业总成本中所占份额的增长率变化以及相应的工人人均固定资产的变化对出口产值的影响,并部分解释了国有企业和民营企业之间出现的出口主体替代现象.我们所用的从1986～2002年的统计数据支持了得自模型的假设.     

Cointegration test of oil price and us dollar exchange rates for some oil dependent economies

This study examines the long-run dynamics between oil price and the bilateral US dollar exchange rates for a group of oil-dependent economies before and after the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crises. Exchange rates are for the euro, Indian rupee, Russian ruble, South African rand, Ghanaian cedi and the Nigerian naira. The dependence on crude oil of these economies is either because fiscal revenues are primarily reliant on oil export receipts or because industrial production is heavily dependent on petroleum. Empirical results show evidence of a long run equilibrium relationship between oil price and exchange rate, especially for currencies of the key oil-exporting countries. This relationship is more evident in the post crisis period, which is also the period when both exchange rate volatility and the inverse relationship between oil price and exchange rate experienced a significant increase.     

论张闻天关于生产关系两重性的思想

张闻天晚年针对社会主义经济建设上片面地把生产关系等同于所有关系的现象,对马克思的生产关系理论进行了追根溯源的理论梳理,从中得出了生产关系不仅有体现所有关系的属性,同时还有直接体现生产力的另一重属性的结论。在此基础上,他还具体论证了生产关系两重性的特点、内在联系和发展规律,补充和发展了马克思的生产关系理论。张闻天关于生产关系两重性的思想不仅拓展了马克思主义经济学的理论空间,而且为中国社会主义建设提供了理论指导。     

Exchange rates of oil exporting countries and global oil price shocks: a nonlinear smooth-transition approach

This paper models logistic and exponential smooth transition adjustments of real exchange rates for six major oil-exporting countries in response to different shocks affecting oil prices. The logistic form captures asymmetric and the exponential form symmetric adjustments in regards to positive and negative oil price shocks. We chose oil-exporting countries that do not peg their exchange rates. For most countries, we detect no statistically significant non-linearities for the adjustment process of real exchange rate returns, be they asymmetric or symmetric, in response to oil supply shocks, idiosyncratic oil-market-specific shocks, and speculative oil-market shocks. Exceptions are oil supply shocks in the UK and possibly Brazil, where exchange rates respond nonlinearly, though the effects are symmetric for both countries. On the other hand, global aggregate demand shocks, which are shocks not originating directly in the oil market, have nonlinear asymmetric effects on real exchange rate returns for Canada, Mexico, Norway and Russia, and nonlinear symmetric effects for Brazil and the UK.     

The Effect of Child Care Subsidies: A Critique of the Rosen Model

In an influential article, Sherwin Rosen (1997) argues that Swedish subsidies of child care services lead to a substantial misallocation of resources that slows economic growth. We offer two major reasons why Rosen's approach is flawed. First and foremost, he ignores the positive externalities of increasing the quality of child care, despite their clear relevance to his general equilibrium model. Second, he overlooks distributional impacts, despite evidence that child care subsidies redistribute the costs of children between men and women, rich and poor, young and old. By exploring these and a number of smaller problems with Rosen's model we hope to encourage the development of more systematic efforts to explore the effects of state support for child rearing.     

Targeted growth rates for long-horizon crude oil price forecasts

This paper proposes growth rate transformations with targeted lag selection in order to improve the long-horizon forecast accuracy. The method targets lower frequencies of the data that correspond to particular forecast horizons, and is applied to models of the real price of crude oil. Targeted growth rates can improve the forecast precision significantly at horizons of up to five years. For the real price of crude oil, the method can achieve a degree of accuracy up to five years ahead that previously has been achieved only at shorter horizons.     

从要素市场化看供给侧改革的中长期实践路径*——基于随机前沿模型增长核算的分析

本文从要素市场化角度分析中国供给侧改革的中长期实践路径。从经济增长核算的角度出发,本文基于2005—2013年全国分省面板数据,通过超越对数生产函数形式的随机前沿模型测算经济增长来源并分解全要素生产率,发现TFP是非农经济增长的主要来源。然而TFP分解中技术效率偏低,且逐年下降,成为阻碍TFP增长以及经济增长的一大桎梏,而要素市场扭曲是技术效率项偏低的重要原因。促进要素市场化能够推进要素向高效企业流动,进而提高社会整体生产效率水平,本文认为,这是中国供给侧结构性改革的中长期实践路径。     

Reconsidering the modernization hypothesis: The role of diversified production and interest‐group competition

The modernization hypothesis attributes democracy to higher incomes. The hypothesis has been controversial with claims of no relationship or opposite causality. Using data on a large sample of countries over the period from 1995 to 2015, we show empirically that the hypothesis is valid by studying the role of diversified production and interest-group competition. Increases in income associated with production diversification foster the emergence of competing organized interest groups representing the different diversified sectors. The interest-group competition underlies democracy by restraining rent seeking for benefits that would otherwise be sought through single-decision-maker authoritarian government.