How much informal credit lending responded to monetary policy in China? The case of Wenzhou

This study investigates empirically what the major factors are which have driven Wenzhou's informal credit market and how much that market is responsive to monetary policies and the formal banking conditions nationwide. A number of relatively stable factors have been identified from this volatile market through a careful exploration of a monthly survey data set for the period of 2003–2011. The main findings are: (i) Wenzhou's informal credit lending rates are highly receptive to monetary policies; (ii) Wenzhou's market is dominantly demand driven; (iii) Wenzhou's informal lending is substitutive to bank savings in the short run but complementary to banking lending in the long run; and (iv) Wenzhou's market is complementary to excessive investments in the local real estate market.     

我国民间融资的风险性研究

民间融资是对供给不足的正规金融的一种有益补充,已成为我国金融市场的重要组成部分。然而,受经济下行和政策调控的影响,民间融资风险日益显现,并引发了一系列经济社会问题。本文结合我国当前的民间融资现状,对其风险性问题进行研究,并结合国际经验探索民间融资规范化发展的措施。     

FORMAL AND INFORMAL SECTORS IN CHINA AND INDIA

This paper discusses the estimation of a social accounting matrix that distinguishes between formal and informal activities for China and India for 2000 and 1998–99 respectively. Wage shares for formal/informal employment in China and net domestic product shares for organized/unorganized sectors in India are used as weights to calculate the size of the two sectors. The proposed methodology is a first step towards an integrated approach to account for the dualism of many economies in the developing world. The results can serve as data input for any policy-driven CGE model for developing countries.     

为什么民间金融市场在中国重要？

本文构建一个信息不对称的寡头垄断的融资模型来研究民间金融市场。研究表明,当投资者的监督强度较高时,均衡融资利率较低,融资额较大,企业家投资好项目;反之,均衡融资利率较高,融资额较小,企业家投资坏项目。在中国农村地区,因为投资者和企业家之间的相互了解程度较高,且企业家往往投资于生产技术相对落后的劳动密集型产品,所以投资者易于监督企业家。因此,民间金融市场均衡是低利率、高融资额、企业家投资好项目的均衡。这样,本文可以部分地解释Allen et al．（2005）的经验研究结果：在中国,虽然法律没有很好地保护投资者利益,但民间金融市场发达,支持着非正规部门的发展。本文的研究还表明,可能正是低效率的正规金融体制才导致高利率均衡的存在,从而易于诱发地方性的金融危机。因此,政府可以通过提高正规金融体制效率和建立中小民营银行来有效地遏制地方性金融危机。     

Sustainable livelihood principles and urban greening in informal settlements in practice: A case of Zandspruit informal settlement,South Africa

This article looks to investigate the practice of using the ‘sustainable livelihood approach’ in a multifaceted urban greening project, Trees for Homes. The urban greening project was implemented to improve the quality of life and help marginalised citizens of an informal settlement in South Africa to adapt to climate variability through tree planting. We explored the actual execution of the independent techniques being utilised in the implementation of the Trees for Homes project and how it can promote sustainable livelihood objectives in the Zandspruit informal settlement in South Africa. Using a qualitative approach, the study was able to effectively apply sustainable livelihood principles. It was also found, however, that the multi-level principle was limited by the lack of political muscle which is endemic to many disempowered poor citizens of developing economies. Although the project was successful in many ways, political vulnerability within the development cycle threatens the longer term sustainability of the project outcomes.     

What policies to combat labour informality? Evidence from Mexico

Informality often concerns policymakers due to its negative implications on productivity and poverty. In recent years, the extent of informal employment has diverged across Mexican states. Varying informal employment dynamics within a comparable institutional environment offers scope to identify policies that can reduce informality. This paper uses cross-state panel and individual data to examine the determinants of informal employment, exploiting the diverging outcomes across states, industries and time. The results suggest that there is no ‘silver bullet’ to combat informality, yet a package of policies promoting labour skills, encouraging foreign investment, enhancing tax enforcement and deterring corruption can reduce informal employment. Intriguingly, reducing the cost to start a business is found to have a non-linear effect on informal employment, conditional on the prevalence of microenterprises.     

大城市边缘区人居环境系统演变的动力机制——以广州市为例

在快速城市化的进程中,作为城市化前沿地带,大城市边缘区人居环境系统的演变受诸多因素的影响,探讨其动力机制可以为人居环境优化调控提供理论依据.以广州市为例,从不同角度将人居环境演变动力划分为三类,宏观层面的动力(城市化、全球经济一体化、科学技术发展、市场体制的确立);政府层面的驱动力(户籍制度改革、土地制度改革、住房制度改革、城镇发展政策、城市空间重构、产业结构调整、行政区划调整、大型项目投资);城市内部不同地域相互作用力(核心区推力、乡村推力、边缘区自身吸引力),并构建了综合动力机制的概念模型.     

影响中国房地产市场发展的主要制度安排研究

影响我国房地产市场的主要制度安排有五种:房地产住房供给和保障制度、房地产土地供给制度、房地产金融制度、房地产税收制度和存在于我国居民购房行为中的非正式制度。本文对这些制度安排的主要内容及其变迁做了分析,并研究了这些制度安排对我国房地产发展的影响。     

专用性人力资本与非正式制度激励

自主创新是国防科技工业发展的灵魂,但发现和创新不可能是无源之水、无本之木.自主创新需要坚实基础,这个坚实基础就是国防科技专用性人力资本的投资水平.然而,由于专用性投资固有的“套牢”和“敲竹杠”问题,员工一般自发进行专用性人力资本投资量总是不足,这一点可以从相对较高的国防科技人才流动率上窥豹一斑.文章通过构建国防科技专用性人力资本投资的“囚徒困境”模型,说明了国防科技专用性人力资本自主性投资不足的现状,并针对此现状,分析了非正式制度的基本功能,剖析了非正式制度对于国防科技专用性人力资本投资的激励机理,最终得出结论:在国防科技工业组织内,构建积极向上的合作性的非正式制度,不失为激励理性的国防科技人员积极投身于自身专用性人力资本的一个好办法.     

Does crime deter South Africans from self-employment?

The very high crime rate in South African cities is often argued to be the main reason for the country's small share of business ownership and self-employment. This paper revisits this hypothesis. We estimate the effect of crime on business ownership and performance using a matched dataset of census, survey and police data. In contrast to previous studies, which take into account perceived rather than actual crime and often focus on specific geographic areas, we do not find robust evidence that high crime rates have a negative impact on business ownership. Even though our estimate of the effect of crime is statistically significant and negative, it is economically small. Further, we find no evidence for a negative effect of actual crime on sales, profits and investment of informal businesses. This may imply that the low share of business ownership and self-employment in South Africa must have other reasons. These results may also suggest that crime may not be in general a serious threat for small businesses in low and middle-income countries, however, this needs further empirical research.