Food,farmers, and the future: Investigating prospects of increased food production within a national context

With international food price shocks in 2008 and 2011, food security became a political priority in many countries. In addition, some politicians have recently adopted a more nationalistic stance. Against that background, this paper critically investigates the prospects of increased food production within a national context. We use a small, high-income country, Norway, as an empirical case. In 2012, the government set a goal of increasing agricultural food production by 20% by 2030. We ask: 1) How has food production in Norway developed before and after the goal was set? 2) What plans do farmers have, and what do they regard as the main obstacles to increased production? We apply a mixed method combining public statistics, a survey, and interviews. We analyze four production systems: a) milk; b) grass-based meat; c) combined pig and grain; and d) grain. These systems represent around 80% of the domestically consumed food produced on farms in Norway. Since 2000, aggregate food production has had a slight downward trend with periodic fluctuations. Based on a political economy approach, we identify land and labor as the most limiting factors. Capital is less of a hindrance and offers a potential for increased production. Farmers have modest expectations of increased production, though. This outlook resonates with the strong integration of agriculture into the wider economy, at both micro and macro levels, making it challenging to implement new policies and change farm practices on a broad basis. Increases in some specific products, however, are realistic.     

Determining factors and impacts of the intention to adopt mobile banking app in Cameroon: Case of SARA by afriland First Bank

This study aims to know what are the factors determining the adoption of M-Banking app among customers in Cameroon. In other words, what are the factors that influence users in their decisions to adopt and use a system or technology such as the MBanking app, and indirectly, what is the impact of this use on both the customers and financial inclusion? The research model developed relying on a combination of Technology Acceptance Model (TAM ), Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology ( UTAUT2 ), Information System Success Model ( ISSM ), and Protection Motivation Theory ( PMT ) and other constructs; it was then tested with a sample of 223 users of the “ SARA” M-Banking app of the financial institution called “ Afriland First Bank” . Findings revealed that: (1) utilitarian expectation, hedonic motivation, and status gain, habit, and perceived privacy concern have a significant influence on the intention to adopt M-Banking apps; and (2) the exploitative/explorative use of this technology has an impact on user’s loyalty and satisfaction but also contributes strongly to fostering financial inclusion in Cameroon. Also, the Multi-group analysis was performed on the sample using 2 gender-based groups (males, n=121; females, n=102).     

Optimal social security tax with myopic agents

Myopic agents lack the foresight to save for their own old age. It is generally believed that correcting myopia is a rationale for a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system. This view has been supported by existing literature showing that the optimal PAYG social security tax should increase when people are more myopic. In this paper we obtain new results opposed to the traditional view. By establishing a very standard general equilibrium OLG model with myopic agents and endogenized marginal product of capital, we show that the optimal social security tax should be lower when people are more myopic. Our numerical analysis also shows that the welfare cost of the social security tax increases with people's degree of myopia. These results suggest that correcting myopia is not a clear rationale for the PAYG social security.     

The long-run reversal in the long run: Insights from two centuries of international equity returns

We perform the most comprehensive test of long-term reversal in national equity indices ever done. Having examined data from 71 countries for the years 1830 through 2019, we demonstrate a strong reversal pattern: the past long-term return negatively predicts future performance. The phenomenon is not subsumed by other established cross-sectional return patterns, including the value effect. The long-term reversal is robust to many considerations but highly unstable through time. Finally, our findings support the overreaction explanation of this anomaly.     

Food insecurity,gender, and international migration in low- and middle-income countries

The determinants of migration have been widely studied but research has rarely addressed the roles of food insecurity and gender in the migration decision process. To address these gaps, we examine these relationships for 135,078 individuals across 94 low- and middle-income countries. We use a series of binary-choice models with sample selection and data from the 2014–2015 waves of the Gallup World Poll Survey, which includes the first global measure of individual-level food insecurity. Results, which are robust, indicate that food insecurity is an important determinant of both migration intentions and preparations, and the probability of migration intentions increase monotonically with the severity of food insecurity, and the probability of migration preparations decrease. These relationships also differ significantly by gender and level of gross national income. Evidence suggests a need for increased coordination between the international food security and migration policy agendas.     

Social protection for enhanced food security in sub-Saharan Africa

This paper identifies several positive synergies between social protection programmes and enhanced entitlements to food. One function of social protection is to manage or reduce vulnerability. Several instruments are reviewed – weather-indexed insurance, public works programmes, emergency food aid and buffer stock management – which aim to stabilise income and access to food across good and bad years, or between the harvest and the hungry season. Other social protection instruments aim to raise household income and crop production, for instance agricultural input subsidies or input trade fairs, as well as public works projects that construct or maintain physical infrastructure such as rural feeder roads. This paper also argues that entitlements to food can be strengthened if social justice principles are introduced to the design and delivery of social protection programmes. Examples reviewed include rights-based approaches such as employment guarantee schemes, community-based targeting and demand-driven accountability mechanisms. The paper concludes by arguing for a comprehensive approach to social protection that will achieve sustainable food security, by combining interventions that stabilise income or food production with those that raise income or food production, and are designed and delivered in ways that enhance social justice.     

Integrating retirement and permanent disability in NDC pension schemes

In this article, we develop a theoretical basis for integrating retirement and permanent disability using a generic nonfinancial defined contribution framework. The methodology we use relies on a multistate overlapping generations model that includes the so-called survivor dividend. Currently, this feature can only be found in the Swedish defined contribution (DC) scheme. The results achieved in the numerical example we present endorse the fact that the model works well. Special attention is given to the assumptions made about mortality rates for disabled people and disability incidence rates, which largely determine the contribution rate assigned to disability. The model could be of interest to policymakers because, after some adaptations, it could be implemented without too much difficulty and would uncover the real cost of disability and minimize the risk of disability insurance being used as a vote-buying mechanism.     

Managing security risks for inter-organisational information systems: a multiagent collaborative model

Information sharing across organisations is critical to effectively managing the security risks of inter-organisational information systems. Nevertheless, few previous studies on information systems security have focused on inter-organisational information sharing, and none have studied the sharing of inferred beliefs versus factual observations. In this article, a multiagent collaborative model (MACM) is proposed as a practical solution to assess the risk level of each allied organisation’s information system and support proactive security treatment by sharing beliefs on event probabilities as well as factual observations. In MACM, for each allied organisation’s information system, we design four types of agents: inspection agent, analysis agent, control agent, and communication agent. By sharing soft findings (beliefs) in addition to hard findings (factual observations) among the organisations, each organisation’s analysis agent is capable of dynamically predicting its security risk level using a Bayesian network. A real-world implementation illustrates how our model can be used to manage security risks in distributed information systems and that sharing soft findings leads to lower expected loss from security risks.     

数字化医疗信息安全管理机制研究

目前,我国在医疗信息安全保障建设方面严重滞后,信息安全工作的战略统筹和综合协调不够,缺乏体系化的安全策略研究以及针对数字化医疗业务特点的管理机制研究。为了实现安全可信的医疗信息发展环境,笔者针对现有医疗信息系统中各个需要实施安全保护的目标,给出了在推动医疗信息安全保障体系建设方面应涉及的各项安全问题及管理机制,旨在构建一个全面涵盖了信息技术、组织策略、法律意识的整体性治理方案。