Market and Model Credit Default Swap Spreads: Mind the Gap!

Structural models of default establish a relation across the fair values of various asset classes (equity, bonds, credit derivatives) referring to the same company. In most circumstances such relation is verified in practice, as different financial assets tend to move in the same direction at similar speed. However, occasional deviations from the theoretical fair values occur, especially in times of financial turmoil. Understanding how the dynamics of the theoretical fair values of various assets compares to that of their market values is crucial to a number of market participants. This paper investigates whether a popular structural model, the CreditGrades approach proposed by Finger (2002) , Stamicar and Finger (2005) , succeeds in explaining the dynamic relation between equity/option variables and Credit Default Swap (CDS) premia at individual company level. We find that CDS model spreads display a significant correlation with CDS market spreads. However, the gap between the two is time varying and widens substantially in times of financial turbulence. The analysis of the gap dynamics reveals that this is partly due to episodes of decoupling between equity and credit markets, and partly due to shortcomings of the model. Finally, we observe that model spreads tend to predict market spreads.     

Immigrant–Native Differences in Welfare Participation: The Role of Entry and Exit Rates

We analyze differences in welfare transitions between natives and immigrants in Sweden using a large representative panel data set. The data contain administrative information on welfare use and detailed demographic information. The empirical results suggest that the main reason for the large immigrant–native welfare gap observed is the differences in welfare entry rates. Thus, policies aimed to reduce these transitions may be particularly successful in reducing welfare use in general and particularly the immigrant–native welfare gap.     

Access regulation and investment in next generation networks — A ranking of regulatory regimes

This paper analyses how different types of access regulation to next generation networks affect investments and consumer welfare. The model consists of an investment stage with uncertain returns and subsequent quantity competition. The access price is a function of investment costs and the regulatory regime. A regime with fully distributed costs or a regulatory holiday induces highest investments, followed by risk-sharing and long run incremental costs regulation. Simulations indicate that risk-sharing creates most consumer welfare, followed by regimes with fully distributed costs, regulatory holiday and long run incremental costs, respectively. Risk-sharing benefits consumers as it combines relatively high ex-ante investment incentives with strong ex-post competitive intensity.     

International variations in expected equity premia: Role of financial architecture and governance

Estimates of ex-ante equity premia are important in planning investments in pension funds, life insurance pools, and for other long-term financial obligations or goals. However, while global cross-border investment positions and flows have been rising, there is little research on non-US ex-ante equity premia or on their determinants in a global setting. This paper uses data on a recent 8-year period from 33 countries and models simultaneously our estimate of the ex-ante equity premium as a dependent variable and our measure of financial architecture as an instrumental variable. We document that ex-ante equity premia are larger in countries that have a more bank-oriented financial architecture, are wealthier, and have better governance. These results are robust to alternative model specifications and estimation techniques. Given the importance of equity premia and financial architecture, these results should be of much interest to scholars, managers, regulators, and policy makers.     

Product market pricing power, industry concentration and analysts’ earnings forecasts

This is the first study to establish a link between product market power and analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Relating two different dimensions of market power to earnings forecastability, we document that (a) a firm’s relative pricing power and (b) its industry concentration are strong positive determinants of analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy. We find that forecasting earnings of higher market power firms is less complex due to their ability to withstand cost shocks as well as greater informational-efficiency enjoyed by such firms. Further, forecast optimism increases with weakening product market pricing power and with lower industry concentration. The knowledge derived from this study will hopefully improve the accuracy of equity valuation, and thereby engender better buy-side (stock selections) and sell-side recommendations by analysts. Our analysis also suggests that brokerage firms compensating analysts based on forecast accuracy need to adjust for the differential in the information complexity of different industries.     

Sufficient conditions for expected utility to imply drawdown-based performance rankings

The least restrictive sufficient condition for expected utility to imply Sharpe ratio rankings is the location and scale (LS) property (see [Sinn, 1983] and [Meyer, 1987]). The normal, the extreme value, and many other distributions commonly used in finance satisfy this property. We argue that the LS property is also sufficient for expected utility to imply drawdown-based performance measure rankings, because for investment funds satisfying the LS condition, the Sharpe ratio and drawdown-based performance measures result in identical rankings. Hence, the same conditions that provide an expected utility foundation for the Sharpe ratio also provide a foundation for drawdown-based performance measures. We conclude that from a decision-theoretic perspective, drawdown-based performance measures are as good as the Sharpe ratio.     

Deregulation, liberalization and consolidation of the Mexican banking system: Effects on competition

This paper analyzes the evolution of competition in the Mexican banking system in the period 1993-2005, a period of deregulation, liberalization and consolidation of the sector. For this purpose we use two indicators of competition from the theory of industrial organization (the Lerner index and the Panzar and Rosse’s H-statistic). The empirical evidence does not permit us to reject the existence of monopolistic competition. The Lerner index shows a decrease in competitive rivalry in the deposit market and an increase in the loan market, a cross subsidization strategy being observed. The results obtained call into question the effectiveness of the measures implemented hitherto, aimed at increasing the competition of the Mexican banking system.     

Modeling and forecasting expected shortfall with the generalized asymmetric Student-t and asymmetric exponential power distributions

Financial returns typically display heavy tails and some degree of skewness, and conditional variance models with these features often outperform more limited models. The difference in performance may be especially important in estimating quantities that depend on tail features, including risk measures such as the expected shortfall. Here, using recent generalizations of the asymmetric Student-t and exponential power distributions to allow separate parameters to control skewness and the thickness of each tail, we fit daily financial return volatility and forecast expected shortfall for the S&P 500 index and a number of individual company stocks; the generalized distributions are used for the standardized innovations in a nonlinear, asymmetric GARCH-type model. The results provide evidence for the usefulness of the general distributions in improving fit and prediction of downside market risk of financial assets. Constrained versions, corresponding with distributions used in the previous literature, are also estimated in order to provide a comparison of the performance of different conditional distributions.     

When and why did eastern European economies begin to fail? Lessons from a Czechoslovak/UK productivity comparison, 1921–1991

Czechoslovak industrial labour productivity fluctuated around two-thirds of the UK level under the private sector regime between the wars. Under the central planning regime of the postwar period, Czechoslovakia's comparative productivity position initially improved to around three-quarters of the UK level by the early-1960s, before falling back. During the 1980s, the deterioration of Czechoslovakia's productivity performance accelerated sharply, falling to around one-third of the UK level. Central planning was able to achieve a satisfactory productivity performance during the era of mass production, but could not adapt to the requirements of flexible production technology during the 1980s.     

Can information and counseling help students from poor rural areas go to high school? Evidence from China

Recent studies have shown that only about two-thirds of the students from poor, rural areas in China finish junior high school and enter high school. One factor that may be behind the low rates of high school attendance is that students may be misinformed about the returns to schooling or lack career planning skills. We therefore conduct a cluster-randomized controlled trial (RCT) using a sample of 131 junior high schools and more than 12,000 students to test the effects of providing information on returns or career planning skills on student dropout, academic achievement and plans to go to high school. Contrary to previous studies, we find that information does not have significant effects on student outcomes. Unlike information, counseling does have an effect. However, the effect is somewhat surprising. Our findings suggest that counseling increases dropouts and seems to lower academic achievement. In our analysis of the causal chain, we conclude that financial constraints and the poor quality of education in junior high schools in poor, rural areas (the venue of the study) may be contributing to the absence of positive impacts on student outcomes from information and counseling. The negative effects of counseling on dropout may also be due to the high and growing wages for unskilled labor (high opportunity costs) in China’s transitioning economy. It is possible that when our counseling curriculum informed the students about the reality of how difficult were the requirements for entering academic high school, it may have induced them to revise their benefit-cost calculations and come to the realization that they are better off dropping out and/or working less hard in school.