个人所得税功能分析及政策选择

个人所得税是目前增长最快的税种之一 ,是政府用来干预、调节经济活动的重要经济杠杆和调节社会收入分配的重要工具 ,在发挥其作用的同时 ,却产生了对劳动力和私人储蓄的替代效应 ,从我国近几年的运行状况来看 ,个人所得税无论是从税制的最初设计还是征管方面存在着严重不足 ,在政策选择上宜采取综合所得征收制及双向申报制     

The impact of tax holidays on earnings management: An empirical study of corporate reporting behavior in a developing-economy framework

This study investigates whether foreign investment enterprises (FIEs) in China alter their corporate reporting behavior in response to a known schedule of tax-rate increases. The context of this investigation is a tax-incentive scheme that allows firms to pay taxes at a reduced rate for a limited period of time, and then at a higher rate when this period expires. If managers attempt to maximize firm value by minimizing tax costs, then the spread of tax rates in the periods surrounding the rate change may provide a substantial incentive for them to accelerate revenue and defer expenses. Consistent with this hypothesis, the empirical results indicate that firms report significantly higher discretionary current accruals for the years before tax-rate increases. The evidence, which indicates that firms manage earnings upward to take advantage of lower tax rates that are available in certain years, has important implications for tax policymakers.     

房地产三种评估价格的比较分析

简要的阐述了比准价格、收益价格、积算价格三种房地产评估价格的形成机理及理论依据，并从对一种观点的局限性分析出发，综合运用市场供求理论、均衡理论以及短边原则，对不同市场背景下三种估价方法得出的评估价格进行经济比较分析。     

中国贸易条件变动趋势分析——基于1993-2017年月度数据的研究

基于1993-2017年月度数据研究发现:中国三大贸易条件指数(2010=100)中价格贸易条件上下波动明显,标准差为6.0;收入贸易条件长期稳步上升,近三年相对于最高点下降了15%~20%;要素贸易条件一直呈上升趋势,标准差为66.2.人民币汇率一次性大幅度变动时,中国价格贸易条件有显著变动.人民币显著升值时,价格贸易条件马上明显改善,但维持时间不长,随后又发生逆转.人民币一次性大幅度贬值导致价格贸易条件长期恶化有一定的时滞.国外发生经济或金融危机而中国宏观经济较稳定发展期间,中国价格贸易条件改善.为此,我国应积极推动人民币汇率向均衡汇率靠拢,针对性地采取限产计划,以提升国际分工地位,从根本上改善贸易条件和增加经济福利.     

Deciphering big data in consumer credit evaluation

This paper examines the impact of large-scale alternative data on predicting consumer delinquency. Using a proprietary double-blinded test from a traditional lender, we find that the big data credit score predicts an individual’s likelihood of defaulting on a loan with 18.4% greater accuracy than the lender’s internal score. Moreover, the impact of the big data credit score is more significant when evaluating borrowers without public credit records. We also provide evidence that big data have the potential to correct financial misreporting.     

数字普惠金融的创业效应与收入不平等:数字鸿沟还是数字红利？

数字普惠金融与实体经济之间的关系受到学界广泛关注,但其究竟是普惠的数字红利还是金融领域的数字鸿沟,这是数字普惠金融快速发展中亟需回答的重要理论与现实问题。文章通过匹配宏观统计数据和微观调查数据,实证研究了数字普惠金融的发展对收入不平等的影响,并从创业效应这一渠道进行了机制分析。研究发现：数字普惠金融的发展总体上改善了收入不平等状况,而数字普惠金融的创业效应是影响收入不平等的重要渠道之一。进一步的中介效应分析表明,数字普惠金融的创业效应对收入不平等的影响存在异质性：数字普惠金融通过促进生存型创业从而改善了收入不平等,而数字普惠金融对机会型创业的促进却在一定程度上扩大了收入不平等。文章的研究结论对于理解数字普惠金融发展的正外部性以及如何缓解收入不平等提供了新的视角。     

Role of income diversification in reducing forest reliance: Evidence from 1838 rural households in China

Among a number of households worldwide, forest use and income diversification have been seen as substitute livelihood strategies: farmers with more diverse income sources face a higher opportunity cost in harvesting forests and so tend to rely less on forestry resources. The current study uses rural household survey data captured in the Chinese provinces of Fujian, Shaanxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi. It applies a Heckman regression model and a quantile regression model to determine the effect of income diversification on forest dependence. The three main findings of this study are as follows. (1) The mean income diversification index values in Fujian, Shaanxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi are 1.81, 1.46, 1.63, and 2.00, respectively; this indicates that livelihood activities within the study areas are limited. (2) When the income diversification index increases by 10%, the proportion of forest income to total income within the study areas decreases by 4–8%; this indicates that income diversification can significantly reduce a household's dependence on forest resources, especially among the poorest households. (3) For the top 20% of high-income households, the effect of income diversification on forest dependence is insignificant, but for the bottom 20% of low-income households, income diversification has a major impact in terms of reducing their forest reliance (6–10%). The findings of this study will help inform the design of alternative policies that could alleviate pressure relating to forest-resource protection.     

Does the labor-income process contain a unit root? Evidence from individual-specific time series

Calibrations of models related to life-cycle behavior of consumption and saving often invoke the important assumption of a unit root in individuals׳ labor-income process. We for the first time test this assumption using methods for univariate time series. Based on longitudinal register data from 1968 to 2005, we first estimate an autoregressive model for each individual using a method for approximately median-unbiased estimation. We then exploit the resulting distribution of the individual-specific estimates to draw inference about the presence of a unit root. Results indicate that earnings for the representative worker are governed by a process where shocks to earnings have moderate persistence and are both economically and statistically significantly different from having permanent effects. These results question the heavy use of unit-root processes for earnings.     

Does a lower (higher) labour force participation rate imply greater (lower) income tax evasion? An exploratory empirical inquiry for the U.S.

This exploratory study seeks to add to the income tax evasion literature by investigating a heretofore ignored potential determinant of aggregate federal personal income tax evasion in the U.S., namely, the labour force participation rate. It is hypothesized that the higher (lower) the labour force participation rate, the lower (greater) the degree of tax evasion. The empirical estimation supports this hypothesis, finding that a one unit (one percentage point) increase (decrease) in the labour force participation rate leads to a 9.1% decrease (increase) in income tax evasion. Thus, the declining labour force participation in recent years implies increased tax evasion problems for the U.S.     

FINANCE,DISTRIBUTION AND THE ECONOMIC OBJECTIVE OF FINANCIAL COOPERATIVE INSTITUTIONS

This paper proposes a model where the structure rather than the size of the financial sector explains its influence on income distribution. Because of information asymmetries, a financial sector dominated solely by profit‐maximizing financial intermediaries will increase income and wealth inequality as it gives preferential access to credit for high‐income agents, whereas a diversified inclusive financial sector with alternative models of finance, like cooperatives, will reduce the inequality gap. No full convergence in income distribution can be realized through finance only and there is still a need for redistribution policies. Accordingly, an objective function for cooperative financial institutions should define a desired pricing behaviour that can increase the income of members at a rate higher than the average growth rate of the economy.