Bilateral Trade Balances: Evidence from Malaysia*

This study examines the impacts of real exchange rates on the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia with the USA, Japan and Singapore. The results for the long‐run cointegrating vectors show that depreciation or devaluation of real exchange rates will improve bilateral trade balances. In the short run, there is some evidence of the J‐curve phenomenon. Changes in real money supply contribute greatly to changes in real exchange rates. Generally, changes in real exchange rates contribute significantly to changes in bilateral trade balances. Monetary policy can be used to influence bilateral trade balances.     

我国商业银行按揭贷款的久期测度研究

随着对用按揭贷款的方式购买房屋、车等大件商品的市场需求变失,我国商业银行推行越来越多的灵活的各种按揭贷款还款方式。针对商业银行目前主要推行的固定利率下的等额本息还款、等额本金还款、等额递增（递减）还款和“双周供”还款的现金流建模,并对这些模型进行久期和凸度测度,最后针对银行如何利用久期和凸度进行利率风险管理提出建议。     

准静止状态下的高空平台实时业务信道分配

受平台准静止状态的影响,高空平台（HAPS）通信网络内存在大量的切换呼叫,且业务量动态变化。HAPS网络可传输多种业务,其中实时业务在切换过程中具有较高的时延要求。通过为切换呼叫预留信道可降低平台不稳定对服务质量（QoS）造成的影响。在基于服务优先级的多业务信道分配算法基础上,重点对实时业务的信道分配算法进行改进,提出了一种基于概率的预留信道借用策略。该算法可根据网络内业务量的实时统计数据控制新呼叫业务的准入。仿真结果表明：与固定预留信道算法和门限预留信道算法相比,该算法能够适应网络内业务量的动态变化,在保证切换呼叫掉线率满足期望值的条件下提升系统的整体性能,降低平台不稳定造成的性能损失。     

Air Afrique: the demise of a continental icon

Although the rationale for multi-flag airlines' formation is rooted in contemporary strategic thinking, our understanding of their emergence and subsequent mass disappearances in the twentieth century remains an elusive issue. This article seeks to fill this void by examining the emergence, ascendency and demise of Air Afrique, an airline once seen as a symbol of regional integration in Africa. This examination takes a historical perspective and covers the period from 1961 to 2002. On the basis of this historical analysis, five distinct stages have been identified reflecting the firm's glorious days, precipitous decline and subsequent collapse. These are: the golden age; Africanisation; escalating indecision, escalating commitment and dissolution phases. Each phase provides insights into the deterministic and voluntaristic perspectives of organisational failure. The implications of the findings of this research for theory and practice are discussed.     

Transactions,standardisation and competition: Establishing uniform sizes in the British wire industry c.1880

When science could not provide a solution to transaction problems in the British wire industry c.1880, market groups had to negotiate a business solution. This involved converging towards a ‘one-size-fits-all’ standard: a process requiring compromises and cooperation between competitive firms, and solving coordination failure through state intervention. This paper demonstrates how different groups held different notions of ‘ideal’ standards depending on the incentives they faced. Reconciling these differences was an institutional, rather than a technological, process. The paper also analyses why, historically, dominant producers cooperated to set industry standards when faced with an imminent lock-in on ‘wrong’ standards imposed on the industry.     

汇率升值对产出的作用机制与效果文献述评

汇率升值会从多个渠道影响一国的产出水平,并通过不同渠道不同方向产出不同作用,但从理论和实证角度都难以直接确定其产出的最终作用方向.从实证角度分析,汇率升值对产出的作用方向也并无定论,研究对象的不同,研究时间区间的差异是造成研究结论分化的重要原因,但在研究中没有很好地解决内生性问题也是造成结果出现偏差,进而容易得出“紧缩性贬值”结论的一个重要原因.     

我国外贸出口将逐步陷入长期困境

2011年下半年以来,我国外贸出口增长率急剧下降,2012年2月还出现了多年未见的贸易逆差。通过对宏观经济的全面研究,由于我国物流成本居高不下,人力、资源、土地、环境等成本不断增长,主要出口目的地欧美市场萎靡不振、新兴市场开发缓慢,替代竞争者成长迅速,税收体系不合理,生产效率低下,人民币持续升值,这些都必将导致我国外贸出口越来越陷入困境。要解决这些问题,我国经济必须在制度层面进行彻底改革,进行产业升级,开发出一系列能够带动我国乃至世界经济走出困境的新兴产业,占领世界经济发展的制高点。     

全固态PDM发射机的运行，维护与故障处理

近几年来,全固态中波发射机逐步取代了真空电子管发射机成为主流,大大地节省了发射台的日常运行费用和能源消耗,提高了安全播出质量,降低了停播率,减轻了机房工作人员的劳动强度。本文就是针对全固态中波广播发射机的使用与维护及日常运行环境进行粗浅的介绍。